Italy quake prediction makes waves in California seismology circles

A little over a week ago, a scientist little known in earthquake circles made a bold prediction of a destructive earthquake around the small town of Sulmona, Italy, based on readings of radon gas. Giampaolo Giuliani went so far as to tell the mayor of Sulmona that it would strike within the next 24 hours. The deadline passed, and nothing happened.

Then, early Tuesday, a magnitude 6.3 earthquake struck about 35 miles away, near the town of L’aquila, sparking a controversy in Italy and around the world about whether Guiliani actually predicted the temblor. That prediction is the latest twist in the maddening scientific quest to predict earthquakes.

The history of earthquake prediction is littered with a lot of discarded ideas, including, many scientists say, the radon theory. Guiliani said he was collecting samples of radon gases escaping from the earth’s crust in the area around the quake. He detected unusual readings and concluded that a big quake was imminent.

Using radon gas to predict quakes was popular in California in the late 1970s. Researchers at USC, Cal Tech and elsewhere believed changes in the gas levels were a precursor of quakes. In 1979, researchers found gas irregularities before two significant quakes, in Malibu and Big Bear. But the radon method began to lose steam because it could not reliably predict quakes.

Susan Hough, scientist in charge at the U.S. Geological Survey in Pasadena, who is finishing a book on earthquake prediction, said she hadn’t heard of Guiliani, but she wasn’t surprised that someone was claiming to have predicted the L’aquila quake.

“If you want predictions, they’re out there all the time,” Hough said. “It amazes me all the time that earthquakes happen that aren’t predicted because scientists and amateurs, everybody’s playing the game.”

-- Jia-Rui Chong

Comments

[lisa w]

Bitter scientist discredits the guy who made the ACCURATE prediction.
PRICELESS!

[Geo]

Southern Californians can have fun looking at many geophysical possible precursors for earthquakes at http://www.electricquakes.org and see if they see a correlation between those sensors and quakes in southern California or around the world.
The site includes variations in earth's rotation (Length of Day charts), magnetic readings from Fresno, tidal forces, ionization charts and solar wind bursts hitting the planet alongside current earthquake maps.

Designed to put hard to find, dispersed, real time scientific readings in front of regular people, electricquakes offers those with an interest an easy way to follow earth changes and research possible correlations with earthquakes.

[timblor]

This "prediction" was nowhere near accurate. A true prediction would predict time, place, and magnitude. As the article points out, Mr. Guiliani did none of this. He missed his deadline (by a week) and place (by 35 miles) and as far as I can tell, did not specify a magnitude. A real scientist would not be demanding an apology from the Italian government, but going back to the drawing board to see what assumptions in their hypothesis were wrong and reassessing the data. Despite some people's belief that Mr. Guiliani is the victim of a group of disgruntled scientists, the fact is that there was nothing that approached the standard of an earthquake prediction as recognized by the scientific community.

[Quaker]

The Hack from Pasadena,(who is selling a book),and timblor above are both tasting "Sour Grapes"
This guy said it was coming,he warned as many people as he could,even driving the streets with loud speakers.
And it came.......Many lost their lives.
I am certain some people took heed and relocated,only to return to flattened houses and crumbled buildings.
Guiliani's fore warnings "Saved Lives"
How many lives has Susan Hack & timblor saved?
This man went out on a limb to save as many lives as possible and now you two have only negative things to say about him.
What were you two doing when he was doing his best to get the word out? Watching "American Idol","Dancing With The Stars" or a "Lakers Game"?

[Doubtless]

So, they know that they are living on a shaky land.
Why they didn't make their houses stronger?
Because they wanted to maintain the traditional theme of their old cities.
Go to hell all stupid traditions.

[John V]

Those who take the prediction at face value should remember that there has already been a long campaign measuring radon, and the anomalies did not foretell earthquakes. One probably-lucky hit off by weeks and 30 miles does not suddenly make radon a reliable tool.

[Giorgio Malagutti]

Just to make things clear, Giuliani is not a scientist, he is a technical guy who has been studying these phenomena for over 20 years in a state facility. He saw a peak in Radon 4 hours before the quake, he called his family at home and told them to spend the night out in the street, and remain awake. The quake hit at 3 AM. His family is alive, many others died that night. Of course you can think he was just lucky, but you don't keep your family awake out in the street in the middle of the night unless you are seriously concerned and in good faith.

[T. Harinarayana]

It is known historically that "some" predictions are real and found to be correct. But some don't. Similarly, no one technique is reliable to predict an earthquake.

Like monsoon prediction, we need to analyse multi-parametric data before making prediction. The well recognsed parameters are hypocentre nucleation, Anomalous Radon emissions, Abnormal changes in EM fields, groundwater fluctuations etc., apart from other parameters like GPS and gravity field ...

Perhaps we need to increase the multiparametric observatories in all the seismogenic zones around the world with the data viewed online by all the scientists.

We need large funding for such global network and require support from UN and developed countries...

---Hari