Grammy experts bet on a big night for Taylor Swift

Pop & Hiss will live-blog the Grammys on Sunday, beginning with the pre-show telecast at 1 p.m. Pacific.

There's more familiarity than surprises in the main categories at this year's Grammy Awards. The 15 nominees for the top three categories -- album, record and song -- are spread among just seven artists.

Though the Grammy Awards were never exactly left-of-center in its top fields, this year has a decidedly pop bent. Young country-crossover superstar Taylor Swift, veteran R&B diva Beyonce and the dance-friendly art project that is Lady Gaga combined for a total of 23 nominations, and all three showed up in the Grammys' top three categories. 

The Envelope polled a panel of experts, including Times pop critic Ann Powers, Entertainment Weekly's senior writer Whitney Pastorek, Spin's associate editor David Marchese, The Envelope's awards guru Tom O'Neil and music writer/former Idolator.com editor Maura Johnston, among others, to get a gauge how and why Grammy voters will make their picks.

The full grid is here, and below are some of the findings.

ALBUM OF THE YEAR

Contenders: Taylor Swift's "Fearless," Beyonce's "I Am ... Sasha Fierce," Lady Gaga's "The Fame," Dave Matthews Band's "Big Whiskey and the GrooGrux King" and Black Eyed Peas' "The E.N.D."

Swift has won seemingly every major award in 2009, and The Envelope's pundits are predicting her "Fearless" to take the top prize. It's rare to see the Grammys give the top honor to such a young artist (who's only on her second album), but few artists have had the kind of breakout, crossover success as Swift.

As The Times' Powers wrote, "Taylor Swift 'saved' the music industry this year. Beyonce will get the middle-ground vote; Gaga's rocket-rise happened too late to push her ahead of her rivals here. Nobody thinks of the Peas as album artists, and who put that Dave Matthews Band album in here, anyway? It's fine, but no ground-breaker."

Johnston included an equation as to why Swift would win, noting that without an industry stalwart, a la Herbie Hancocok or Ray Charlies, in the running, the country darling should coast. "Artistry + monster sales - plausible threat from low-selling record by member of music's old guard = Taylor's biggest win of the night."

The Times' August Brown isn't counting out Dave Matthews. He writes, "Dave Matthews is the dark horse here for his joyful yet elegiac career-redefiner 'Big Whiskey & the GrooGrux King,' but this night is likely to be all about cementing Swift as the next superstar-for-life."

Ultimately, five voters chose Swift, one went with Beyonce and Spin's Marchese placed his bet on Lady Gaga, reasoning that "Gaga defined the year."

See the full chart here. Read more about album of the year contenders here. 

RECORD OF THE YEAR

Contenders: Swift's "You Belong With Me," Lady Gaga's "Poker Face," Kings of Leon's "Use Somebody," the Black Eyed Peas' "I Gotta Feeling" and Beyonce's "Halo." 

Can Swift sweep the big three categories? Envelope pundits liked her diary anthem "You Belong With Me" here, with Kings of Leon's "Use Somebody" as the runner-up. Receiving little love, however, was Beyonce's "Halo."

In the Swift camp is EW's Pastorek. She reasons, "Between her sales numbers and her colossal popularity among exactly the segment of the population the Grammys need so desperately to reach -- i.e. music-buying consumers under the age of 30 -- Taylor Swift will be irresistible to savvy and lazy voters alike. Whether or not she'll cap off her extraordinary year by sweeping this awards show is not the interesting question -- it's how on earth she'll follow this up."

Powers agreed. "Though the calendar has turned, it's still Taylor's year. Commercial might plus ingenue charm will push her ahead of the equally unavoidable Peas in this category. Rock fans will prop up the Kings above Lady Gaga, whose song in this category is too old, and Beyonce, entered here with a ballad that's the blandest hit from her nominated album."

Brown got more to the point. "If there’s anything the mercurial Grammy voters can agree upon, it’s a country-tilting, mega-selling, effortlessly charming singer who already ran the table on every other major awards gauntlet last year."

See the full chart here. Read more about the record of the year contenders here. 

BEST NEW ARTIST

The contenders: MGMT, the Zac Brown Band, Keri Hilson, the Silversun Pickups, the Ting Tings.

There was little agreement on best new artist. The only consensus was on British dance-pop duo the Ting Tings, who received zero first-place votes and ranked fifth on The Envelope's chart. Synthy duo MGMT finished in the front, receiving three first-place votes, but country's Zac Brown Band earned two, and R&B singer and local rockers the Silversun Pickups earned one apiece.

Pastorek was the sole voter for Silver Lake's the Silversun Pickups. She argued, "The Silversun Pickups sound like a band that have been around forever. Because they have. Expect their warm, familiar sound to edge out the edginess of MGMT (a band that has also been around basically forever)."

But Powers disagreed, opting for MGMT. She wrote, "Keri Hilson might surprise in this category, but despite her breakthroughs and big collaborations with the likes of P. Diddy, Plies and Trey Songz, her profile remains strangely low. MGMT seems to generate a lot of goodwill among music industry folk. Silversuns might get the local vote. Zac Brown Band has been robbed at plenty of other awards ceremonies this year, and the Ting Tings seem simultaneously too old and too new -- if that's possible."

The last country artist to win this award was "American Idol's" Carrie Underwood. Johnston is betting on the Zac Brown Band to return the prize to Nashville. She contends, "The Zac Brown Band's been kicking around the business for years, and they certainly had a breakout year in 2009, with success on the country charts and a Bonnaroo slot. Plus, something tells me that MGMT, Silversun Pickups, and the Ting Tings all going up against each other will result in the alt-rock bloc being split into three."

Brown thinks it's a toss-up. He writes, "While we ride hard for Silver Lake and its favorite sons and daughters in Silversun Pickups on these pages, Grammy rarely rewards the fringes in this category, so it feels like a tossup between Zac and Keri. The latter had more than one impactful single, so we’ll take Ms. Hilson over Mr. Chicken Fried."

See the full chart here.Read more about best new artist contenders here.

SONG OF THE YEAR

The contenders: Taylor Swift's "You Belong With Me," Kings of Leon's "Use Somebody," Beyonce's "Single Ladies (Put a Ring On It)", Lady Gaga's "Poker Face" and Maxwell's "Pretty Wings."

A songwriter's award, Swift is still a favorite here, but the competition is closer. Oddly, Swift ranked No. 1, but had only one first-place vote. How did that happen? The Envelope's grid is based on a point system, with first place votes worth 5 points, second place votes worth 4 points and so on and so forth. First place votes in this category were scattered, with most voters placing Swift second, which added up to give her the edge.

The lack of a clear winner was likely due to the fact that Beyonce's "Single Ladies (Put a Ring On It)" was in the running here. Thought a massive hit, some argue its success is based more on its production than its songwriting. Beyonce and Kings of Leon each received three first-place votes.

Here's what Powers had to say: "Admit it. You are doing the 'Single Ladies' dance right now, as you read this."

Brown also go to the point: "Undisputed. America liked it, Grammy will put a ring on it."

Yet Johnston is confident this prize is going to the Kings of Leon. She writes, "'Use Somebody' is a rare animal in 2009 -- an old-fashioned rock song from a band that's been on the verge of making it since they were first birthed as the Southern Strokes. Though I can see Taylor Swift getting a lot of 'good on ya!' votes from people happy that singer-songwriters can sell well."

See the full chart here.Read more about song of the year contenders here.

--Todd Martens

Photo, top left: Beyonce (Barbara Davidson / Los Angeles Times), Lady Gaga (Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times) and Taylor Swift (Barbara Davidson / Los Angeles Times)

Comments

[Greg]

these "experts" seem to have forgotten the MASSIVE sweep of poker face... Gaga has had hits all year, she blew beyonce out of the water this year.

[RBBrittain]

Ironically, thanks to Mathew Knowles' great submission boo-boo in ROTY (if he'd only submitted "Single Ladies" there we'd be talking a Beyoncé sweep of the top three), the SOTY race is now the exact opposite of the VMA category that led to Kanye's infamous outburst: Taylor actually has the best song, but IMO vote-splitting will tilt the award in Beyoncé's favor. It would be poetic justice here for Beyoncé's acceptance speech to be interrupted by Kanye saying Taylor had the best song of all time.

My other predictions: DMB for AOTY, because they're in the Herbie/Ray slot this year. (Unlike the articles, I won't slaughter Herbie's & Ray's last names--especially since the Gold Derby forums consider Herbie's last name obscene due to its last four letters.) Taylor for ROTY, for obvious reasons. And if anyone still cares for BNA (I haven't since it was confirmed Gaga was ineligible), Zac Brown Band strictly because they're the only ones with their voting bloc together; Keri was once the front-runner but her bloc is lukewarm.

[Orionsaint]

Taylor Swift is so boring! Why does she keep winning? She's generic garbage!

[Cisco]

It's funny how everyone is sooo ga-ga over the Lady GaGa. When I first saw her perform on the Miss America or was it Miss Universe? pageant, performing actually lip-synching really, "Just Dance", she came across as just another dance-oriented pop-droid a la Britney. After watching her performance at the AMAs, she came across more like Christina Aguilera going postal on the piano (breaking bottles--how shocking!NOT!). She's pretty much aiming for the mother of reinvention, since Madonna will be retiring that crown soon and it was reinvention that was the key to Madonna's long, successful run in the Pop world...oh and her music was okay too....how could you not wanna dance girl! The Lady GaGa will eventually go the Madonna route because their music is really similar Pop candy confections and they're die-hard fashionistas...people are more interested in their wardrobe than their music...Who knows maybe the next Lady GaGa CD will be a country album (har, har)...I doubt it though...

[Billy]

Taylor Swift cant sing --terrible and she is ruining country music with that kids bop lolly pop music

[Vicky]

Honestly I don't get it... why does Taylor Swift keep winning??? I'm starting to think the whole thing is rigged. Because she's “NOT” as talented as some of the known artists that are out there, and in my opinion they’re the ones that deserve to win. I will be shocked if Boyance, lady Gaga or Blacked Eyed pea do not win. I have nothing against Miss Taylor Swift I just think she is way too overrated.

[Haider]

Taylor Swift WILL probably win lots of these but that's because of Kanye. She should thank Kanye in her acceptance speech. Ever since that incident, she's gotten 100 times more popular and she does NOT deserve it. Her songs are bland, boring, and are all about the same thing: boys. And, I swear, if she says "I can't believe a country artist is able to do this!" again, I'll hurt someone. She's NOT country. She's pop. Pop-country if anything. Lady Gaga and Beyonce deserve those awards, Gaga more. Her music videos, songs, and performances are all symbolic and she is the only current pop artist right now (besides Madonna) who is a true pop artist. Beyonce has also worked hard and should get any award Gaga doesn't.

[BLIND?]

I saw that performence of Lady Gaga, she wasn't lipsynching. It's no wonder the wrong people are winning. Stupid people like you can't tell live singing from not...

[Sam]

Lady Gaga a singer? What she lacks in talent, she tries to make up with strange costumes. She doesn't have the look, the talent, but she is a dance performer. She should win auto-tuned song of the year. What's with today's songs being all auto-tuned? Anyone can talk and make the electronics make your voice in tune for any song. Taylor can't sing either, but at least she writes her own songs and doesn't auto-tune her vocals. Today's singers make me want to listen to old music of the 80's and 90's when people actually sang.

Christina is probably the best female singer right now.

[amused65]

Everything Taylor Swift does sounds the same. Her work has no recognizable melody or engaging lyrics, and her weak childlike voice has no range. Take away her youthful beauty, charm, and her stage presence and what's left?

It's not her singing!

[kia]

Here my order.

Taylor #1 (Like she should be)

Lady Gaga #2 (Like she should be)

(Then the not so gd) beyonce #3

[DONALD McCREA]

you are mistaken.....Taylor Swift did not "save the music industry"......it died a few years ago and good riddance.....there is still alot of great music being made....but, as usual, you will see very little of it on the Grammys.....

[James]

The Grammys are a joke.

[Douglas]

I must say, I miss bands like the Beatles, The Who, The Faces, Stones or the mighty ZEP!!! Yea baby!!!

[Cal Bear]

I am getting really pissed off this award season. Taylor Swift wins every awards. Really she had a big selling album but c'mon she's really only popular with pre-teens who don't even know what good music is. Song of the year should NOT go to her. The lyrics of that song are terrible.

Beyonce and Lady Gaga on the other hand deserve all these nominations. Beyonce should win Album of the Year and Lady Gaga should win Record of the Year, Poker Face was a killer record and even after its been out for more then a year, its still great. Song of the Year should go to Kings of Leon.

[mark]

I like Taylor Swift's music along with many other comparable artists. What I don't understand is the scope of her success over over artists. Her writing is good but her stage presence and live performance is C- she can't dance, no rythem, doesn't know what to do on the stage, her singing C+, sex appeal, C+, personality C+. Don't get it.

[Timber]

My prediction is that Taylor Swift will be remembered more as the head of a major label than as a performer. Give it a few years to pan out, but she's here to save the Academy, not to burn it down.

But it seems like the ladies' year.

[godsucks]

Grammy's are rigged, KOL and Dave Matthews are the only "non pop" bands in the top categories, yet KOL is way overplayed like pop, making it pop rock. No real talent is listed in these categories other than Dave Matthews and Maxwell. Rock is dead??

[CR]

If previous Grammy awards are any indication, I'll be shocked if Taylor Swift wins Album of the Year. The Grammys have always gone for artistry over sales. Will they really give it to a girl that people universally acknowledge can't sing or stay on key to save her life? My money is on Gaga. She started out as an image, but has evolved into a serious artist.

If both acts perform live tonight and Swift wins, there will be some embarrassed voters in the audience.