Will traffic still stink in 2009?

Last week I looked at some of the big transportation stories of 2008, overlooking (unfortunately) one of the most obvious stories: for about the googly-thousandth straight year, traffic still was bad in Southern California, although perhaps a tad better than usual thanks to the stinky economy.

Now that we're firmly in 2009, I thought it might be good to look ahead to stories I'll be following this year. And, yes, traffic will still likely be bad ...

1. Will the Federal Railroad Administration grant permission to Metrolink to install automatic train stop devices on its tracks. And, if so, will Metrolink install the devices quickly and in such a way that they could prevent collisions or at least slow trains down? The FRA sounds as if it's leaning toward approval, but the agency has also said that it believes a more advanced technology is the better safety solution.

2. Will the board of directors of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority vote to launch the necessary environmental studies needed to build the subway? This could happen as soon as this month's board meeting, which is scheduled for Jan. 22.

3. Will gas prices reprise last year's performance and rise to $4 a gallon for regular this spring and summer? The price of gas has ticked up a few cents in the last month, but you have to wonder if the oil companies last year finally learned that there is a price at which people will stop driving.

4. Speaking of the MTA, it needs to find a new chief executive, with Roger Snoble having announced his impending retirement last month. Look for the agency -- one of the nation's largest -- to seek out candidates who have overseen large construction efforts (the subway is just one of many projects the MTA wants to build in the next decade with new sales tax money) and have a background in labor relations, a must since the MTA has more than 9,000 employees.

5. What will the tolls be like for Los Angeles County's upcoming congestion pricing experiment on the 10 and 110 freeways? The MTA will likely be announcing its toll proposals this spring.

6. How will the Expo Line light rail project get from Culver City to Santa Monica? The Expo Line Construction Authority is slated to announce its preferred route in the early part of the year and a decision to put the rail line through an existing rail right-of-way through West Los Angeles will spark a big debate over the appropriateness of that route and whether rails should go across, over or under busy Westside streets.

6B. Of course, before the Expo Line goes beyond Culver City, the California Public Utilities Commission must rule on how the first phase of the project is going to be built near two schools in South Los Angeles. That decision should come at the commission's meeting at the end of this month.

7. Will any local transportation projects be funded by President-elect Barack Obama's infrastructure spending plan (assuming Congress approves it)? Obama is saying he's looking for ready-to-build projects, but what about projects in the pipeline that are a year or two out from construction? Will they qualify?

8. How will the MTA board spend the Measure R sales tax money once it begins flowing in July? Will the Gold Line Foothill Extension be the first project built?

9. Will widening of the 405 Freeway between the 90 and 10 freeways on the Westside be complete in 2009? Most of the work is supposed to be done this year, according to Caltrans.

10. Will deaths from vehicular accidents go down? Federal statistics show that the number of deaths in the U.S. in 2007 ('08 numbers haven't been released yet) was the lowest it had been since 1994, but it's hardly reason to celebrate with 41,059 deaths. Motorcycle deaths, however, climbed steeply last year.

-- Steve Hymon

Comments

[alex]

For the near future, gas prices are very likely to stay well below the highs we have seen this last year for two reasons. One, Bush isn't in the White House to protect the oil companies. Two, the OPEC nations have said publicly that they don't want the price to go that high again because it made alternative energy sources price competitive and that's bad for their long term business. Unfortunatley, the OPEC nations have also said that the current price is too low. My guess is that the price at the pump will stay low enough for long enough that the state will probably raise the taxes on it.

[Damien Newton]

My bets...

1) yes
2) yes
3) yes
4) MTA is going to hire Damien Goodmon
5) The whole program is so goofy anyway it won't really matter. I've never seen a congestion pricing plan that would actually increase capacity before this beut from LACMTA
6) I don't know the construction authority well enough to comment for sure on their plans, but I do think that CPUC is going to go with the pedestrian bridges. Call me a cynic, but I've always thought ped. bridges were a waste of money. People just don't use them.
7) Obama is going to stick to his guns on his 6 month timeline and we're going to see a lot of resurfacing projects getting funded. For those of us wanting change, we're going to have to wait until Transportation Trust Fund reauthorization.
8) That would be ironic if the Gold Line Foothill is the first one built since that's where a lot of the political opposition came. I bet the first project is somewhere else. Maybe Wilshire bus-only lane.
9) No
10) No

[Spokker]

Traffic will never, ever let up. It doesn't matter how many mass transit projects you build. There will always be traffic. The point is to allow people to have a choice between the traffic and mass transit, and to allow those who are unwilling or unable to drive a kind of mobility afforded to those who can afford personal automobiles.