Southern California is overdue for 'The Big One,' study finds

Southern California is overdue for a major earthquake along the San Andreas fault, according to a landmark study released Friday.

The long-awaited study came after scientists spent years studying the geology of the Carrizo Plain area of the San Andreas, which is about 100 miles northwest of Los Angeles. It found that earthquakes along the San Andreas fault have occurred far more often than previously believed.

"What we know is for the last 700 years, earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault have been much more frequent than everyone thought," said UC Irvine researcher Sinan Akciz said in a statement. "Data presented here contradict previously published reports."

Added UCI researcher Lisa Grant Ludwig: "People should not stick their heads in the ground. There are storm clouds gathered on the horizon. Does that mean it's definitely going to rain? No, but when you have that many clouds, you think, 'I'm going to take my umbrella with me today.' That's what this research does: It gives us a chance to prepare."

The last massive earthquake on that part of the fault occurred in 1857. But researchers from UC Irvine and Arizona State University found that earthquakes have occurred as often as every 45 to 144 years.

That would make the region overdue for the type of catastrophic quake often referred to as "The Big One."

The finding adds weight to the view of many Southern California seismologists that the San Andreas has been in a quiet period and that a major rupture is possible.

The research, published Friday in the journal Geology, used charcoal samples to look for earthquake activity going back centuries.

-- Rong-Gong Lin II

Updated, 6:21 p.m.: Study shakes up scientists' view of San Andreas fault earthquake risk

Top photo: Evidence of the 1857 Ft. Tejon quake is evident on the side wall of this trench at the Bidart Fan. This area in the Carrizo Plain is one of the easiest places to see movement on the San Andreas Fault. Bottom photo: UC Irvine postdoctoral scholar Sinan Akciz, left, and J. Ramon Arrowsmith, a geologist at Arizona State University, right, are seen in 2009 as they work with Lisa Grant Ludwig on mapping the history of temblors on a portion of the San Andreas Fault. Credit: Ricardo DeAratanha / Los Angeles Times

Comments

[Sean]

If time to go then go. What are you worried about? Let bring it on this economy needs it. Tell me the future. Anytime now. I can say so too.

[sstrander]

I have heard this before few times in the past going back a few decades (that it is way overdue) however it is very good to remind people that IT is coming, someday, eventually. According to math, it should be happening as you read this article...thats how overdue it is.

Instead of relying on others or blaming, best thing is to prepare as well as you can and then some more and more. If it does not come in your lifetime then that is very good and nothing really lost except some money and you and your family time...however if it happens... Also, it has very high premium however still need to give some serious consideration buying the EarthQ insurance if you have home or buildings, etc.

If EVERYONE of us is prepared (e.g. emergency escape plan, supply, contact, etc, etc) to some extent, it would make the catastrophic situation much more survivable, can help others and also give us wider margin to start the rebuilding process more quickly and surly afterward.

Just remember...Mother Nature still is the Champion...how much you struggle against it, it is mute point. With our current puny science you may get an illusion of control or even subduing her.

Wake up from your fantasy. You cannot beat her in any meaningful way...she will get back to you with absolute raw power that will be make the force of the Katrina the Hurricane like a small dimple in a small pond. It will humble you, break you, show you how insignificant you are in the scheme (or dictated randomness) of Universe. Adapt to her, Coexist with her, survive her occasional wraths...it’s all worth every drops of sweats and blood...for we are riding on the best, most wonderful spaceship that Mother Nature gave us…should be externally thankful that you have been given best free ride.

[Crimes]

OMFG! Scare the masses so you get more federal funding to keep your jobs. WE get it!!! I have lived here my WHOLE life, and that WHOLE time we have been over due for the BIG ONE. We can't stop it, we can only be prepared for it.

30 years ago, you could not have a earthquake that cause another earthquake. As a kid I wondered why not? Then about 5-8 yrs. ago, the experts said they found evidence that this can occur.

The question was posed that "can small quakes near a major fault, release pressure"? Some say yes, some say no. If yes then you really can't predict what will happen unless you map all intersection faults. Keep tryin to predict, keep doing your field research, keep scaring the public.

You can't stop it. So just be prepared, to sustain yourself for 2 weeks alone, and deal with it when, if, it happens.

[Frank Visa]

How will this affect the U.S. economy? Will it help because manufacturing will be outsourcd to the other States, or will it drag the country down with it?

[frank]

It's true it COULD happen... but then again, it might not....

I'll take my chances and continue living in the best climate in the world.

[Anjelica Benitez]

The thing about earthquakes is that there is no definitive way to predict when they will occur. The movements offer very little advanced warning in terms of seismic activity, so as of right now, these scientific predictions are educated guesswork at best.

[Bob Thomas]

This is hardly "man bites dog" news. When I was a freshman at USC, I had a geology professor who predicted the "big one" would hit within 25 years. That class was in 1963.

[James Bond]

Disaster can happen anywhere.
It's mother nature. Just let it be.
Don't worry...be happy....

[William Wagner]

How many useless mixed metaphors can Lisa Grant Ludwig use?

[Mike88]

Studies find it is still due. Geniuses....

[Krissy]

they've seen saying this for years and nothing has happened! They said it was supposed to happen sometime between 1990-2000! Remember the Movie "The Big One"? that was made in like 1989-1991?

[Donald]

I for one have grown rather used to being alive and would like to continue doing so, that is why I have put together my survival pack, just in case. Donna todays technology just can't tell us just when a big earthquake will hit and that is the world we live in. Each one of us will get exactly one chance to get ready before it hits, and if you fail to get ready, well then its been nice knowing you. Look at it this way, we don't know just when it will happen, but know that it will. they saw hurricane Katrina coning for five or six days before it hit, and it still took them a week to get into the city. each and every one of us has to make a choice and that choice is this, stay alive or be a statistic, I chose life, my family is depending on me to be there and help guide them to safety. My family has a plan and each one of us knows just what to do and where to reunite, Donna do yourself a favor and get ready now, you may not get another chance!

[Levi]

They can't predict the weather right....how can they predict the BIG ONE!! I grew up in So Cal 63 years ago...Thats all I ever heard...prepare for the BIG ONE..so after the Northridge quake I moved to PHX....OHHHH I SOOO MISS LOS ANGELES......I never go back to visit for fear THE BIG ONE will hit when I'm there....I must say, it is very frightening.....if you've never been in a quake, I'd suggest you start praying now and GEAR UP!! I still have a whislte and shoes and flashlight by my bed.....and tons of water and candles and trash bags .....just in case we feel it here.....PREPARE NOW!!!

[Laurel]

as others have said, They've been saying this for years.... like all of last century. If they're so great at predicting where earthquakes will strike, how is it they were SOOOOO surprised at the huge quakes in Haiti and Chile?

[mason casey]

I'm waiting for the opportunity to run down the street Naked!!!

[Juju31]

Did this reporter repurpose an article from 1968?
This is not news. It's been common knowledge for decades.

[Loonesta]

I hope El Grande doesn't happen in this current economy, to this non-budgeted state.

[West Valley Dave]

So tell us something we don't already know.

[merryjoe]

I could have told them just from common sense everything this extensive "study" concluded after "years".

Be prepared.

But thanks anyway.

[Tim]

This means very little. Maybe the San Andreas will never slip again. There was a time it didn't even exist. There are extinct volcanoes, dried up lakes ... things change.

According to geographic evidence, the drought in Death Valley is a few million years overdue for rain. It used to rain there all the time. Are they still waiting for the Big Storm?

Besides, we don't know the big picture. Maybe the frequency looks something like this: 5 years ago, 10 years ago, 15, 20, 520, 525, 530, 535, 540, 1040, 1045, 1050 years ago, etc...

[angie garcia]

well if it is gonna happen i pray me and my family will be together and you better belive we got our kits ready,yea you just never know,but we LOVE our CALIFORNIA dont we! LOL

[angie garcia]

Yea! bring it on baby!!! Were tuff in Calif.

[Echo Mama]

I'm planning on moving to Alaska but I'm afraid Palin's low IQ and stupidity maybe contagious.

[peter wolf]

Great. Just what we need on top of all the other lousy news in this state. I only hope The Big One waits long enough for me to get out of here.

[Getready]

The water system & gas lines are in a position to fail (as reported in many studies) for most of Los Angeles area, power will be down, fires & floods in large portions of the city will cause a complete break down of any first responders. The roads will be in complete grid lock due to people "getting out", with very little gas available due to power outages, the roads will be blocked with cars out of fuel. People should be able to live for at the very least 2 - 3 weeks without any "help" coming to their rescue. I am afraid very few people are prepared for this event & thus rioting & lawlessness will follow.

GET A PLAN & SUPPLIES - You will need both!