California Divided

Some good news for pessimists today: California is headed toward a political system dominated by a white minority which votes and sets public policy at the ballot box, while Latinos and other ethnic groups that make up the majority of California's population sit on the sidelines.

That's the message from a new survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California, which found that the state's "electorate does not reflect the size, the growth or the diversity of California's population."

In short, the vast influx of new Californians — mainly Latinos — are not showing up at the ballot box. Some can't get registered because of their immigration status; others just aren't engaged. The state is about 32% Latino, but when it comes to flexing their muscle at the ballot box, only about one in six adult Latinos is considered likely to vote.

White people are expected to be only one-third of the state's adults in 2040, the report said. But their power at the ballot box will remain strong — still representing a majority of voters in 25 years.

"We could be headed toward a dominance of the minority," said Mark Baldasarre, director of research for the PPIC.

Today, the voter who most reliably turns out to cast a ballot is a white, over 45-year-old homeowner, with a household income of more than $60,000. Californians who are not registered to vote are more likely Latino under-45 renters earning far less money.

Here is the rundown:

Not registered to vote:		Likely voters:
Latino 63% Black 3% Asian 8% White 24% Other 2%		White 72% Latino 14% Black 6% Asian 5% Other 3%

The PPIC said this disparity "can raise serious questions about the legitimacy of the democratic system." What does that mean for public policy?

If everyone voted, the state likely would see more government spending and higher taxes. It would overhaul Proposition 13's property tax cap and overturn term limits for lawmakers. It likely would approve $3 billion in affordable housing bonds on the November ballot.

And Arnold Schwarzenegger would have a much more difficult re-election fight — nonvoters dislike him far more than regular voters. In May, according to the PPIC, 61% of nonvoters said they disapproved of the governoror's performance, compared to 48% of the regular voters.

UPDATE: The Prop. 1C campaign -- affordable housing bond -- noted that a new PPIC poll shows 57% support from regular voters.

Comments

[truth machine]

"I've read Salladay's blog once, twice, then three times. My conclusion is it's blatant racism."

Then you're a moron.

"Now, along comes Salladay, with his 'white makes right ' attitude."

He didn't express any such attitude. Perhaps you should read it a fourth time.

[SFBrianCL]

As a fellow California blogger (Calitics), I understand what you are trying to say. It was sloppy wording though. Just take it as a lesson and move on.

[lone star]

Oh for Christ's sake! This is the kind of liberal hand-wringing that gets on my nerves, and I am a freakin' liberal.

The guy did not write a racist article. The opening line, while perhaps poorly worded, came across as sarcasm. A further reading of the whole piece makes this clear.

I can't believe this was front-paged at Kos.