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Fannie and Freddie shares soar, but for no good reason

December 28, 2009 |  3:37 pm

Speculators poured into shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac today, on the first day of trading after the Obama administration in effect gave the companies blank checks of federal support.

But exactly how the government’s move makes a payoff for Fannie and Freddie shareholders more likely in the long run, rather than less likely, ought to puzzle most investors.

It mystifies veteran banking analyst Bert Ely at Ely & Co. in Alexandria, Va. “They’re not going to get anything back,” he says of any investors who have long-term faith in the mortgage giants’ shares.

Of course, “long-term” for most people trading these stocks probably means an hour or so.

Fanniesign Freddie’s shares jumped 34 cents, or 27%, to $1.60; Fannie’s stock gained 22 cents, or 21%, to $1.27. Trading volume for both was the highest since late October.

The day’s action was reminiscent of the speculative frenzy that erupted in late summer, when Freddie’s shares rocketed from 62 cents at the end of July to $2.40 by the end of August. Fannie’s stock soared from 58 cents to $2.04 in the same period.

The Treasury on Christmas Eve announced that it was removing previously set limits on federal financial aid for the companies, which were seized by the U.S. in September 2008 amid mounting mortgage losses. The aid limits had been $200 billion for each company. Freddie so far has tapped $51 billion and Fannie has used $60 billion.

The administration said it was removing the caps to “leave no uncertainty about the Treasury’s commitment to support these firms as they continue to play a vital role in the housing market during this current crisis.”

Freddiesign But whatever additional federal money flows into Fannie and Freddie would almost certainly come at the expense of shareholders’ remaining stake. The government now owns 80% of both firms.

The administration is supposed to announce its long-term strategy for Fannie and Freddie in February. The companies’ losses could continue to balloon if, as some analysts suspect, the White House were to seek to use the companies to support new mortgage-forgiveness programs that would help struggling homeowners.

Ely points out another reason to doubt that the stocks have any real value: The pay packages the Treasury announced Thursday for the companies’ chief executives consisted exclusively of cash compensation; no shares were offered.

Would you want long-term stock in Fannie or Freddie?

-- Tom Petruno

Top photo credit: Manuel Balce Ceneta / Associated Press; bottom photo credit: Pablo Martinez Monsivais / Associated Press

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