Earthquake warning for California fault line proves accurate

 

California earthquake experts have been saying for weeks that the 7.2 temblor on Easter Sunday in Mexicali had placed pressure on two Southern California fault lines -- the Elisnore and the San Jacinto -- making quakes there more likely.

They proved prescient. 

The 5.4 earthquake that rattled Southern California on Wednesday evening appeared to hit along the San Jacinto fault, officials said. That fault runs roughly from the Salton Sea area northwest through the San Jacinto Mountains toward San Bernardino.

Scientists are now studying how the Mexicali quake changed the pressure of various Southern California fault lines. One questions: Did the temblor make quakes more likely along more dangerous fault lines, such as the Whittier — which produced the deadly 1987 Whittier Narrows quake? Scientists are particularly interested in the Whittier fault because it's connected to the Elsinore and runs under heavily populated areas.

The 5.4 quake on Wednesday wasn't exactly an aftershock of Mexicali.

"We've been calling those 'triggered earthquakes,' " Caltech seismologist Kate Hutton said, referring to temblors north of the aftershock zone that runs from the Gulf of California to Ocotillo, Calif., near the Mexican border.

"We've been able to see an increase in activity," Hutton said. Wednesday's earthquake was the largest to hit the Elsinore and San Jacinto fault zones since the April 4 shaker.

-- Rong-Gong Lin II and Hector Becerra

Map credit: University of Oregon

Comments

[Ozonator]

If they were predicting instead of lucky, they would have mentioned what so few aftershocks mean. The quake energy trail can be found under:
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=128268488
The quake predictions in this NPR blog were deleted from the comments under “The big one: California's future earthquake probabilities” ( By Christopher Wager; digitaljournal.com, 7/4/10).

[Sam]

Seismologists are to real scientists as chiropractors are to medical doctors. Or "Climate Scientists" for that matter.

I remember in the 80's the LA Times headline was "Big One Within 20 Years!" Then in 1990 "Big One Within 20 Years!" Then in 2000 "Big One Within 20 Years!" What's the effect, people tune out seismologists and experts just as we tune out so-called "climatologists" when they hyperventilate about "global warming" when it's 65 in July.

Real science is having the ability to predict, quantify and test one's results. After decades of research and millions and millions spent, seismology is no closer to a real understanding of earthquakes as medieval astronomers were to understanding black holes. I'm not saying we shouldn't study earthquakes but both the public and seismology community need to understand that [a] We can't and maybe never will be able to predict earthquakes SO stop pretending you can [b] Preparation is more important than prediction.

Until seismologists can really predict earthquakes, please stay away from the TV cameras. Do your research, publish your papers, maybe spend a little less of the public's money while you're at it. Once you really know what's going on, THEN let us know.