Special Report, Part II: Predictions for California from Realtors convention

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This is the second of four segments from former Chicago Tribune staff writer Mary Umberger, covering the National Assn. of Realtors (NAR) convention in Florida:

California, the traditional housing bellwether, got its share of attention in Friday reports. Despite all the aforementioned somber recitation of data, NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said the state was offering a few glimmers of encouragement.

If the nation’s home sales, indeed, are no longer in plunge mode, it’s because of bargain hunters in California, where prices in some areas have receded as much as 50%, he said. ‘With each passing month, the sales momentum appears to be improving in California,’ he said. ‘California is now showing some recovery.’

Don’t get cocky, though: Yun said that people in California (as well as in Las Vegas, Phoenix and parts of Florida) who bought homes at the peak of the market -- 2004 and 2005 -- might need to wait five to seven years to see a recovery, in individual terms.

The trade group released monthly data for so-called pending sales (signed contracts to purchase homes) for September and the West is the only region to show improvement. Yun did not, however, express encouragement about next month’s report on signed contracts in October, when consumers were particularly spooked about Wall Street.

-- Lauren Beale

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