No Disney hug from Wall Street for 'Wall-E'

From Times staff writer Josh Friedman, who covers the movie biz:

Where is the love for "Wall-E"?

The animated, futuristic adventure about a lonely, love-struck robot opened to rave reviews and topped the weekend box office with $63.1 million in domestic ticket sales -- the ninth straight No. 1 launch for Walt Disney Co.’s Pixar studio.

But stock market investors gave Disney shares the cold shoulder Monday, bidding them down 37 cents, or 1.2%, to $31.20.

Part of the problem is that "Wall-E," which 97% of critics endorsed, according to RottenTomatoes.com, "was successful but wasn’t ‘Nemo’-like" in its opening, said Richard Greenfield, an analyst at Pali Research. "Finding Nemo" and "The Incredibles," Pixar’s two biggest hit movies, both opened to slightly above $70 million.

What’s more, Disney got off to a slow start this summer at the box office when its highly anticipated sequel "The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian" fell short of lofty expectations. The first film in the series from Disney and Walden Media, November 2005’s "The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe," grossed $292 million domestically, but "Prince Caspian" has only hauled in about $138 million since its May 16 release.

"And in case you haven’t noticed, the entire media sector is melting down," added the ever-cheerful Greenfield, referring to the stocks. The Bloomberg-Hollywood Reporter index of 39 media issues dipped today to a fresh five-year low. Disney has held up better than many of its peers; the stock is off 3.3% year to date, compared with a 30% plunge in Viacom Inc. shares and a 10.4% drop in Time Warner Inc.

While shares of Disney’s highest-profile rival in the animated film genre, DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc., often are affected by its two feature releases each year, even a Pixar movie is unlikely to move the revenue needle much at a diversified media conglomerate like Disney.

Studio entertainment generates only about 15% of the company’s operating income, while Disney’s theme parks and TV networks, including ESPN, generate significantly larger portions, notes analyst David W. Miller at SMH Capital.

"The broader concern for Disney shareholders is how well are the theme parks going to hold up in this economy," Miller said.

Photo: Wall-E. Disney/Pixar

Comments

[Travis]

I blame the high cost of fuel and food for poor ticket sales. People having to spend $50-$80 on gas are not so keen on spending $10 per person to see the movies.

[demopublican]

"entire media sector is melting down"

Huh?

One analyst in a newspaper says the media industry is in excellent shape (Wanted + Wall-E == 115 for the weekend, that's not the best, but definitely not bad). Another says media is on-track. Another says the media is doing slightly better year-over-year. Then we get this guy saying there's a meltdown... The industry is doing as expected, just look at the numbers to date. This article sounds more like crying wolf (or a FOX?) to me.

[Tom Petruno]

Demopublican: The analyst is referring to the stocks being in a meltdown, not the business itself. I just made that clearer by adding a clause to that paragraph.

[Eric]

Travis, WALL-E did not have "poor ticket sales." It slightly exceeded entertainment industry expectations for this feature, which means it's a solid win for Disney/Pixar.

It may be true that Wall Street stock speculators weren't impressed, but I didn't see anything in this article that shows they actually know any more about what they're talking about than what the spreadsheet in front of them tells them. For example, did WALL-E open on the same number of screens as Nemo or the Incredibles? Did they adjust for inflation? Did they take into account the advertising push? These are all things entertainment analysts look at when predicting the success of a movie. What I get from this article is that stock analysts only look at the bottom-line number and not much else.

[Johnny]

Disney's unlike most studios, since a huge slice of its revenue comes from parks. The high gas prices are making analysts bet that park visitors will be down this summer, and summer's the biggest park season. That's why Disney's stocks are down--Wall-E has nothing to do with it.