Oscars Liveblog: Predictions ... and surprises to watch for

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As we set up back stage at the Oscars -- where we’re among perhaps the only group of journalists on God’s green earth who do their work in tuxedos and formal wear -- a few surprises are on our minds. It’s been a strange year for the Oscars -- lot of drama for best picture but not so much suspense on other categories (an inversion, in some ways, of past Oscars). Still if you dig hard enough, or at least blog hard enough, you’ll find the strange and the unexpected.

Below, our guesses on where those surprises will lie, as well as our overall predictions for who will win in the major categories, ranked by most likely and second-most-likely (i.e, our real choice and an insurance policy). Feel free to use for your Oscar pool -- just don’t forget to share the winnings with us if we’re right (and forget about them if we’re wrong).

Five surprises:

-- Best editing and best picture tend to go together like ketchup and fries; winners in the two categories have aligned in five of the past seven years. But this year could see a split -- with “Avatar” taking one prize and “The Hurt Locker” the other. Since we’re predicting “Avatar” to win best picture, we’ll say, according to this theory, that “Hurt Locker” wins best editing.

-- Most pundits have all but given the best animated prize to “Up.” But with votes getting spread this year around five contenders -- and some voters no doubt feeling like “Up” has already been feted with a best picture nomination -- don’t be entirely shocked if another film comes up and sneaks away with the prize. Our guess for the film carrying out this surprise attack: “Coraline.” It’s not likely, but larger balloons have burst.

-- It’s been a long time since best cinematography went to a truly obscure film -- you have to go all the way back to the British drama “The Mission” in 1986. But with Michael Haneke’s German-language “The White Ribbon” easily one of the most beautifully photographed films of the year, the movie could earn enough votes to edge out “Avatar,” especially since the hard-core cinematographers are skeptical of the whole green-screen thing.

-- Almost nothing can surprise in the best original screenplay category, where the race is tighter than a Texas hatband. We still think the edge goes to Mark Boal and “The Hurt Locker,” but voters just may throw a curveball and give Quentin Tarantino the statuette for “Inglourious Basterds.”

--- We’ll stick with the conventional wisdom that best actress will go to Sandra Bullock. But what if, after all the non-campaigning from Streep and the talk of this being Sandy’s year, Meryl comes out, pulls a Paul Newman, and breaks the 12-nomination dry spell after all?

--Steven Zeitchik

And the predictions:

Best actress
1) Sandra Bullock
2) Meryl Streep

Best actor
1) Jeff Bridges
2) Jeff Bridges

Best supporting actor
1) Christoph Waltz
2) Christoph Waltz

Best supporting actress
1) Mo’Nique
2) Mo’Nique

Best animated film
1) “Up”
2) “Coraline”

Best cinematography
1) “Avatar”
2) “The White Ribbon”

Best documentary
1) “The Cove”
2) “Food, Inc.”

Best editing
1) “Avatar”
2) “The Hurt Locker”

Best foreign language film
1) “El Secreto de Sus Ojos”
2) “The White Ribbon”

Best animated short
1) “A Matter of Loaf and Death”
2) “Logorama”

Best live action short film
1) “The New Tenants”
2) “Miracle Fish”

Best visual effects
1) “Avatar”
2) “Avatar”

Best adapted screenplay
1) “Up in the Air”
2) “Precious”

Best original screenplay
1) “The Hurt Locker”
2) “Inglourious Basterds”

Best director
1) Kathryn Bigelow
2) James Cameron

Best Picture
1) “Avatar”
2) “The Hurt Locker”