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Researcher projects 5,000 will die in Ciudad Juarez in 2011

Funeral procession ciudad juarez 2010 youth slain

An artificial-intelligence model generated by a university researcher in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, projects that 5,000 people will be killed in the violent border city this year. The same model projected at the start of 2010 that 3,000 would be killed in the greater Juarez area, a figure that eventually reached 3,111 -- about a 94% accuracy rate.

It may seem far-fetched to make such long-term projections on a fluid criminal conflict such as the drug war in Juarez. Researcher Alberto Ochoa, in an interview with La Plaza on Monday, said his model is based on methods that mimic biology-based, or "bioinspired," patterns. Barring a "radical change" in Ciudad Juarez -- where the Juarez and Sinaloa cartels are battling over the drug-trafficking route across the U.S. border into El Paso, Texas -- his projection foresees a figure of roughly 5,000 dead.

"This technique is nothing new," Ochoa said from the Autonomous University of Ciudad Juarez, where he is a researcher at the Center for Social Investigations. "It's not the most accurate model but it is based heavily on reality."

"It's not Excel," the researcher added, referring to the commonly used software program. "The model has to be fed, values have to be adjusted. It's complicated."

By differing measures, Juarez ranks as the most violent city in Mexico, most violent in the Western Hemisphere, or even the most violent in the world, the local newspaper El Diario reported earlier this month (link in Spanish). Juarez, with a current population of 1.3 million, has lost more than 230,000 residents in an "exodus" from the daily barrage of drug-related killings, kidnappings and extortion operations.

"And no one does nothing," Ochoa said. "It's going to get worse."

The 3,111 figure of deaths in Juarez in 2010 is used among local news outlets, citing figures from the Juarez morgue, and includes homicides in the greater Juarez area. Within Juarez city limits, the federal government's recently released homicide database says 2,738 people died there in 2010.

On Sunday in Juarez, gunmen opened fire on a group of young people playing soccer at a new government-built field, killing seven, authorities said (links in Spanish).

-- Daniel Hernandez in Mexico City

Photo: A funeral procession for some of the victims of a January 2010 attack that left 15 young people dead in Ciudad Juarez. Credit: Jesus Alcazar / European Pressphoto Agency

Comments () | Archives (16)

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This may very well be the case, I hope it isn't.

In order to stop this from happening the UN should come in and clean up Mexico. It is clear the current government is incapabile of doing do. The UN should stay around until the drug people are either jailed/killed/orput in prison for ever.

A great number of them are innocent people who have nothing to do with the cartel wars. I would even venture to say most of them.

It's ridiculous when a group of students having a party are all gunned down in a home. It's disgusting that an entire bus full of people was stopped by cartel members who then shot everyone inside. A kids soccer team were all shot. I'm sure they were all pushing drugs.

10,000 children in Juarez are orphaned right now.

All of you heartless, soulless people who have "no sympathy" or "don't care" or are even saying it's a good thing-- you're not human. To be able to see human suffering so close to home, and literally not care-- what the hell is wrong with you? Is it just because they're Mexican? Were you the same people rallying for Egypt and yet-- when it's Mexicans-- "illegal aliens"-- you say: "Good riddance"?

Disgusting.

Out of the estimated 5,000 being killed, how many are cartel members killing each other and how many are innocent civilians? If the vast majority of the 5,000 estimated being killed are cartel members and assassins killing each other, I would hope it would be far greater than 5,000 in a year. The Mexican govt. should buy some drones from the US and deploy them on the cartels. The media reports numbers like 34,000 killed in the war against drugs in Mexico, but they rarely break it down to cartel thugs and innocent civilians.

No sympathy here. Tens of thousands of illegal aliens commit crimes like murder, rape, theft in CA each year. And the people put up with it. I say ship more guns to Juarez. Maybe the few good people there will kill the thug that travel to the US each year.

Illegal aliens? You are still stuck on the illegal alien issue. You need to get over it...sorry to be the one to break this to yall, but we have an ilegal alien in the white house and no one seems to care.

Are those of you that want marijuana legalized crazy? Why would you wish what is going on in Mexico to come here? Get real! The cartels would simply just move up here as in fact they are alreday doing. Why would anyone wnant a nation of potheads unless of course, you are already a pothead or your mother is a pothead and thus you can see nothing wrong with this cancerous evil. But then I am the insne one trying to convince those impossible to reach, the millions of home grown potheads themselves.

Misery does in deed seek company.

I'm not one of those that's into blaming America first for what's wrong with the world but in this case let's be rational for just one second and recognize that if Americans stopped using/buying illegal drugs the drug wars would be over tomorrow., plain and simple!

Don't kid yourselves people, 100% of the cash used to wage a bloody, violent, endless drug war in Mexico comes from the U.S. and 90% of the guns & ammo used to wage that bloody war comes from U.S. suppliers as well.

And here's another little tid-bit - A full 60% of the cartels' profits come exclusively from marijuana exports to the U.S. and not from other stuff like cocaine, etc. So think about that the next time you vote down a measure to legalize marijuana.

Can you imagine how much lower the number would be IF the people could acctualy protect themselves with Guns? Since Mexico has BANNED ALL GUNS and AMMO, so America look to the south to see what happens when you dissarm the entire Country from their God given gight to protect themselves....Just food for thought..At least in America these Gun crazy idiots can be stoped by good citizens with guns...Fight Fire with Fire...

The U.S. needs to pass an emergency bill that allows Americans to grow their own cannabis. Leave all other substances illegal but legalize weed in this country.........why is this so hard for people to understand. Drug trafficking organizations would begin unravelling if 50% of their revenue vanished overnight. Then law enforcement would most likely have the upper hand when it comes to interdicting their coke, meth, and heroin loads. Common sense America

WHO CARES!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Shall we talk about HOW MANY AMERICANS will die because of Mexican illegal aliens!!!!

NO...cause it goes against the LA Times Illegal alien propaganda.

These murders in Mexico will continue unabated just as predicted as long as the users of these illicit drugs in this country pay zero penalties for their "recreational"
drug habits. The day this country decides to step up to the plate and become a mature member nation of this planet and implements a draconian law that harshly punishes the user who is the most responsible for the over 32,000 deaths in Mexico, not until then will our neighbor to the south be able to get a handle on the death grip that is now strangling that country. Today the USA needs to implement a universal, mandatory drug testing program with teeth and claws that punish every user testing positive with the loss of job, professional license and or college scholarship. To not implement such a measure is to beg that those killings now in Mexico in the future become our reality. Look to Tucson as the preamble to what may come if we as a nation continue to allow tens of millions of our citizens to live as potheads and cokeheads. Mexican drug cartels get their marching orders from the American user and his almighty dollar.

Solidspine,

"What drug from Mexico is the top producer of cash?"

Marijuana.

It's absolutely insane. I still can't believe marijuana is illegal.

oh come on guys, why would you want to predict the death of the civilians? it sounds as if you want 5,000 people to die!

So, how many generations before state corruption gets to US levels?
Maybe the model can be adjusted to estimate the answer.

Maybe more people from Juarez should just move to another city or country.
Stupid drug cartels.

Meanwhile, across the river in El Paso, where ANYONE can legally carry a concealed weapon, and ANYONE can legally use a gun to defend him or herself, there was exactly ONE murder last year.

Ain't gun control great?

The Mexicans are going crazy, what drugs are so important? What drug from Mexico is the top producer of cash?


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