El Nino forecast stirs up recollections of the crazy 1997-98 phenomenon

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center last week issued a report stating: "While there is disagreement on the eventual strength of El Niño, nearly all of the dynamical models predict a moderate-to-strong El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2009-10."

If the models are accurate, we're in for some crazy times -- some good, some bad -- along the West Coast.

The last powerful El Niño event was 1997-98. Some might recall the flooding associated with abundant rainfall, but surfers, skiers, snowboarders, fishermen and marine mammal enthusiasts might remember the massive swells, extreme snowfall, visits by exotic species and a devastating impact on seals and sea lions.

Here are a few random snapshots from that episode:

San Clemente Ocean Festival this weekend

Those looking to beat the heat this weekend might want to check out the 33rd annual San Clemente Ocean Festival, taking place Saturday and Sunday adjacent to the pier.

There will be a myriad of things to see and do, including fishing clinics and derbies, surfing and body-boarding contests, a woody car show and a pancake breakfast each morning griddled by San Clemente city lifeguards.

The main event will be the California Waterman and Waterwoman Championships, with competition taking place each day in sports such as distance and stand-up paddle-boarding, ocean kayak racing and biathlon.

There will also be plenty of activities for kids. A special pavilion will offer carnival games, face painting, ocean crafts and relay races. The Discovery Science Center and the Ocean Institute will also have booths offering various educational activities and projects.

The finale event will be the Great Rubber Duck Race at 4 p.m. Sunday. Festival attendees can purchase and decorate rubber ducks, which will be turned loose near the pier, with prizes awarded for ducks that reach the shore first.

Parking near the pier is limited, so complimentary parking and round-trip shuttle service will be available at San Clemente high school, located at 700 Avenida Pico.

-- Kelly Burgess

Photo: Katie O'Keefe climbs the portable rock wall at a San Clemente Ocean Festival. Credit: Geraldine Wilkins / Los Angeles Times

Report: Hawaii's tourism industry in state of crisis

The stock market has posted gains for a third consecutive day, but there are scant positive signs elsewhere for the beleaguered economy.

There remains significant trouble in paradise, where diminished airline and cruise ship service combined with a global financial collapse have Hawaii reeling more than other areas not so dependent on tourism.

An article in the Honolulu Star-Bulletin quoted economist Leroy Laney as saying Hawaii's visitor services industry is in "crisis mode." Laney's commissioned report paints a bleak picture not expected to begin improving until perhaps 2011.

"While there may be some recovery in the Hawaii visitor industry in 2010, the increase in arrivals will likely remain almost flat, in the very low single digits at best, for 2010," Laney said. "We can hope for better performance in 2011, but the increase in arrivals may still remain in the low single digits."

Tourism accounts for a quarter of Hawaii's gross domestic product and one-third of its jobs. Visitation was down last year 10.8%, which meant $113 million less in the state's general fund.

"It is imperative that all possible actions be taken to remedy the situation," Laney said. "If that does not happen, or until it does, the Hawaii economy will remain anemic. Employment in all sectors will be down, as will tax revenues, business profits, and overall economic well-being."

What those actions might be remains unclear. All segments are suffering. Job creation is difficult.

Mike McCartney, the new president of the Hawaii Tourism Authority, has a monumental task before him — kind of like paddling across the Molokai Channel in a hurricane. Hopefully, he and fellow islanders will be able to ride this storm out without enduring too much pain and suffering.

—Pete Thomas

Photo: Diamond Head looms over beachgoers on Oahu. Tourism is down throughout Hawaii.

Credit: Lawrence K. Ho / Los Angeles Times

Australia's spate of shark attacks takes center stage in and around Sydney

At a time when alleged shark sightings are on the rise off Southern California -- it happens every spring -- swimmers and surfers appear to have far more reason to be concerned in Australia and particularly off New South Wales, which includes Sydney.

There have been 52 reported attacks on humans since 2000. Eight occurred in waters off Sydney or nearby, creating a mini-"Jaws"-like scenario but doing little to keep surfers out of the water, especially during the Australian summer.

A story in Friday's edition of the Daily Telegraph cited figures released last week by state officials reviewing a beach netting program designed to keep sharks at bay. Thankfully, rather than fueling hysteria, the panel concluded that the increased number of attacks -- they've soared 28% since the 1970s -- was simply because more people were venturing into the water.

(Since 1791, there have been 222 shark attacks logged in New South Wales waters, about one-third resulting in fatalities.)

The panel lacked data to calculate a possible increase in the actual threat of an attack.

But NSW faces a dilemma nonetheless. There has been a long-standing campaign against coastal nets because they imperil not only sharks but whales, dolphins and sea birds. Unfortunately for sharks, the state will consider using baited hooks beneath floating drums to try to minimize the threat of shark attacks. This is done in Queensland and South Africa.

Fortunately, off Southern California, where, according to the Shark Research Committee, there have been 13 shark attacks since 2000 (including the lone fatal assault on a swimmer last April off Solana Beach), there is no netting program and no talk of baited hooks.

As should be the case everywhere, swimmers and surfers must assume risk whenever and wherever they enter the sharks' realm.

-- Pete Thomas

Photo: David Fleetham / Discovery Channel

Great white sharks: Are they becoming a scary nuisance off Southern California?

If a lot of angry citizens knew what I know, they might suggest an appropriate retreat for AIG executives exacting million-dollar bonuses from bailout money: a long-distance swimming race with no lifelines, originating two miles off Newport Beach.

Here's what I know: This is the season for increased shark sightings off Southern California. More people are venturing into the ocean and juvenile white sharks -- before they become great white sharks -- utilize local waters as a nursery area during the spring.

The fatal attack on a swimmer off Solana Beach last April remains fresh in the minds of some. And two fishermen last week saw what they estimated to be an 18-foot shark, five feet wide, swimming with the confidence of an apex predator two miles beyond Newport Beach.

Steven Lockhart and Aaron Hix reported the sighting to Ralph S. Collier, who runs the Shark Research Committee, which keeps track of attacks and witness accounts off the Pacific Coast of North America.

There's more:

Manny Ramirez rejects $25-million contract offer---who cares?

News item: Manny Ramirez rejects the Dodgers' $25-million one-year proposal.

Reaction: How do you think this kind of news feels to all those fans -- and I mean virtually all of those fans -- who have lost their jobs or are worried about losing their jobs?

Major league baseball ought to take these dealings out of the public eye or people ought to find something more worthwhile to do with their free time, such as getting outdoors and enjoying cheaper and healthier pastimes like hiking, climbing, fishing, surfing, snowboarding, skiing or bird-watching.

I for one am finding it increasingly difficult to support big-time athletes who earn obscene salaries -- and whine through their agents when they aren't quite obscene enough -- while a growing number of ordinary hard-working Americans are jobless or out on the street.

Sure, baseball is entertainment and top entertainers demand millions. But you don't see -- or at least I don't see -- actors or their agents squabbling over such grossly high contracts in public.

Baseball is notorious for this, and the Manny money headlines are sickening to me during a gloomy economic period during which teachers, nurses, salesmen, truck drivers and people in just about every regular line of work are deeply concerned about how they're going to get by.

I think I'll skip baseball this year and support state parks and their incredible hiking trails instead. Spring training will be spent on my surfboard or alongside a trout stream. Summer weekends will be enjoyed on the beach, not at the ballpark, and the fall classic might be fighting a giant tuna at one of the outer banks.

Now that will be something to cheer about.

--Pete Thomas

A Christmas wish list, checked twice

A Christmas wish, brief version, minus materialistic desires:

-- May this latest storm further blanket our mountains, for the benefit of skiers, snowboarders and resort operators. More important, may it saturate a landscape that remains so parched that creeks remain dry and waterfalls without cascades. We need lots  of precipitation in 2008-09.

-- May the economy improve sooner rather than later. This would be our Christmas miracle. Being forced from a home onto the street is the worst possible kind of outdoors experience, and it should not be happening.

-- May children receive more gifts that introduce them to our spectacular natural resources--surfboards, skis, snowboards, hiking boots, binoculars, tents, fishing poles, etc.--and fewer computerized gadgets that contribute to obesity and create a disconnect between kids and their parents.

-- May more parents get out of the house with their children, to a lake shore, a state park, aboard a whale-watch boat or wherever there is sky and a vast surrounding. Most outdoor activities are inexpensive. Generate fond memories. Instill an appreciation for open spaces and critters that inhabit them. You won't regret it.

-- May Japan and other whaling nations stop the slaughter. Most if not all species of whales were on the brink of extinction at one point in our recent history. Haven't they been through enough?

-- May people lose the taste for shark fin soup. Unlike whales, sharks are being driven methodically to extinction because of the demand for this so-called delicacy and the brutal practice of "finning" live sharks. This is perilous for sharks and the environment. Is a bowl of soup worth all this?

-- May more people go green. May we see fewer Hummers and Suburbans and more hybrids. May the warming trend reverse (another miracle, please) and may the polar bears somehow survive the shrinking of their icy realm. People are trying, and that's a positive first step.

-- May at least some of your Chritmas wishes come true. Happy holidays, everyone. May better times prevail in 2009!

-- Pete Thomas

Photo credit: Greg Zook, Big Bear Lake Resort Assn.

Barack Obama now a major tourist attraction in Hawaii

Sen. Barack Obama is no Duke Kahanamoku, the man who popularized modern surfing in Hawaii.

But the Hawiian-born president-elect is just as popular, and the Hawaii Visitors and Convention Bureau today launched a website revealing to tourists many of the places Obama frequented while growing up or during recent trips to Oahu.

They include the Kapiolani Medical Center for Women and Children, where Obama was born on Aug. 4, 1961.

The man who will become the 44th president of the United States attended Punahou School from fifth grade through graduation.

Some of his favorite hangouts are Puu Ualakaa State Park, on Mt. Tantalus; Kapiolani Park, on the outskirts of Waikiki; and Sandy Beach, a bodysurfing paradise.

Visitors might want to stop in for ice cream at Baskin-Robbins on South King Street. Obama once worked there. In Honolulu, tourists also might try a traditional plate lunch at the Rainbow Drive-In or Zippy's, which are two of Obama's favorite places to eat.