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Latest Field Poll shows voters turning against marijuana proposition

Californians who plan to cast ballots are turning against Proposition 19, the measure to legalize marijuana, according to the Field Poll, which found likely voters were opposed to it, 49% to 42%.

That’s a reversal from last month, when the poll found likely voters favored it. Among those polled, 9% are still undecided, a figure that has been relatively unchanged for months.

Mark DiCamillo, the pollster, said he believed that U.S. Atty. Gen. Eric Holder’s promise to enforce federal drug laws no matter what California voters did was persuasive. He also noted that the campaign was largely uneventful until Holder’s late-in-the-game entry.

"I think voters were toying with Proposition 19," he said, noting that the Field Poll and others had found that about half the electorate favored legalizing marijuana but that support for this initiative had slipped. "In the final analysis, they just didn’t think it was realistic."

The poll found the biggest drop in support among Democrats, who backed it by 60% last month and now supported it by 51%. Men also have switched sides, moving from 54%-38% for it to 48%-44% against it. Voters ages 40 to 49 also flipped, from 53% in favor to 52% opposed.

Opposition also increased among women and voters who are 65 or older.

Support remains strongest among the youngest voters. Voters ages 18 to 39 backed it by a 26-point margin last month and still favored it by a 16-point margin.

Proposition 19 would allow adults 21 and older to possess and grow small amounts of marijuana, and it would allow cities and counties to authorize commercial production and retail sales.

The proposal remains popular in the San Francisco Bay Area, the home field of the most prominent marijuana activists, and pulled ahead elsewhere in Northern California. It is behind in Southern California and the Central Valley. In Los Angeles County, where a quarter of the voters reside, it was ahead, 58% to 37%, last month, but had fallen behind and was now opposed, 51% to 38%.

The Field Poll also found that likely voters remained opposed to Proposition 23, which would suspend the state’s global warming law. They oppose it 48% to 33%, with 19% undecided.

Likely voters favor Proposition 25, which would allow the Legislature to approve a state budget on a majority vote, rather than two-thirds. They back it 48% to 31%, with 21% undecided.

Field polled 1,501 registered voters, with 1,092 being likely voters, Oct. 14-26. Interviewers called voters on the phone and conducted the survey in six languages. The poll of likely voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

-- John Hoeffel

 
Comments () | Archives (26)

Even with the estimable celebrities Melissa Etheridge and Danny Glover getting behind it?!

Wow, and to think they even had the staggeringly influential Melissa Etheridge and Danny Glover holding a press conference to endorse it. You would think with that estimable backing- the sky's the limit!

PROP 19 WINS!

That's MY headline. The Times can stuff their headline. And they're going to eat their words, too, on Wednesday.

Phone call polling is dated and ineffective since more and more people use only cell phones. By not contacting cell phones they remove most of the young voters.

They called home numbers of 1,501 registered voters, including 1,092 likely voters in California’s 2010 general election. With over 17 million voters they asked only those with home phones. Even if they had asked user with cell phones 1,092 voters is ruffly .0064% of the voters. That's laughable at best. These polls serve no purpose but to push propaganda and try to deter voter turn out.

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2010/10/18/102226/beware-of-polls-that-exclude-cell.html good article on why cell phones are not polled.

Oh well, people are still going to get high regardless.

Make anything illegal and you create a risk of a prison sentence and death for those who want to deal in said illegal substance.

That risk creates a black market that results in an insane price markup for the substance (with marijuana, the markup is hundreds of times higher as opposed to if it were exchanged on the free market).

The obvious effect of this black market markup is the establishment of criminal enterprises that deal in the stuff and make huge profits. It's not too hard to see that foreign cartels are making a killing off of pot and said profits are allowing them to undermine legitimate governments in Mexico.

In addition, the cartels operate in national forests throughout California and they pollute the land with all the toxic junk they put on their grow ops.

Legalization is the only way to get rid of the artificial price incentive for the cartels. Take away their money and you take away their power to pollute our forests and murder people with impunity. With cartels making around 60 percent of their profit from the high dollars illegal weed brings in, legalization would be a blow to them.

Keep the hard stuff illegal, but legalize weed.

Yes on Prop 19!

The LA times the joke rag of pseudo-entertaintment journalism. This is like the ninth or tenth poll that they've commissioned in the last week stating the same lie. I believe that the LA Times is putting these fake poll numbers out to try to personally dissuade voters from voting Yes on 19. The LA Times was against Prop 19 from the beginning, it's not a surprise that every single articles published from them has been in staunch opposition. I only wonder as to why the LA Times would be so against Prop 19? What is in it for them if the measure fails? When the overwhelming view in California from other polls and publications have shown positive results.

In reality, it's no big deal what U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder said about enforcing federal law. He has to enforce it. LOL Proposition 19 has to do with state, not federal law. The DEA and the feds will crack down on large or commercial scale grows and limelight dispensaries. It will have no effect on personal grows or personal use. The feds do not have the resources to enforce it's ignorant laws on the individual user or grower.

The polls are up and down, but in the end, ALL the polls underestimate the pro-Prop 19 vote because there is still a significant stigma attached to supporting legalization. No one wants to admit support on the phone because they're paranoid that the feds are keeping a list of "pro" legal supporters. LOL So the telephone polls mean nothing. Propostion 19 will win by a large margin.

If Prop 19 fails to pass, I will be the first in line to sign the petition to end all alcohol sales in California...period. In fact I will donate $1000 to help initiate the end of alcohol sales in California via petition/proposition. If most of Arkansas can be dry so can California...drink to that you prohibitionists. Vote yes on Prop 19

Thanks for that, truthplease. The link given in the comment of truthplease below indicates that surveys made to land lines only yield results much more favorable to Republicans, enough to carry the results given in the article beyond credibility. The facts given in the article would no doubt apply still more in California. The LAT survey provides another example of Republican shenanigans and subterfuge to manipulate the vote. Don't let them do it!

Vote YES for Proposition 19!


Vote yes on 19 and get every pro-19 voter you can to do the same! Don’t let lies and polls of miniscule biased insignificant portions of the population keep you away from the polls! 19 has a great chance of passing and every yes vote counts!

LEGALIZE IT! I'm voting 'Yes' on 19 and so should you!

http://www.dankweed.com

"The Broadus Effect" ....it's true. Polls on this issue are pointless. Everyone I know, even the ones who say they don't think it will pass, even the ones who think it is flawed, is voting for Prop 19. That includes, the conservatives, who all want the tax money, and even the religious, they actually see that marijuana is a less harmful substance than the wine they drink; that's how you know we are not in Oklahoma, the Christians are down with the puffin'. I can't wait for Nov. 3 when the headline reads, "Landslide victory for Prop. 19."

There's only one poll that matters, and it's not taken by the LA Times.

We all know the drug war is a sham. Anyone who wants to get high in Cally is getting high in Cally, so let's stop pretending our war on drugs has any effect other than lining the pockets of the DEA, ONDCP and the drug cartels.

VOTE YES ON 19!

William C tells the truth!

The LA times is one of the most biased rags in existence. The recent 52-39 lie of a poll -- and every other poll they've released, including the recent Brown/whitman poll -- was formulated to show the results they wanted it to show. 400-ish people is hardly a large enough pool of responders from which to draw an accurate conclusion. I guess the times can't be bothered to concern itself with accuracy or integrity.

Don't believe the lying propaganda that the newspapers, the radical right, and the old has-been pols like dianne feinstein have been spewing. There's still time to find out the real facts about prohibition and why anything we can do to eliminate the black market will make California a safer place for everybody.

Don't forget the history of alcohol prohibition. Lives got ruined and some people got killed. All it took was 13 years before it was repealed. The only reason marijuana was kept illegal all these years is racism and profit.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bHeA5gj6eiI

What we have now is far worse than alcohol in the 20's. It's time to end the stupidity and the violence associated with the war against pot. Don't believe the lies. Keep billions from going underground or over the border, untaxed, every year. Vote yes on prop 19!

P. S. -- Lady di fi, you ought to hang it up. Just as the teabaggers have been primary-ing republicans they feel aren't conservative enough, the Dems will primary the gutless republicrats. Stunts like this will be remembered. If you run, we're going to primary you!

Brown/Boxer/No on 23 and 20/Yes on 27 and 19! ☮

The biggest crime against America has been the illegalization of hemp. For hemp can make literally everything that can be made from oil, plastics, timber and more. Hemp is the world's most useful plant, and fighting a war against it is utterly ridiculous on so many levels. How much longer before we WAKE UP and allow hemp to bring prosperity back to America?

VOTE NO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! the last thing california needs is a bunch of loser low lives running around, and dispensaries on every corner. IT WILL GHETTOFY OUR NEIGHBORHOODS... CANT WAIT!

So I asked my family and my step-mother says we (as a family) are going to vote "no" on prop 19. Once she walks away my father leans over and says, don't tell her, but i'm voting "yes".

From what I have read, when polling individuals in person or on the phone, the "no" vote wins - when polling electronically, the "yes" vote wins which would make sense with the example above.

In an Article from the Associated Press – Maria Cheng, Britain's Centre for Crime and Justice Studies found that Alcohol is more dangerous than illegal drugs like heroin and crack cocaine. British experts evaluated substances including alcohol, cocaine, heroin, ecstasy and marijuana, ranking them based on how destructive they are to the individual who takes them and to society as a whole.
Researchers analyzed how addictive a drug is and how it harms the human body, in addition to other criteria like environmental damage caused by the drug, its role in breaking up families and its economic costs, such as health care, social services, and prison.
So we have an analytical study by scientist dispelling the myths our government has been spouting all these years. But most of us knew it really was about the money and had no bearing on the health of our nation. We still have the best government money can buy.
Go to www.TheLancet.com for more information on the study.

VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES VOTE YES

I will continue to use marijuana every single day of my life whether Prop 19 passes or not. NOBODY can tell me what to do! GO VOTE!!!! These polls are extremely inaccurate! DO NOT LET THE GOVERNMENT TELL YOU WHAT TO DO IN ANY SITUATION! This is the land of the free! NOT the land of control!

And the L.A. Times is still resorting to propaganda, lies, and scare tactics in yet another failed attempt to brainwash voters and further their own prohibitionist agenda. Very lame. You call this fluff piece NEWS?
Supporters of proposition 19 don't want to be judged by prohibitionists on the telephone. Therefore many yes on 19 voters will not tell the truth to live pollers. This also helps explain why in automated polls, the yes on 19 campaign leads by a landslide. Lastly, these field polls only represent a small fraction of all voters, making their collective significance quite small.
The L.A. Times is trying to ingrain the federal governments threats into the minds of voters. Scare tactics. If it is voted in, then it is the will of the people. Last time I checked, our government is of the people, for the people, and by the people. Those people are us voters. Therefore, eventually even the federal government will be forced to back off. Point is, Eric Holder's press release has had zero impact on swaying pro 19 votes.
The L.A. Times has been putting out fluff pieces against prop 19 from day one. Face it L.A. times, the majority of your readers are YES ON PROPOSITION 19! And... THIS IS NOT NEWS!!!

Vote NO on 19! Keep it medical!!!!Decrimanelize don't leagelize!Try to reform and make better the medical part of it. Beleive it would put quiite a few people out of work.It would help the state with the taxes,but would the little guy suffer?How long would it take for the benefits to trikle down?Would it kill the small buisnes owners?

Let's hope the ones in support of it are far too stone to turn out to vote.

Typical over-reach of governement, except this time the Republicans want to over-reach, The Republicans will call foul when the Democrats want to "over-reach" and give healthcare to all Americans. But when the the American people want to legalize pot the Republicans say, "this is a legitimate reason for big government to control
decisions American's make." Repulican over-reach, TAX THE CHURCH!

 
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