By the numbers, Alissa Czisny's short program adds up to excellence

In the for-what-it's-worth department, a few points of reference about the personal-best score reigning U.S. champion Alissa Czisny racked up in today's short program at Skate Canada in Kitchener:

1. Skate Canada is the last of the six regular-season Grand Prix events, and Czisny's short-program total, 63.52, has been topped by just two other women on the circuit this season: Yuna Kim of South Korea (76.08 in Paris, 76.28 in Lake Placid) and Joannie Rochette of Canada (70.0 today to beat Czisny.)

2. It bettered Czisny's previous personal best, which came in 2005, by a whopping 5.98 points.

3. And although Czisny's artistry is considered her strength, her technical score, 36.60, has been topped this season by just Kim (43.80 and 44), Rochette (38.40) and Mirai Nagasu of the U.S. (37.40 in China).

What does that mean?

Despite the effort to create a system that seeks to standardize scores, each judging panel looks at things differently, so comparisons are tricky.

But the good thing is the Skate Canada judging did not appear overly generous (except for Rochette, the homie), so Czisny's scores seem a fair measure of her performance.

The bad thing is Czisny previously has been unable to do back-to-back strong performances (for evidence, check the 2009 U.S. Championships), so there will be a lot of breath held during Saturday's four-minute free skate -- especially because Czisny always seems to lose it at just about the point (2 3/4 minutes) a short program would have ended.

-- Philip Hersh

Photo: Alissa Czisny reacts to her high scores in the short program at Skate Canada. Credit: Paul Chiasson / Associated Press)

Belbin looks like an Olympic medalist. But we say the winner is . . .

(Judge for yourself whether ice dancer Tanith Belbin gets style points for this.  Photo courtesy Men's Health magazine.)

A few figure skating observations as the Grand Prix series heads into its last event before the Dec. 4-5 final in Tokyo:

*Over dinner Sunday night in Lake Placid, five reporters who will be covering figure skating at the 2010 Olympics agreed to hazard predictions on the Winter Games medals.

I decided to come up with an aggregate of our picks by assigning five points for a prediction of gold, three for silver, one for bronze.

I know the whole thing is very unscientific, but the point here is simply to have some fun.

The results showed: no man getting votes from all five of us; Yuna Kim of South Korea being unanimous for gold; wide difference of opinion on the other women's medals; and compelling unpredictability in three of the four disciplines.

In ice dance, we liked reigning world champions Oksana Domnina and Maxim Shabalin of Russia even though they have not competed this season because of his knee injury, and a couple of us thought Isabelle Delobel would come back so strong from giving birth to a son Oct. 2, and that she and Olivier Schoenfelder, the 2008 world champions from France, could make the Olympic podium.

(Our panel was Juliet Macur and Jere Longman of the New York Times; Christine Brennan and Kelly Whiteside of USA Today; and me.  FYI: Groups of us have done this in the past, and although the predictions have been lost to the mists of history, it should be noted Longman was the only one among a previous panel to pick Tara Lipinski as 1998 Olympic champion.)

In listing the 2010 predictions, I will give total points and votes by place.  So, for example, in ice dance, Tanith Belbin and Ben Agosto of the United States had 17 (2-2-1), which means 17 points on 2 firsts, 2 seconds and a third.

Without further ado, the envelope, please:

WOMEN:  Yuna Kim, South Korea, 25 (5-0-0); Rachael Flatt, U.S., 6: (0-2-0); Joannie Rochette, Canada, 4 (0-1-1); Mao Asada, Japan, 3 (0-0-3); Miki Ando, Japan, 3 (0-1-0); Akiko Suzuki, Japan, 3 (0-1-0); Julia Sebestyen, Hungary, 1 (0-0-1).

MEN: Evgeny Plushenko, Russia, 16 (2-2-0); Evan Lysacek, U.S., 12 (1-2-1); Patrick Chan, Canada, 7 (1-0-2); Nobunari Oda, Japan, 6 (1-0-1); Brian Joubert, France, 4 (0-1-1).

PAIRS: Savchenko-Szolkowy, Germany, 21 (3-2-0); Shen-Zhao, China, 16 (2-2-0); Pang-Tong, China, 5 (0-1-2); Zhangs, China, 2 (0-0-2); Mukhortova-Trankov, Russia, 1 (0-0-1).

DANCE: Domnina-Shabalin, Russia, 19 (3-1-1); Belbin-Agosto, U.S., 17 (2-2-1); Davis-White, U.S., 7 (0-2-1); Delobel and Schoenfelder, France, 2 (0-0-2)

*Surest sign the Olympics are approaching:  an attractive U.S. female athlete pictured in a state of undress for a magazine.

This time, it's ice dancer Tanith Belbin on the cover of Men's Health, where she is called, ``America's hottest Olympic athlete.''

The hottest stuff is nothing new for Belbin, 25 a naturalized U.S. citizen from Canada (and ex-girlfriend of reigning world champion Evan Lysacek).  Voters on ESPN.com had called Belbin ``the hottest female athlete,'' period, in 2006, when she won the Olympic silver medal with partner Benjamin Agosto, who grew up in the Chicago suburbs.

The Men's Health photo spread, titled "How to Woo a Tech Girl,'' said Belbin, "loves SIM cards more than the average 25-year-old woman does.''

Belbin's relatively modest poses, by comparison with those of Olympic swimmer Amanda Beard and high jumper Amy Acuff, who posed nude for Playboy, follow in a tradition of self-revelation that includes, among others, swimmer Jenny Thompson, volleyball player Logan Tom, soccer player Brandi Chastain and water polo player Amber Stachowski.

Maybe Belbin is hoping the judges will find her love for everything hi-tech so convincing they give her higher technical scores in a scoring system that relies on all manner of gadgetry.

If it is an all-male panel, she's as good as gold.

*Rachael Flatt's performance at Skate America had big mistakes [fall on the jump combination in the short program, botched combination spin in the free skate] but it still clearly established her as the favorite in January's U.S. Championships -- unless, of course, Alissa Czisny or Caroline Zhang or Mirai Nagasu blows the doors off in this weekend's Skate Canada.

Flatt, known for her consistency, had been consistently lackluster in her earlier Grand Prix event, Cup of China, finishing 5th in the short program and free skate.  Slow and steady can only take you so far. 

"This certainly gives me a lot of confidence heading into nationals,'' Flatt said after Skate America, when she hit seven triple jumps.  "I have been doing clean programs or close-to-clean programs in practice, so I'm glad to finally compete the way I've been practicing.''

Should Flatt win nationals, she would be the fifth different women's champion in the past five years.  That never has happened before under normal circumstances.

The only similar streaks occurred in the seven years from 1990 through 1996 and the five years from 1960 through 1964.

There were six different champions from 90-96 but the 1994 title, won by Tonya Harding, was vacated because of Harding's involvement in the attack on rival Nancy Kerrigan.  Harding also won in 1991.

There were five different champions from 1960 through 1964, but the elite of U.S. skating was wiped out in a 1961 crash of the plane taking the team to the world championships.

Flatt, 17, has been the runner-up at nationals the past two years.

*In the ships-passing-in-the-night dept., we have U.S. men Brandon Mroz and Ryan Bradley, who are both coached by Tom Zakrajsek in Colorado Springs.

Mroz had plenty of bravado after the short program at Skate America, telling reporters he had the same technical ammunition as Russia's Evgeny Plushenko, the 2006 Olympic champion, who has made an impressive return to competition after a three-season absence.

Then Mroz, 18, shot himself in the foot (feet?) over and over again at Skate America, in one of the worst performances I ever have seen an accomplished skater give.  It compared (unfavorably) with Carolina Kostner's mess at the 2009 worlds.

Against the weakest men's field in any of the first five Grand Prix events this season, Mroz finished 11th of 12 in the free skate.  His scorecard: one fall, only one decently executed triple jump, other triples repeatedly turned into doubles.

Bradley had several performances similar to Mroz's disaster since finishing second at the 2007 U.S. Championships.  One was at the Paris Grand Prix this season, where he finished 10th of 12 in a free skate he amazingly opened with a successful quad jump.  Bradley was 8th overall there.

Bradley, who turned 26 Tuesday, was headed for the abyss again at Skate America after botching his first two jumps and finishing eighth in the short program.  Then he rallied to finish second in the long program -- and overall -- with solid skating in a delightfully whimsical interpretation of a program called ``Chamber Music,'' which includes snippets of Albinoni, Mozart and others.

Bradley's scores were a long way from those of winner Lysacek -- but also a long way from where he had been.

``I didn't put myself on the Olympic team today, but I didn't take myself out of the running, either,'' Bradley said.  ``There is a light at the end of the tunnel.  It was looking a little dark for a while.''

*Frank Carroll, paraphrasing a quip he had heard another coach say, delivered the best line ever about most skaters' lack of relationship to the sounds they are skating to.  Said the coach of a skater after a particularly tone-deaf effort:  ``The music never bothered her.''

-- Philip Hersh

Sasha Cohen out of Skate America; Emily Hughes in [Updated]

Sasha Cohen is out of this week's Skate America with tendinitis.

It is the second Grand Prix event this fall from which the 2006 Olympic silver medalist has withdrawn because of the problem in her right calf.

This time, the withdrawal casts significant doubt on whether she can make a successful comeback after three seasons away from Olympic-style skating.

She will replaced at Skate America in Lake Placid, N.Y., by Emily Hughes, who finished seventh at the 2006 Olympics as an eleventh-hour replacement for an injured Michelle Kwan.

[Updated at 10:17a.m. Hughes, 20, who is taking a year off from Harvard University to train full time, missed the last two U.S. Championships with injuries. She has finished two years at Harvard.

By virtue of her 2006 Olympic medal, Cohen is an automatic qualifier for January's U.S. Championships, at which U.S. Figure Skating will pick its two women's singles entrants for the 2010 Winter Olympics.

Hughes now will also receive a bye to nationals because the final qualifying event, Eastern Sectionals, begins just three days after Skate America.  She finished second in last month's North Atlantic Regionals, her first competition in a year.]

-- Philip Hersh

A hundred days until the Vancouver Games is just another day to Evan Lysacek

While Olympic organizers marked the 100-days-out point before the Vancouver Games, world figure skating champion Evan Lysacek on Wednesday did what he’ll do with 99 days left, 98 days, and just about every other day before the Olympics.

He trained long and hard, skating powerfully through a morning practice session at the Toyota Sports Center.

Although a surprise blizzard delayed his return from last week’s Cup of China competition in Beijing, he was on the ice Wednesday as usual, sharing the surface with Italy’s Carolina Kostner, 2008 U.S. champion Mirai Nagasu, Bebe Liang and others. Afterward, he pondered whether 100 days is a long time or a short time to wait for what looms as the biggest moment of his career.

“Both. I have mixed feelings,” said Lysacek, who pulled up from third after the short program to finish second at the Cup of China behind Japan’s Nobunari Oda.

“I feel like I’m really in a good place physically and mentally for this season, but at the same time, 100 days is a long time to stay calm. As it gets closer, anxiety will start to kick in a little more than it already has, but I feel like the last several years for me have been so rewarding.

"I’m really satisfied with the way things are going. I don’t feel the constant need to be proving myself, and proving myself and proving myself, and I think with that, I’ve found an inner peace where I truly love skating every single day and being with my friends and traveling.”

That, he said, has helped him rediscover the essential joy of skating.

“I’ve sort of come full circle. I feel like I’m right back where I started where I’m just doing it because I love it,” he said. “And I really hope I can keep that, because I want to have that feeling at the Olympics and be able to enjoy the experience and not be so hung up on how every tiny little detail is going in my skating.

"I know it’s about the sport as a whole, but like any athlete will tell you, we’re ambassadors for our sport, our country, each of our families and cities and clubs and coaches.”

That sounds like a lot of responsibility, but not to him.

“No. It’s an honor,” he said.

Lysacek also said he was happy with his performance at the Cup of China.

“I just had a couple of questionable calls on edges,” he said. “I sort of had my list of what I wanted to work on, but reviewing them, I don’t so much. It seemed like just calls. I’ll just try to make it more obvious, I guess. What they say with this system is, ‘Don’t leave any gray area.’ Even though I think it was correct, what I did, I did leave a gray area so that’s what I have to correct.

“I’ve seen great skating so far this season. It’s going to be a really exciting season leading up to the Games.”

And, as of Wednesday, there were only 100 days left until the Feb. 12 Opening Ceremony.

-- Helene Elliott

San Jose to host 2012 U.S. Figure Skating Championships

The 2012 U.S. Figure Skating Championships will take place in San Jose, the U.S. Figure Skating Assn. announced today. The nationals will be held at the HP Pavilion on Jan. 22-29, 2012.

San Jose also hosted the nationals in 1996 when Michelle Kwan won the first of her nine championships.

The 2010 nationals and Olympic trials will be held in Spokane, Wash., in January.

-- Austin Knoblauch

Jennifer Kirk blog: U.S. women must hope a weak beginning turns into a strong ending

Jennifer Kirk, who won the 2000 world junior figure skating championship, finished third at the U.S. championships in 2004 and fourth in 2005, will write a weekly blog for The Times providing insights into the skating world during the months leading into the Vancouver Winter Olympics. Since retiring from figure skating in 2005, Kirk, 25, has been working on obtaining a college degree in broadcast journalism and has spent the last few months blogging about skating at Trueslant.com/jenniferkirk.

Americans Rachael Flatt and Mirai Nagasu came to the weekend’s Cup of China event with high hopes. Facing a relatively weak field, both had a reasonable shot at medaling. 

It was shocking, then, when the ladies’ podium was void of an American flag. After dealing with their respective struggles in Beijing, Flatt and Nagasu were left with disappointment and empty hands heading home from their first Grand Prix event of this Olympic season.

What’s most significant about the weekend’s event isn’t that Flatt and Nagasu left a relatively mid-level Grand Prix event without a medal, but rather what it means for the larger hopes for American ladies’ figure skating.

Without a clear standout star among the American women, to some degree, the hopes of an Olympic medal rests in the hands of a relatively unpredictable group of young women who have yet to establish themselves as consistent threats for international medals. 

This week’s Cup of China served as a microcosm of this predicament. That said, it’s important to note that although the Cup of China was a disappointment, Flatt and Nagasu have the ability to rebound from the weekend’s setbacks and revive American ladies’ skating. But it will take some work.

Figure skater Kim Yu-Na is so good she can gild her lily

Five random thoughts on another unseasonably cold mid-October day here in Chicago:

1. It took me less than three minutes to realize that Kim Yu-Na of South Korea should simply be presented the 2010 Olympic women's figure skating gold medal right now.

Kim's short program in today's Grand Prix series opener -- the Trophy Bompard in Paris -- was nothing less than brilliant. Skating to a musical medley from James Bond films -- including, appropriately, "Goldfinger," in which the villain loves only gold -- the reigning world champion was sassy, speedy and just plain scintillating.

Kim was utterly in another league from a field that included 2008 world champion Mao Asada of Japan; Caroline Zhang of the United States; Yukari Nakano of Japan (who three times has been in the top five at worlds); and two-time European champion Carolina Kostner of Italy, who sadly reprised her stumblebum free skate performance from the 2009 worlds.

The judges were as dazzled by Kim, 19, as I was, giving her a score of 76.08, second only to the record short program total of 76.12 she rolled up at the 2009 worlds. Were it not for a wobbly leg on one of her spiral positions, Kim would have been virtually perfect . As it is, she has a lead of more than 16 points over runner-up Nakano. She opened with a huge triple-triple combination. And her score would have been worth third in the men's event.

One short program does not a season make. But this one made it clear that Kim at her best will be impossible to beat, and Kim at 80% of her best still is better than anyone else. Athlete, artist -- this young woman is breathtaking on the ice. Barring injury or early retirement, she can be the greatest women's skater in history.

2. Good for NBC and its subsidiary, Universal Sports, in deciding to televise (even on a delayed basis) the Grand Prix series events outside the United States. (NBC already had a contract for live broadcasts of Skate America.) Broadcasts begin Friday night on Universal. Click this link for the complete story and schedule.  

3. Only three cities met Friday's applicant deadline for the 2018 Winter Olympics. One of the three, Annecy, France, is wasting its time, which leaves Munich, Germany, and Pyeongchang, South Korea, in the race. After close defeats in the 2010 and 2014 bidding, Pyeongchang looks like the early favorite, but Munich gained hope when Madrid lost to Rio in the final round of the 2016 Summer Games bidding, because there won't be three straight Olympics in Europe. The International Olympic Committee will choose the 2018 host in July 2011.

4. Guy Drut of France was one of the whiny IOC members who complained about inconvenience (waiting on buses, early wake-up call) caused by security around President Obama's visit to Copenhagen. "It dampened the enthusiasm of a good number of us,'' Drut told the French sports newspaper L'Equipe.

I can't let Drut's petulance pass without pointing out a bit of his personal history. It is apropos of nothing how entitled some IOC members feel -- even those who aren't even entitled to call themselves honest.

Drut received a 15-month suspended sentence in 2005 after being found guilty of benefiting from a fictitious job at a construction company. Then-French President Jacques Chirac gave Drut a presidential pardon three years ago so he could keep his place on the IOC, from which Drut had been provisionally suspended.

Drut, the 1976 Olympic high hurdles champion, was a member of the IOC commission that evaluated the 2016 bids -- proof that the IOC lets no bad deed go unrewarded.  

5. While my Olympic attention necessarily was focused on the ill-fated Chicago bid, one of the country's most successful recent Olympians, fencer Mariel Zagunis, added another title to her resume: world champion in saber. The ex-Notre Damer won sabre gold medals in the 2004 and 2008 Olympics.   

-- Philip Hersh

Above photo: Kim Yu-Na wins the short program in Paris. Credit: Francois Mori / Associated Press.

Below: Mariel Zagunis after winning the 2009 world fencing title in individual saber two weeks ago. Credit:  Kaan Soyturk / Associated Press.

Sasha Cohen answers critics of her Grand Prix meet pullout

 

I took 2006 Olympic silver medalist Sasha Cohen at her word when Cohen announced last Friday she was withdrawing from this week's Grand Prix competition in Paris because of tendinitis in her leg.

I posted that news here and in the Los Angeles Times' Olympic Blog, "Ticket to Vancouver,'' with her statement. I made no comment other than putting a question mark -- in the Globetrotting version of the Blog -- over a picture of Cohen. The punctuation referred to the status of her comeback.

Some comments on this Blog took me to task for not having questioned why Cohen was pulling out of an upcoming competition only three days after she had done a show in Anaheim, Calif., for which she was paid.

Some who commented also noted correctly that I had been hard on Johnny Weir for complaining about illness at last year's U.S. Championships after he had flown to South Korea for a show. At least one comment suggested that Cohen's comeback after three years away from competition was nothing more than a publicity grab on her part.

Sasha Cohen, Kimmie Meissner lose footing in skate comebacks

It has been a tough couple days for twentysomethings trying to make figure skating comebacks.

Thursday, former world and U.S. champion Kimmie Meissner, 20, announced her season -- and, likely, her competitive career -- were over because of a severe knee injury. She had ended her 2008-09 season with a withdrawal from the U.S. Championships because of a hip injury.

Friday, 2006 Olympic silver medalist Sasha Cohen, who turns 25 on Oct. 26, announced she was pulling out of next week's Grand Prix event in Paris -- which would have been her first competition in 3 1/2 years -- because of tendinitis in her right calf.

Cohen said she expects to be able to compete at Skate America on Nov. 12-15 in Lake Placid, N.Y.

"I have been advised to limit my training for the next few weeks,'' Cohen said in a statement.  "My pain is subsiding, but I have not been fully able to train for (the Bompard Trophy.)''

-- Philip Hersh

Evan Lysacek: Change of seasons signals last lap toward Vancouver Olympics

Evan Lysacek, a native of the Chicago area, has called Los Angeles home since he moved here in 2003 to train in El Segundo with renowned coach Frank Carroll. With Carroll standing at the boards to support him, he won the world championship in March at Staples Center. When he's not practicing, competing, skating in shows or getting his costumes designed by Vera Wang, he's an occasional contributor to The Times' Olympics blog.

He took time from preparing for "Improv on Ice," a show in which he'll share the spotlight Tuesday at the Honda Center with Turin Olympic silver medalist Sasha Cohen and the Goo Goo Dolls, to compose another post.

As I walked out of a Coca-Cola Olympic celebration reception on Friday night at Millennium Park in Chicago, and had trouble distinguishing the precipitation, it was clear that fall has arrived.

With fall comes the start of the figure skating season, but this season will be unlike any other for me.

The first major difference is that each event this year is a step closer to the 2010 Olympic Games in February.

The second difference is that I come in as the reigning world champion, a title that I earned in March at Staples Center in my hometown of Los Angeles.

With that title has come a considerable amount of opportunity. I've spent the "off-season" traveling the world skating in shows and TV specials, shooting commercials and photos for sponsors, working with NBC on its Olympic promotions, making appearances trying to spread Olympic spirit and excitement, working in Toronto and New York on new programs and costumes for the competitive season, and of course I've been training
for the big event.