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Back-to-school sales expected to be down slightly from last year

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The all-important back-to-school shopping season is threatening to slow the retail industry’s recent momentum.

As retailers roll out fresh back-to-school merchandise and tout early deals, a ‘shadow of insecurity’ tied to the nation’s slow economic recovery still looms over many consumers and could hamper their spending, according to the National Retail Federation.

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The retail trade group said in a report Thursday that families with children in kindergarten through high school would spend an average of $603.63 on apparel, school supplies and electronics, down slightly from $606.40 during last year’s back-to-school season.

According to the survey, budget-conscious shoppers will purchase more store-brand or generic items, comparison shop more online and shop for sales. And more people will put their shopping off until late in the season: 31.2% of respondents said they would begin their shopping one or two weeks before school starts, up from 24.8% last year.

Department stores are expected to see a surge in back-to-school traffic thanks to private label brands, promotions and aggressive social media campaigns. According to the survey, 57% of back-to-school shoppers will head to a department store, up from 53.9% last year and the most in the survey’s eight-year history.

At the college level, parents and students will spend an average of $808.71 on apparel, electronics, dorm furnishings and food items, down from $835.73 last year.

Combined kindergarten through college spending is expected to reach $68.8 billion, according to the National Retail Federation. Back-to-school is typically the second-largest sales driver of the year (after the winter holidays).

Another retail group, the International Council of Shopping Centers, has taken a slightly more optimistic tone, predicting this month that sales for the back-to-school season would rise 3% year-over-year.

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Still, that would be a modest gain and below the mid-single-digit sales growth the industry has seen for much of this year.

-- Andrea Chang

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