Study: Legalizing marijuana in California would not make a big dent in Mexican cartels' profits

A ballot initiative in California that would permit possession, production and taxation of small amounts of marijuana for personal use would do little to curtail the profits of violent drug-trafficking cartels in Mexico, according to a new study released by non-partisan Rand Corp.

Proposition 19, which goes before California voters on Nov. 2, has been criticized by Mexican President Felipe Calderon. "Drugs kill in production. Drugs kill in distribution, as is the case in the violence in Mexico, and drugs kill in consumption," Calderon told The Times' Richard Marosi last week in an interview in Tijuana.

The Rand study, released Tuesday, estimates that Mexican cartels earn $1 billion to $2 billion yearly from moving pot into the United States -- a much lower figure than cited in previous estimates by the U.S. government and other groups -- and says legalizing marijuana in California probably would cut their overall drug-export revenues by just 2% to 4%.

"The only scenario where legalization in California could substantially reduce the revenue of the drug trafficking organizations is if high-potency, California-produced marijuana is smuggled to other U.S. states at prices that are lower than those of current Mexican supplies," said the Rand  news release.

-- Daniel Hernandez in Mexico City

Photo: Prop. 19 supporter Richard Lee, founder of California's first marijuana trade school. Credit: Peter DaSilva, for The Los Angeles Times

Comments

[Prop 19 blows]

Screw prop 19. Fix the damn economy and quit trying to slap bandaids on it. Do you really think this prop will have ANY economic benefits??? Why would people pay taxes on pot when they have been growing it illegaly for decades?? I do NOT want big corp to take over the pot industry. I voted NO on prop 19.

[ROD WOODBURN]

MARIJUANA SHOULD BE LEGALIZED. IT IS JUST ONE FISH IN THE GIANT AMERICAN FISH BOWL OF ISSUES THE GOVERNMENT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE LINE TOOK CONTROL OVER. IF THIS PLACE WERE REALLY A GOVERNMENT OF THE PEOPLE THERE WOULD BE UNION I.D. CARDS AND HEALTH CARE FOR EVERYONE THAT WORKS OR IS RETIRED. THE CAESARIAN SYSTEM NEEDS TO MAKE WAY FOR THE UNION OF THE PEOPLE OF THIS PLANET. BYE THE WAY, THE BEST POT IS GROWN IN COLUMBIA. I KNOW THAT FROM HIGH SCHOOL. PFFFFFFFFF....!!!!!!!!!

[mikeinreality]

It's weird that the LAtimes is continually propagating misinformation about this potential law. Your latest poll suggested the bill loosing badly, but your poll had the highest margin of error from any other poll (don't believe me, check it out yourself. ..it's called google.) Also, the margin of error(4.7%), you used is more than 2 standard deviations AWAY, which means it is statistically insignificant, and in no way representational. In other words, you lied and your poll was far from science and taints your credibility on the above referenced study as well. I can make that assessment easily, because a statistician would have advised you of it, after he told you the way he came to his findings. In short, what is your real issue here? This bill is an awesome thing for the basic principles of our federal republic. Think about the possibilities. If prop 19 passes, we may actually gain momentum for one of the longest, most racist, deepest dark spots in our nations history, ie. the war on drugs. Stop acting as a tool for large evil corporate interests and get behind the people of your city. God, what a terrible paper you are. I now remember why I read the nytimes.

[Kevin]

The govt. sponsored RAND Corp. admitted that the cartels would have NO reason to ship their garbage pot to California. But would California re-legalizing Cannabis eliminate the cartels entirely? Of course not. In order for that to happen, Cannabis would have to be re-legalized nationwide!

The price of prohibition is just not worth it! Yes on 19!

[Bill Buckeye]

"The only scenario where legalization in California could substantially reduce the revenue of the drug trafficking organizations is if high-potency, California-produced marijuana is smuggled to other U.S. states at prices that are lower than those of current Mexican supplies," said the Rand"

You mean like they do today? A pound of weed in Mendocino is $4000, the same pound in the Midwest is $6000 and over. Now if thecost of living in Northern California is 50% higher than say in Indiana, Ohio, etc. That means that the weed costs more to produce, and is less expensive.

Classic Harvard degree study, all think and no reality.

[Leonard Krivitsky, MD]

Cannabis is less physically addictive than caffeine, while the so-called "gateway drug" theory is a complete fantasy, and it was just recently called "half-baked" as a result of a scientific study. CNN reported that Cocaine use has dropped sharply, by 30% since 2002, which is really good news. I worked in addiction medicine for years, and this is what I can advice on the matter: Any suppression of Cannabis use will be immediately followed by an increase in alcohol/hard drug/prescription drug abuse! You don't believe me? Then maybe you will believe the Big Alcohol lobby that is financing the Cannabis Legalization opponents for exactly this reason. Right now Cannabis is just simply perceived as a much safer alternative to alcohol/hard drugs, which is precisely how it should be perceived. To have a society in which there is NO psychoactive substance use is an illusion, and it will be good for our government to realize this. So then, it becomes a matter of "safer choices", just like with the sex education. And Cannabis is, without a shadow of a doubt, a much safer choice than alcohol or hard drugs! Just very recently a research study in addiction medicine has determined that Cannabis may actually serve as an "exit" substance for recovering alcoholics/hard drug addicts! And there is another extremely important property of Cannabis that the prohibitionists would love to keep secret: Cannabis use suppresses violent urges and behaviors and, as one prestigious textbook says, "Only the unsophisticated think otherwise" Then, of course, there is a potential of Cannabis in chronic pain, where other drugs may be ineffective (or physically addictive), with very important potential consequences for our wounded veterans, many of whom have chronic pain. It is also worth noting that Cannabis may have certain preventative value for such devastating conditions as cancer and Alzheimer's disease. And all this comes with no danger of overdoses or induction of a physical dependence! Let's be very happy that the cocaine abuse rate is dropping. Let's not interfere with these dynamics, and then we can possibly achieve what has already been achieved in the Netherlands where the drug overdose rate is 85%(!!) lower than in the US, and that is with much more liberal Cannabis possession laws than in this country! Maybe it is time to give up "dogma" about Cannabis, and to start listening to the experts, if we really want to lower the alcohol/hard drug use in this country, and the accompanying dependencies and overdoses!

[tedson]

Currently, possession of 5 grams of marijuana is legal in Mexico so why would the president of Mexico criticize the same law being passed in California? He needs to figure out a way to put his people to work at decent wages.

[Galaxy420*]

Another negative marijuana article from the times. YAWN

Yes on 19

[svcotty]

they estimate between 1-2 billion..

thats a pretty big estimate?? is it 1 or 2 billion or 5 for that matter

how do they know its only gonna slow the cartels down 2-4% if they dont even know how much the cartels make off the drug

[jadelyn]

Well let's see if this makes it up. News Flash - Rand Corp has ties to Big Pharma. They aren't sacrosanct.

And gee whiz, I guess we just aren't doing enough to undercut the cartels by legalizing it here, now we have to illegally export it to other states to make any sort of significant impact. Give me a break. Now they are grasping for straws.

[Abol Litionist]

The Rand? Oh boy, what a mouthpiece for the prohibitionists. They finally realized that 60% of the drug cartels profits being removed via legalization would be a bad thing for their jobs program. Because, legalization really will fatally cripple most drug dealers. The 60% figure also includes the marijuana being grown on America's public lands by the Mexican drug cartel & is accurate. This 'news article' by the Rand is a sad attempt to disarm the righteous anger Americans on every border are feeling over the disgusting drug wars caused by cannabis prohibition. Strange coincidence it came out just before Californians are about to re-legalize cannabis. it's this simple, cannabis prohibition itself is far more harmful to America than cannabis consumption is. This article is dead wrong & the time to finally end the scam war on cannabis use is now.

[EgadsNo]

"Would do little" I think that actually means it would make a dent, but I digress. It figures that Office of National Drug Control Policy came up with the faulty statistic of 60% of cartel money originating from selling pot in the US, there entire job is prevention of class 1 drugs from becoming legalized and detering their use, and in the bill that ratified them into existence tells them they can lie to the American people.

But this is only a measure to hide the facts that have been revealed quietly by many of the finest educational institutes across the world, with insights learned only possible within the past 15 years into the intricate mechanics involved in the human interaction with cannibinoids.

Cancer: It fights and prevents it, yep even smoking unfiltered joints several times a day, cannibinoids reverse DNA damage- that is nothing really that amazing, vitamins do it too, hell blackberry juice can correct up to 450 different genes in just your throat. But the speciffic gene (P38, and P53) are both related to a process called apoptosis, every single type of cancer MUST turn this off to exist. Cannibinoids restores this ability- that can prevent a cancerous cell from forming- or kill one. It also has an effect on cancer by means of managing the vascular system, it will reduce the amount of blood supply in two distinct ways, 1. it causes vasoconstriction (shrinks temporarily) 2. prevents and reverses growth of vascular system (shrinks long term)

Vascular: Ok so it reduces blood flow in a tumor- so what if it does that in another part of hte body like the brain? Well it doesnt, in glaucoma it does the exact opposite, if you have a heart attack- cannibinoids will prevent cells in the heart from dying- they will also spur the growth of more vascular system to repair the damaged tissue. Their is a risk associated with having a heart attack, just so happens that moving your bowels is over 43 times more dangerous though according to the same statistics (as indicated by a harvard professor after a review of the study and its statistics) It also protects cells from dying in result of a stroke.

There is a negative to that though- if you got stabbed in the heart it would be more difficult for you body to repair without scarring, as less cells would have died from injury. But that is really more of an alcoholics problem isnt it?

The effect on the brain is that it restores the hippocampus to normal size and function, the hippocampus is directly damaged from stress. Marijuana is one of the few substances on the planet that promote neurogenesis on its own. It causes the release of 5-6 stress hormones, not a single one of them are the damaging type, that is the other half of stress hormones which our brain uses to forget horrible memories but they cause immense activity in your hippocampus (it is exercising the networks) and as result the user under effects has a dimished short term memory, in the long term you actually have a better short term and long term memory when sober. There is a build up of lactic acid in the brain, just as muscles do when you jog, so it does lower efficiency slightly- but this effect is completely reversed. Since marijuana is neither a stimulant or depressant (at least if you looked at a semi recent to up to date pharmacology book) it does not make cause you to make poor decision- it does cause a lack of short term memory while under the effect but that is not decision making skill. Alcohol is a depressant, it cares not what kind of cell it is, it will slow it down to the point of death if there is enough. Marijuana always effects cannibinoid receptors (it makes a direct interaction, not just screwing up the cells environment like alcohol) the same way- there are governors in the cell that will turn it off before it can cause any damage.

So you have a recreational drug that cures the damage caused by stress, is oddly healthy for you, does not make people violent, or lazy (because it cant(but alcohol does)) and it is in question for use by people?

By the way all the people who thinks pot makes people lazy- its depression that makes people lazy, and depressed people are more likely to use a recreational drug, you can check those statistics at department of labor website.

Science has shown it promotes a healthy, happier, longer life- isnt that reason enough? I guess not if nobody is listening...