Mexico's drug war doesn't add up as a safety threat to tourists

I recently booked a May round-trip Alaska Airlines flight to and from Cabo San Lucas for a base price of $150.00. The after-tax rate of $249 is perhaps the lowest I've paid for a trip to Land's End in 20 years.

Of course if you've watched the news, you know that Mexico is now ruled entirely by drug lords and crooked cops. I'll have to dodge bullets, inspect shadows for kidnappers and check my fish cooler for human heads.

But sometimes you just have to let caution fly and have some fun....

Seriously, the U.S. media, despite admirable coverage of most aspects of Mexico's high-profile drug war, have frightened thousands into believing they face certain peril if they set foot in Mexico.

In truth, many stand at least as good a chance of becoming a murder victim in or near their own communities.

So implies Frank Koughan, executive editor of the Burro Hall website and a former producer for CBS News' "60 Minutes."

In a recent blog post, Koughan, who for nearly three years has lived in Queretaro on mainland Mexico, repeated a point I've stressed often on Outposts: That the vast majority of the 7,000 or so people murdered in Mexico during the past 16 months were involved in the illicit drug trade or worked for law enforcement agencies fighting the narco war.

Koughan cites U.S. State Department records from January 2005 through 2007. They show that 669 Americans died "non-natural deaths" in Mexico during a period in which Mexico received about 45 million visits by U.S. citizens. "Based on these numbers," Koughan writes, "the survival rate for Americans in Mexico would appear to be 99.9986%."

Many of those deaths were the result of accidents such as car crashes and drownings -- Cabo beaches are notorious for the latter during the hurricane season -- and some were listed as suicides.

As for murders, those State Department figures list 126, which Koughan states is "just slightly less than the 45,000 killed north of the border during the same period.... So while your chances of not dying here may be 99.9986%, your chances of not being murdered here are 99.9997%."

Throw in the fact that many homicide victims -- same with kidnap victims -- were themselves involved in the drug trade, and Mexico appears even safer for tourists. Far safer, at least, than many have been led to believe.

Of course, tourists still must exercise common sense. Stumbling drunk through town at 3 a.m., a common spectacle in Cabo, is an invitation for trouble no matter where you are.

-- Pete Thomas

Top photo: El Arco frames the Cabo San Lucas shoreline. Credit: Geraldine Wilkins / Los Angeles Times. Bottom photo: Noted surf angler Jeff Klassen displays a snapper caught on the Pacific side of the Baja California peninsula. Credit: Pete Thomas / Los Angeles Times

Comments

[contrina ocampo]

I am trying to find out about crime and the drug cartels there in Tequisquiapan. Also, I want to know how the police are there. If the military are incharge. How do they treat Americans?

[WALT]

I was in Marina Puerto Salina when over 700 bikers took part in the Rosarito to
Ensenada bicycle race. Nobody killed. April 16. 2009
Over 260 boats, approximately 6 crew per boat, April 24,2009. in the Newport to
Ensenada Race.
Almost daily cruise ships in Ensenada, please give me the tourist death count.

American living in Baja are really pissed over the negative publicity from the USA
media. They don't hip the daily deaths in L.A. and surrounding communities.
More people die here in one month, than tourist, in a year, in Baja.

Use common sense when in other countries, just as you would here.

I will conintue to go to Baja and my friends will to. Baja Mar is a great place to
golf.

[Laura]

Ok heads rolling at a night club, first of all were heads of drugdealers, second of all it was in a bar frequented by the rival cartel. If this is were you people like to party and hang out then yes, stay away. I live in L.A. and I don't hang around in Compton or Crenshaw. It is the exact same thing. We all know there are places in EVERY city in EVERY country that you have to avoid. And when you do travel, you need to be cautious as a tourist, no matter which country you are in. I've been to Ensenada and Mexico City in the past year and nothing has happened. The L.A. times in particular has to really calm down. Speaking of tourist agencies, it makes me wonder if all this trash publicity is to precisely keep money in the States, since all that money would be going elsewhere if it were not for these greatly exaggerated assumptions...mmmm interesting.

[Gregg]

All I need to see is a picture of 4 heads with no bodies attached to make me realize the severity of this issue. I live in San Diego and have been surfing in Mexico for the past 20 years. I hate the fact that these drug cartels are keeping me from taking my family down there for nice weekends. You can't beat Northern Baja, but sorry to all those who are suffering due to the lack of tourism....I'm not taking my family down to Northern Baja. Living in SD provides many a story of those who travel frequently. Don't listen to the media....do your own research and you'll see for yourself if you want to make the trip...I say you probably wont. With all this being said, I would hop a plane to Cabo, with family, in split second....once again, do the research yourself.

[Frank]

The blog post referenced in the article, at The Truth About Mexico was originally written in response to some of the nonsense being spread by BeSafe, both on her website and apparently in the comments section of just about every article ever written about Mexico. Bad things can indeed happen here, but Mexico is hardly unique in having traffic accidents, which seem to make up the bulk of her horror stories. Even the fact she pushes in her comment here - that "32% of all non natural deaths of U.S. citizens outside this country occur in Mexico" - is a lot less scary when you know (as she does) that 1/3 of all foreign trips taken by Americans are to Mexico. In other words, Americans die in Mexico at the exact same rate, that they do everywhere in the world. If Mexico "is not safe, period!" then literally nowhere in the world is.

[Besafe]

Mexico is not safe period! 32% of all non natural deaths of U.S. citizens outside this country occur in Mexico. Read personal stories written by heartbroken family members go to: WWW.MEXICOVACATIONAWARENESS.COM

[carla]

I live and work in Ensenada. I drive back and forth by myself, across the border, at least once a week. I never feel safer than when I return to my home in Mexico. Perhaps this sense of safety comes from the fact that I don't drink myself into a stupor and then drive; don't hang-out in bars late at night and don't traffic drugs. Call me crazy, but when you travel to or live in a foreign country, you always play it safe (come to think of it, when I go to any major city in the US, I do the same). This past weekend, I went to an incredibly fun Blues Festival in San Felipe, Baja, California. I talked to so many Americans who said that they had almost not come to the event, because of the "wild-eyed" media in the US. "So where is all that stuff happening," they said. In the mind of the media, to a large extent. It sells papers, increases ratings, and keeps bloggsters working...

[Frank]

Christ...poor Josh Hartnett!

[Jon K.]

Ummm... didn't an American just end up dead on the beaches near Tijuana today?

Mexico's economy collapses without American tourism. They have too much self-interest in communicating the safety of travel there. You simply cannot trust their word when they tell you it's "safe" in a country where thousands of people are being executed and beheaded due to a national drug war. It's that simple.

[Bajajac]

We live in San Felipe, Baja, Mexico [on the gulf side] and have for the last 24 years. My home in the states has been burgled twice while we were in Baja while an attempt was made on the Baja house once. The local citzens aborted the attempt. Not a good analogy, but having the tourists stay out of Mexico for a while MAY put enough pressure on the Mexican Gov. to do someting to make life better for the Mexican citizens and tourists. I would not go to TJ if you gave me the whole damn town! Just like in the U.S.A. vote with your $$!

[FRANCIS]

AMERICANS ARE SO TYPICAL!!!
WHERE DOES THIS AURA OF INVINCIBILITY COME FROM???
OH SURE HONEY, YOU COULD GOTO MEXICO TO GET DRUNK/HIGH, TAKE OFF YOUR CLOTHES IN PUBLIC, CONTRACT SOME STD'S, AND POSSIBLY GET KIDNAPPED & MURDERED AT THE WRONG PLACE & TIME!!!
AMERICAN PARENTS ARE SO PATHETIC, SPOILING THEIR KIDS AND DISREGARDING COMMON SENSE!!!
GET A CLUE GRINGOS!!!
IF HOLLYWOOD ISN'T WELCOME IN MEXICO ANYMORE, NEITHER ARE SPOILED AMERICAN COLLEGE STUDENTS!!!
YOU DON'T BELIEVE ME!!!
JUST ASK JOSH HARTNETT & THAT HOLLYWOOD PRODUCTION TEAM THAT HAD TO RELOCATE TO SPAIN.
HE PAYED THE PRICE & I HOPE HE RECOVERS BECAUSE HE WAS IN THE WRONG PLACE & AT THE WRONG TIME!!!

[rjjrdq]

You're citing safety figures well before this drug war exploded out of control. I agree with one of other posters. It sounds like some travel agency put you up to this article.

[Raul]

Liam, you have been reading the newspaper too much. Cut throught the chase, the men in Mexico are a bunch of lazy, uneducated, drug addicted pedophiles who prowl the streets stealing ngetting the prepubescent little girls on drugs so that they can later abuse and bring them into their corrupted circles.

[Raul]

Not correct Pete. Mexico right now is a country that is full of crooks and croked cops. Everyone that lives there or visits frequently knows this, especially of Tijuana B.C. where criminals are willing to risk even going to jail, which rearely happens, to take something or everything from you. We hear about big crimes of drugs and kidnappings, but we do not hear about assualts and robberies which happen all too often. Nobody is safe walking the streets at any hour of the day. Believe me, I have been living in TJ for 3 months and I have been victimized majorly and I am sick and tired of listening to other peoples' stories of hoe they have been wronged too. I am ready to leave this stinking town.

[http://m3report.wordpress.com]

http://m3report.wordpress.com

[R Tray]

Hey Frank, which local drug dealer here in the states do you use?
You realize you're as much a part of this problem as anyone?

[Frank]

Hey Pete, which travle agency from Mexico is paying you to say this. Yes it may SEEM fun and safe until somthing happens. Everybody should promote not visiting Mexico so they could do more to legalize drugs and get rid of those cartels.

[Liam]

The military is patrolling Cancun, because the police force was let go, or temporarily so. Fragment grenades are tossed about in Zihuatanejo, and the entire police force walks off the job. Fragment grenades are tossed at tourists celebrating Independence Day in Morelia. Three people are shot, one a Danish tourist, at the site of Taxco's principal tourist attraction. A foreigner was murdered in Mexico City last week. Mexico City's Centro Historico district is patrolled by heavily-armed military. Gunfights break-out on the streets of Torreon and Lerdo. Heads roll on the floor of a disco in Uruapan, and on the beach in Acapulco. Etc., etc. And the border states . . . well, we know about those things.Other similar incidents take place, hit and miss around the country.

No, all is not well in Mexico right now. Should tourists stay away? For most, the answer is probably no. Is this something to be very concerned about and the information about which used to better plan a vacation? Yes.

There are more drug cartel deaths taking place in Mexico than in the USA, and the United States - substance abusers in the USA - is responsible for the terrible damage being done in Mexico.

[Greg]

Hey Pete - Good points. Went to La Paz recently and it was typically peaceful and safe. But I think it sums up my point of view to say Baja is a fly-in destination until the cartel issues are resolved. With regard to driving down, no matter how many fish I catch, or great camp sites I find, it's just not worth it adding a 1 percent increment of risk to the people I care about that would come with me. Are the odds 99 percent that it's safe? Sure. But just think how stupid you would feel if you were the one gringo to get in trouble one the road and watch something bad happen to your companion. That's a bad bet no matter how good the odds, especially when we have such bitchin spots right here at home.

[Liz]

Thanks for doing your part to counter the sensationalist media. It's amazing that people don't have a better grasp on geography. Mexico's a very big country. I visit Cabo every year and it blows my mind that people would somehow associate the border violence with Los Cabos.