Iron ore over bacon burgers: It's no contest on Wall Street
The tale of two markets continues: It’s a lousy time to own shares in many companies directly reliant on the U.S. consumer (even Jack in the Box is having trouble selling burgers, for Pete's sake). But if you have a stake in an iron ore mine -- or in a shipping company that hauls the stuff to China -- life has never been better.
Shares of iron miner Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. surged 3.9% to a record $190.99 today amid continuing optimism that the appetite for iron and steel abroad, particularly in Asia, will remain robust. The massive earthquake in China this week may just stoke demand as rebuilding begins.
Also hitting a record high was U.S. Steel, which jumped 2.7% to $176.61. That helped push the CRX index of 20 commodity-related stocks to a new high as well.
And yet another index at a record today: the so-called Baltic Dry index, which measures global shipping rates for raw materials. It rose nearly 4% to 11,067, topping the previous peak set Nov. 13. That boosted shipping stocks including Genco Shipping & Trading, which closed above $82 for the first time and is up 50% year to date.
Bloomberg has a good explainer on what’s driving shipping rates (story is here), but it comes down to this: There aren’t enough boats afloat to easily meet demand.
All of which throws more cold sea water on the idea of an imminent global recession -- despite the ongoing punk reports on the U.S. economy. The Federal Reserve today said industrial production slid 0.7% last month, twice as much as analysts expected.
For the U.S. manufacturing sector overall, "The strength in exports is not enough on its own to offset the weakening of domestic demand," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, N.Y.
But if you have what China and other developing countries really need, you’re in clover. As for the stocks of companies fortunate to be in that position, however, even commodity-market bulls have to admit the charts look frighteningly frothy at the moment.
