Schwarzenegger Holds Steady Lead in New Poll

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is leading state Treasurer Phil Angelides by 18 points in a new Public Policy Institute of California poll released tonight. The poll shows Schwarzenegger with 48% of Californians surveyed compared to 30% for Angelides. Significantly, Angelides has lost ground in the Democratic Bay Area but gained considerable ground with Latinos. Only 57% of Democrats said they supported Angelides. Full details after the jump.

From the PPIC:

"Likely voters continue to name immigration (21%) and education (19%) as the issues they most want the candidates for governor to discuss, followed by the state budget and taxes (10%), and jobs and the economy (7%). But two weeks before election day, and in the wake of the sole gubernatorial debate, most voters (60%), and at least half of Democrats (67%), Republicans (50%), and independents (60%), say they are dissatisfied with the attention that gubernatorial candidates are giving to the issues.

And the level of frustration has grown since September, when 54% of voters said the candidates weren't spending enough time talking about important issues. This neglect of issues may have affected voter engagement: Although 74% of voters say they are following news about the election, only 19% say they are following this news very closely. That is similar to interest levels prior to the historic low turnout in November 2002 (22% in October 2002) but down significantly from more recent years (49% in September 2003, 61% in October 2004, and 31% in October 2005).

Among likely voters, Schwarzenegger's lead over Democratic challenger and State Treasurer Phil Angelides has remained steady. Angelides trails Schwarzenegger by 18 points (30% to 48%), similar to last month's margin of 17 points (31% to 48%). Thirteen% of voters remain undecided.

However, since last month, Angelides has lost some ground in the San Francisco Bay Area, a key Democratic stronghold: Although the candidates were tied in this region one month ago (39% each), Schwarzenegger now leads Angelides by a six-point margin (40% to 34%). Schwarzenegger continues to pull much greater support from Republicans (86%) than Angelides does from Democrats (57%), and Republicans remain far more satisfied than Democrats with their choice of candidates (66% to 44%). A bright spot for Angelides? His support among Latino voters has soared: He is now favored over Schwarzenegger by a 2-to-1 margin (52% to 25%), compared to a 12-point margin in September (42% to 30%).

Proposition 1B ($19.9 billion transportation bond): Despite the fact that 80% of likely voters say it is very or somewhat important for the state to be spending public funds on surface transportation projects in their part of the state, this measure is favored by a bare majority of voters (51%) and 38% oppose it. Support for Proposition 1B is unchanged from last month (51%).

Proposition 1C ($2.85 billion affordable housing bond): 56% of likely voters support this measure, while 34% are opposed. Support was similar in September (57%). Sixty-seven% of likely voters say it is important that the state spend public funds on affordable housing projects in their region.

Proposition 1D ($10.4 billion education facilities bond): 87% of likely voters consider state spending on school facilities important to their region, and 61% say it is very important. However, the fate of Proposition 1D is uncertain, with 51% of likely voters favoring the measure and 39% opposing it. Support for the measure has changed little since last month (49%).

Proposition 1E ($4.1 billion water and flood control bond): 53% of likely voters say they would vote yes on this measure, while 36% oppose it. Support for this measure has changed little since September (55%). Despite the lukewarm support for the measure, most likely voters (77%) believe state spending on water and flood control is important for their region.

A fifth measure — Proposition 84 — would provide about $5.4 billion in state bonds for water, flood control, natural resources, parks, and conservation projects. Voters remain split over this initiative (42% yes, 43% no).

Californians find little to cheer about as they consider the national scene. Six in 10 state residents (62%) say things are going in the wrong direction. They are divided about the nation's economic outlook, with 46% anticipating bad times and 44% expecting good times. And approval ratings for President George W. Bush remain very low: Far more state residents and likely voters disapprove (62% each) than approve (32% all residents, 34% likely voters) of his performance in office. Could it get any worse? It just did. Trust in the federal government reached a new low this month: Only 26% of state residents — and 23% of likely voters — say they can trust the government in Washington to do what is right just about always or most of the time. That is down from 46% in January 2002 and 29% in October 2005. Consistent with their harsh assessment of federal leadership, most Californians (65%) and likely voters (69%) say the federal government wastes a lot of their tax dollars.

Against this bleak backdrop, Californians want to see change at the national level come this November. A majority of likely voters (55%) say they would prefer to see Democrats control Congress. Statewide, Democratic congressional candidates hold a 12-point edge over Republican candidates (48% to 36%). This represents an increase in the Democratic advantage since October 2000, when Democrats held a seven-point statewide lead among likely voters (47% to 40%). Another example of the desire for change? In four key areas of federal leadership, Democrats are now seen as more capable than Republicans. Californians believe they would do a better job of managing the economy (47% Democrats, 37% Republicans), handling the situation in Iraq (45% Democrats, 34% Republicans), handling immigration (41% Democrats, 36% Republicans), and protecting the environment (56% Democrats, 28% Republicans).

The current favor for Democrats notwithstanding, a long-term challenge looms for the two-party system. Majorities of Californians (53%) and likely voters (56%) believe that the Republican and Democratic parties do such a poor job of representing the American people that a third major party is needed. Independents (72%) are far more likely than Democrats (52%) and Republicans (45%) to believe a third party is needed, but the numbers of voters who hold this view are significant across the board.

Californians are divided about the direction of the state, with 44% saying it is headed in the right direction and 46% believing it is headed in the wrong direction. One year ago, perceptions of the direction of the state were far more negative (30% right, 60% wrong in October 2005). The view of the state economy is also brighter today: Half of state residents (50%) and likely voters (52%) expect good times in the coming year. Last October, only 34% of Californians and 35% of likely voters expressed optimism about the state's economic future.

Among likely voters today, 52% approve and 41% disapprove of the way Governor Schwarzenegger is doing his job — a dramatic improvement from one year ago (38% approve, 57% disapprove). Likely voters are far less forgiving when it comes to the state legislature: Today, only 26% approve and 61% disapprove of its performance. In October 2005, 21% of likely voters approved and 65% disapproved of the way the legislature was doing its job.

Earlier this year, lawmakers considered the idea of a ballot measure combining redistricting reform and term limits reform. How would such a measure fare in today's political climate? Today, majorities of state residents (54%) and likely voters (59%) favor redistricting reform that would require an independent commission of citizens, rather than the governor and state legislature, to adopt a new redistricting plan after each Census. However, there is little support for even modest changes to term limits laws. Seven in 10 Californians (72%) and likely voters (73%) oppose the idea of allowing members of the state legislature to serve up to 14 years of total legislative service in either the assembly or senate.

Californians' affection for the initiative process is strong, but it is not blind. State residents are open to several significant reforms. More than seven in 10 residents (72%) and likely voters (73%) favor a system of review and revision of proposed initiatives in order to avoid legal and drafting errors. Similar numbers of residents and likely voters (75% each) favor having a period of time during which the sponsor of a proposed initiative and the legislature could meet to seek a compromise before the initiative goes to the ballot. Most Californians (75%) and likely voters (82%) favor public disclosure of funding sources for signature gathering efforts and initiative campaigns. Finally, 53% of state residents and 48% of likely voters favor extending the amount of time a sponsor has to gather signatures to qualify an initiative for the ballot.

Findings are based on a telephone survey of 2,002 California adult residents interviewed between Oct. 15 and Oct. 22, 2006. Interviews were conducted in English or Spanish. The sampling error for the total sample is plus or minus 2%. The sampling error for the 1076 likely voters is plus or minus 3%."