Why the surge in motorcycle deaths? Federally funded L.A. study seeks answers

The first major study of motorcycle crashes in nearly 30 years is underway in Los Angeles, as researchers attempt to pinpoint why resultant fatalities have soared over the last decade to constitute 14% of all roadway deaths, despite the fact that motorcycles account for less than 1% of vehicle miles traveled.

There are plenty of theories to explain the increase: The number of motorcycles on the road increased from 3.9 million in 1998 to 7.1 million in 2007; motorcycles are more powerful than they  used to be; riders are older, now averaging 41 years of age; and many states have repealed their helmet laws.

But there are no clear answers.

The last in-depth investigation of motorcycle crashes in the U.S. — the Hurt study — was conducted through USC and released in 1981. Efforts to update that information have been stymied by funding issues.
Earlier this month, a new study was greenlighted by the U.S. Department of Transportation, but it’s a scaled-down version of what was originally planned, and a leading industry-backed safety group says the sample size will be too small to properly resolve the questions.

The National Transportation Safety Board originally recommended that the study include a sample size of 900 to 1,200 crashes. The Hurt study examined 900 crashes. But researchers at Oklahoma State University, tapped to conduct the new study, said use of such a large sample would cost $10 million to $12 million, far exceeding the federal government’s $4.2-million estimate.

As of Oct. 1, the study was moving forward with a sample size of 300 crashes.

“The motorcycle crash rate for injuries and deaths has increased every year for the past 10 years, so it was critical to get this study underway,” said Cathy St. Denis, spokeswoman for the Federal Highway Administration. "It will be one of the most comprehensive studies to be done in years and will help prevent future crashes."

The $3.1-million study includes $2 million from the highway reauthorization bill, $500,000 from the National Highway Traffic and Safety Administration, $500,000 from individual states and $100,000 from the American Motorcyclist Assn.

The Motorcycle Safety Foundation, a nonprofit group that develops rider training courses used by most states and is funded by major manufacturers such as Honda and Harley-Davidson, had offered $2.8 million in 2007 for a study if it included a sample size of 900 crashes.

The group refused to contribute to the scaled-down study because it “will not provide adequate sampling to achieve appropriate statistical significance and may not provide new insights," the organization said in a statement Tuesday. “This limited study will likely lend only a minimal degree of validation to the major, already known contributing motorcycle crash factors.”

There are about 100,000 motorcycle crashes in the U.S. each year, 5,290 of which resulted in death in 2008, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. According to the Motorcycle Safety Foundation, which draws heavily on findings from the 1981 Hurt study, major crash factors include rider error, such as overbraking and running wide in a curve; and alcohol involvement.

So far, data from 53 crashes have been gathered as part of the study’s pilot, which kicked off in L.A. last December to test data collection procedures and which concluded earlier this year. That crash data will be included in the official study of 300 crashes, which is also taking place in Los Angeles.

Preliminary results from the study will be available in a year, according to Oklahoma State’s Alan Tree. Final results won’t be available until at least 2013.

-- Susan Carpenter

Photo: Los Angeles Times

Comments

[david machado]

I reccomend that screen name " the big picture" change it to "Tunnel Vision Idiots.com

[david machado]

I reccomend that screen name " the big picture" change it to "Tunnel Vision Idiots.com

[lilmamaluvs2ride]

To PACO (Oct 15): You hit the nail on the head!!! To JohnMarco & Harry (Oct 15): You are so right! My husband, & I as well, are now victims of morning rush hour road rage & negligence by a vehicle driver not paying attention!! My husband was cut off, clipped (front tire hit). As an experienced rider of 30+ years, on a Yamaha Roadstar, he was not riding crazy or splitting lanes. He has taken several safety courses, we belonged to 2 organized motorcycle groups,I ride with him on the weekends & to functions. He did not want me to ride alone because of all the 'crazies out there'. He became a victim of road rage when he swerved out of the flow of traffic to regain control, yelled at the driver who hit him AND witnesses state that there is a very real possibility that that very same driver swerved again & hit him with the side mirror...all at 20 MPH. Being 6'4", 300 lbs, he hit the ground hard. He now lies in a semi-comatose state in a long term acute care facility. He does open his eyes & track you, he is very aware that something happened. He shows emotion & feels pain. Only movement is his left hand. Despite having a severe brain injury, the spine & brain stem are intact. Only fracture was to right clavicle & head. But he is still considered in a coma, has no control over bodily functions. Doctors give me conflicting prognosis'...some have total faith/hope in recovery, others not. The driver who caused this got away! That person is responsible for destroying not only my husband's health/welfare...but mine, our friends & our families. My life is on hold right now...am unable to work, spend each & every day at the hospital. I cannot change what happened, we will never fully know the extent of what happened that day. God will take care of the person who did this someday! God has a plan for my husband & I...or he wouldn't be here today. You see, he did die that day, not the full coverage helmet or the leathers protected him! Two 'Freeway Angels' stopped, blocked off the lanes & administered CPR before CHP/fire or ambulance got there. So I have to keep the faith. I will never stop loving my husband or fighting for the best possible medical care for him. Check out: donatetorory.com

[Fixed Gear]

What do you think the weight of the average car was 10 years ago? What do you think it is today, with all the HUGE SUV's on the road? Motorcycle -Vs- Honda civic = possible death. Motorcycle -Vs- Ford Expedition = certain death. I think motorcycles are cool. But I'll NEVER own one. I'm not betting my LIFE that every driver out there is going to see me...

[Bob Veronese]

I think in the last 18 months many more people started riding a motorcycle or scooter to work than before. Most did not have experience riding in traffic and lane spliters are looking for trouble. The bikes now are so fast there should be restrictions on size for under 18 at least like in europe. We are forced to wear a helmit in Calif. because we have no freedom here but deaths are still up? Next we could have flashing lights on our heads next. Maybe it has something to do with all the unlicensed illegals we have here? The traffic in LA and Orange county is too dangerous for me to ride to work.

[sinuk]

You are kidding- federal money to research this? The reason seems obvious, the motorcyclists weave in and out of traffic so with no regard for other vehicles. I have leaved in many places and have NEVER seen this allowed. I am shocked that they do this and frankly am surprised there are not more deaths.

But since we are fighting two wars, in a recession, with 10% unemployment- it seems sensible to spend money on research that seems obvious if some common sense was applied.

[David]

Cell phone users/texters are a BIG part of it. I'm amused at idiots who continue to do it, because they've never crashed.

[David]

Gee, Ken Neely, we've never heard the organ donor reference before!

I know plenty of people who have ridden for 25+ years without a problem. Just as with pitbulls, it usually comes down to the owner. It's not the breed of dog or the motorcycle.

[Susan]

Just FYI, When I am driving on the freeway I am watching the lanes next to me and ahead of me for the most part to watch for idiots making sudden maneuvers like changing lanes without signaling. While I check behind me as well (try to make sure the person behind me is not tailgating me) I do not have time to look around for the lane splitting motorcyclist. It does not matter how loud they are, I will not hear them until they are next to me car. Noise does not travel ahead of you as much as you may think.

When I do see a responsible motorcyclists I will slow up and give them space to move or ride in comfort. I have seen other cars get way too close to motorcyclists. In general too many people tailgate or lane swap at the very last second - it screws things up for all other drivers. Speeding does not help either.

Note also that there is an MSF safety course. Recommend that all motorcyclists take a course BEFORE getting on the road. Also some beginners will delay going for their license (riding on a learners permit) Limit that time frame to 6 months with the course requirement.