Foreclosure data getting meaner, especially in California
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There is one ugly conclusion to be drawn from the first-quarter numbers out today on mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures: There will be a lot more homes coming on the market, especially in the Golden State.
Home builders’ stocks look like they’re reflecting that cold reality. Shares of KB Home, Ryland Group and others are mostly lower even as the broader market is rallying.
As expected, the delinquency and foreclosure data from the Mortgage Bankers Assn. showed things got significantly worse in the first quarter. The national delinquency rate, meaning the percentage of home loans 30 days or more past due on payments, jumped to 6.35% (seasonally adjusted) as of March 31 from 5.82% at the end of the fourth quarter.
Breaking that down, the national delinquency rate was 18.8% for sub-prime loans as of March 31 compared with 17.3% as of Dec. 31. For prime loans the rate rose to 3.71% from 3.24%.
California actually ranked below the national averages on delinquencies. A total of 16.9% of sub-prime loans in California were delinquent at the end of the first quarter, down from 18% in the fourth quarter.
The prime-loan delinquency rate for California was 3.52%, up modestly from 3.43% in the fourth quarter.
But Jay Brinkmann, research chief at the mortgage bankers’ group, says the problem in California is that delinquent loans have less of a chance of being cured than in other parts of the country because of the severity of the home price declines here. In other words, delinquencies are more likely to turn into foreclosures in the Golden State.
The first-quarter data bear that out: The percentage of the state’s prime loans in foreclosure soared to 1.49% as of March 31 from 1% three months earlier.
The national prime-loan foreclosure figures, for comparison: 1.22% as of March 31, up from 0.96% in the fourth quarter.
For sub-prime loans, the state’s foreclosure percentage surged to 14.6% from 10.6% at the end of last year, compared with national rates of 10.74% and 8.65%.
The foreclosure data overall suggest ‘a flood of homes back on to the resale market,’ worsening the outlook for prices, Merrill Lynch & Co. economists warned in a note today.
Shares of home builders are taking the hint. The Standard & Poor’s index of 15 major builders’ stocks was off about 2.3% at noon PDT to its lowest since March.