Grammy countdown: The ways in which we were wrong

With the CMAs and the AMAs out of the way, Pop & Hiss now officially begins its countdown to the 2009 Grammy Awards. Starting this week and leading up to the Grammy nomination announcement on Dec. 3, Pop & Hiss will be running down major categories. First up, and going live later today, will be a look at the best rock album field.

But first, a look back at our predictions from last year.

In the best rock album category, Pop & Hiss (then known as Extended Play), had picked the following as the favorites:

Daughtry's "Daughtry"
Fall Out Boy's "Infinity on High"
White Stripes' "Icky Thump"
Bruce Springsteen's "Magic"
Linkin Park's "Minutes to Midnight"

So how many of those did we have right?

Just two out of five -- Daughtry and Bruce Springsteen. Nominated albums ultimately included John Fogerty's "Revival, Wilco's "Sky Blue Sky" and the Foo Fighters' "Echoes, Silence, Patience & Grace," which wound up winning.

We didn't fare much better in the album of the year field, either. Our picks:

Bruce Springsteen's "Magic"
Linkin Park's "Minutes to Midnight"
Paul McCartney's "Memory Almost Full"
Kanye West's "Graduation"
Amy Winehouse's "Back to Black

The prize went to Herbie Hancock, pictured above, for his "River: The Joni Letters." Don't try to pretend you saw that coming. While we were right that Kanye and Winehouse would get nominated, our other picks included Springsteen, Linkin Park and Paul McCartney.

So why continue? Why, that's the best aspect of the Grammy Awards, promoting discussion and debate about the past year-ish (eligibility period runs from Oct. 1, 2007, to Sept. 30, 2008) in music. And with more than 100 categories and multiple genres, handicapping the Grammys is not as easy as foretelling the Academy Awards, in which "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" and "Slumdog Millionaire" are likely to be nominated for best picture (see that, Tom O'Neil? Just did your gig).

And hey, go easy on us. After all, not one ESPN analyst had Philadelphia besting Tampa Bay in the World Series. In fact, multiple writers had the Cubs winning it all. Silly, everyone knew that the 2009 Cubs would be the team to beat. 

--Todd Martens

Photo: Bryan Chan / Los Angeles Times

Comments

[angry hippie]

Now this is the kind of in depth arts and entertainment news the Times
has been sorely lacking. More on Times writers writing about themselves!
I'm riveted.

[AC]

Maybe your lame predictions wouldn't be so wrong if you actually went out and talked to Grammy voters and got the pulse on what they're voting for, the way your colleague Tom O'Neil does with the Oscars. And consider what is the make up of the voting body: age, gender, profession, what genre they work in. (In other words, do some actual reporting.) THAT'S why his predictions are more accurate, not because there's a larger number of Grammy categories. With both award shows, everyone focuses on just the top categories anyway.

[Todd Martens]

Hey AC,

Thanks for the support. All the predictions are indeed based upon countless hours of discussions with Grammy voters, and a year's worth of "actual reporting."