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‘District 9’ moves into Oscar territory (maybe)

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Like a prawn dropping from a spacecraft, “District 9” is unexpectedly back in the middle of the awards field.

Or is it?

The South African political allegory/sci-fi thriller this morning nabbed a nomination from the Producers Guild of America for its top film prize, the first best-picture nomination from an industry group that the Peter Jackson-produced sleeper has drawn.

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That’s good news for fans of the film, which after previously being mentioned as one of the movies that could benefit from the Oscars’ expansion to 10 nomination slots, had kind of fallen off the radar. The PGAs can be a predictive force on the awards circuit: In each of the last five years, four of the five movies that the organization nominated went on to land an Oscar nod for best picture. For those who’d like to see the movie win some Oscar gold come March 7, that’s more good news.

The bad news is that in every one of the past five years there’s also been one PGA nominee that hasn’t made the Oscar list -- and it’s usually a global blockbuster (“The Dark Knight,” “The Incredibles”).

But this year, with both the PGA and the academy switching to 10 slots, it means that by the vast powers of extrapolation and speculation (Oscar pundits’ specialties), there will be two Oscar slots
that the PGAs don’t get right. Given that seven of the other PGA nominees are reasonably strong Oscar candidates ( “Up in the Air,” “Precious,” “Up,” “The Hurt Locker,” “An Education,” “Inglourious Basterds” and “Avatar”) and an eighth (“Invictus”) that also has a pretty good shot, it could make “District 9” and the other summer blockbuster the PGA recognized, “Star Trek,” the odd movies out, and push them off the Oscar list.

Of course, as it has been since the expansion was announced, it’s anyone’s guess what films will be doing the pushing. Never count out a smaller drama having its way with even a serious-minded blockbuster with the academy, as “The Reader’s” triumph over “The Dark Knight” proved last year.

That means prestige films such as the Coen Bros.’ “A Serious Man” and Tom Ford’s period drama “A Single Man” could get the better of the spaceship sagas. And that’s not even counting the lighter summer fare that could nab one of the final slots, particularly “Julia & Julia.’ If that movie squeezed its way in, the prawns of ‘District 9’ could be, well, cooked.

-- Steven Zeitchik

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