Money & Company

Tracking the market and economic trends
that shape your finances.

« Previous Post | Money & Company Home | Next Post »

Obama's reelection odds sink on political futures trading site

August 9, 2011 |  8:20 am

Obama political futures chart
President Obama's reelection odds have tanked along with the stock market in recent days on political futures trading site Intrade.

After holding steady at about 60% for most of the year -- and spiking to 70% in May when U.S. forces killed Osama bin Laden -- the chances that Obama would be reelected next year have plunged this month just like the Dow Jones industrial average.

After Monday's sharp selloff, political futures trading on the site pegged Obama's odds at 50.7%. And despite Tuesday's market turnaround, Obama's odds in early trading on Intrade had dropped to 50%.

Intrade and other prediction market sites like it operate similar to the stock market, allowing people to buy and sell shares of certain events, such as the 2012 presidential nominees or whether Steve Jobs will step down as Apple Inc. chief executive, based on their probability.

It's just another indication of the way politics and the economy are linked. But although Obama's fortunes have dropped sharply on Intrade, that's yet to spill over into his job approval rating. Gallup's daily tracking poll of the president's job approval has been holding steady this month at about 43%.


Obama says U.S. remains 'AAA country'

Dow tumbles 634 points on recession fears

Obama, congressional leaders seek leverage from economic jolt

-- Jim Puzzanghera

Photo: Closing prices of the odds of President Obama's reelection. Credit: Intrade