Why the Prop. 8 polls were so wrong

Prop. 8 passed even though two major polls before the Nov. 4 election showed it to be failing. What's the deal? Did some people who planned to vote "yes" tell pollsters they were going to vote "no"? Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll, offers his view:

First, polls are a snapshot in time and the trend of the pre-election polls clearly showed the "no" side's advantage declining in the final weeks. Double-digit leads held by the "no" side in the pre-television advertising stages of the campaign declined precipitously as the TV ad campaigns hit in mid- to late September. This suggests that the "yes" campaign advertising was having its effect. This drift in voter preferences away from the "no" side must have continued into and through the final weekend of the election as the churches and various religious groups made their pitches to rally the support of their congregations for a "yes" vote. There is evidence that their efforts succeeded. When comparing the findings from the Field Poll's final pre-election survey to the Edison Media Research exit poll of voters, the biggest differences related to the turnout and preferences of frequent churchgoers and Catholics.

More from another pollster: "The bottom line is the public, the voters, are very closely divided on same-sex marriage today," said Mark Baldassare, president of the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California. "And when all was said and done, you just have to say the 'yes' side was just a little bit more persuasive than the 'no' side."

--Shelby Grad

Photo credit: Los Angeles Times

Comments

[Drew]

I guess when you lie and push scare tactics you can win.

Worked for Bush in 2000 and 2004.

Worked for Yes on 8 in 2008.

[Jim L]

Twice now Californians have voted to say "Marriage" not a civil union, is defined as between a man and a woman. And yet each time those losing have sought to overturn the majority through the courts and physical intimidation. Doesn't that mean that the supporters of every losing candidate in every political race in the state have the right to do the same thing. Isn't that what Hitler's Fascist did in 1932? Looks like the losers in California are a bunch of fascist. Just so you don't htink you can label me, I voted for Obama and support Prop. 8

[Julia]

The ads did not have a last minute effect on the voters. Evangelicals and black people were polled based upon their numbers in previous elections and as a part of the larger population. Obviously, their 'yes' votes would not show up in the polls in greater numbers than their population in the state even though most of them could be counted on voting 'yes' on Prop 8.

[Dennis]

It is not Californian to let outside interest groups come and scare half the population into voting thier way based on their beliefs.

I could care less about marriage, it's about equal rights, beneficiary rights, the right to pull or not pull the plug on my beloved one in the hospital for example.

What went wrong on Tuesday November 4th? Everyone I know (90% of them heterosexuals) at work, in my apartment building said they were voting NO, becuase they felt deep inside that it is wrong.

Did people lie? or did No supporters rested on their laurels thinking it would be defeated. Was it the "F" word?

[Jerry in LA]

For weeks after the California Supreme Court's decision supporting same sex marriage, the no on 8 side was winning. What happened?

The No on 8 partisans waged an iineffective campaign, particular the TV ads. Remember the first ad? The female bride who keeps running into obstacles and never quite meets her male groom at the altar. To this day, most Californians don't now that the commercial was intended to support same sex marriage. Then we had an ad with Japanese Americans in internment camps, and some history about the anti-miscegenation laws, and still not a single mention of same sex marriage. Did it ever occurr to the No on 8 strategists that completely failing to argue that same sex marriage specifically was worth legal protection would play directly into the "parade of horribles" campaign of the Yes on 8 crowd?

[Nathan O.]

Homosexuality, however modern you think our society is, is still a controversial subject. Maybe so controversial that maybe pollers actually lied when asked for their decision on Prop 8. Typical voters most likely lied to favor the popular answer.

[Patrick]

Wow, it only took two comments to invoke Hitler and fascism. Hey Jim L. you're slacking off. See if you can invoke Nazis on the first post next time alright?

[C. Mandzi]

"...I guess when push scare tactics you can [lose]..."

The scare tactics (of the No on 8 supportors) had a beneficial effect upon the vote - it allowed the Proposition to pass! Voters were absolutely scared - Scared that the No on 8 crowd would continue to turn the natural law on its head.

[Bob]

I am so sick of the No on 8 people saying that we lied and used scare tactics! We had a demonstration in front of our church last Sunday and quite a few of them were downright nasty and viscious. The sheriff deputies were kept busy, even using horses for crowd control.

[Bob]

I am so sick of the No on 8 people saying that we lied and used scare tactics! We had a demonstration in front of our church last Sunday and quite a few of them were downright nasty and viscious. The sheriff deputies were kept busy, even using horses for crowd control.

[Madeline]

Wow, Jim L, your grasp of German history is dreadful. Hitler was elected by popular vote. Sorry, but you can check any history book you like. I think I might even have the percentages somewhere... Hah! Here we go! Let's see... Appointed Chancellor in January 1933 - not an elected position. Election called, and... Ah ha! March, 1933, elected President, running against two other candidates (who split the remained roughly equally), 43.9% of the vote. Considered the clear winner. Didn't make him a good guy, as history has shown.

(Of course, that was against a background of appeals through religious institutions, near-hysterical calls on German voters to protect their way of life - and, of course, physical intimidation. Sounds a little familiar, if far worse.)

No, if you want to compare anything to Hitler's regime, let's ask the question of whether the treatment of the Jews was fair. Because, you see, at first Hitler's policies of "racial purification" had majority support. Did that make it right? I'm sure you can draw the rest of the connections.

Sadly, the reality is that it looked like the campaign just failed. It wasn't just that polls of African-American voters were weighted inaccurately - "No on Prop 8" campaigners also seem to have failed to reach out to them. So, next time (hopefully, of course, the courts will overturn this unconstitutional travesty and it won't be necessary), that's where the advertising dollars need to go.

[Mike]

Prove to me that being gay IS a choice.

[David]

It is ironic that, at the exact same moment that one specific minority celebrated their elevation to status as full citizens of this nation via the election of one of their own to the highest office in the land, that very same minority voted overwhelmingly to disenfranchise another oppressed and marginalized group! Shame! Yes, you know to whom I refer: So many African-Americans claim that God is against gays; yet, it is this very same God that has created these people in His image. Being gay has been proven to be genetic, not a choice; hence, it is a state of being directly given by God Himself. Therefore, gay and lesbian citizens deserve absolute full equal rights, including civil marriage. To do otherwise, is to oppress and discriminate. To borrow the oft quoted phrase: "Seperate is NOT equal!" Domestic partnerships don't = marriage. No religion is compelled to recognize gay marriage; however, under civil law, both gay and heterosexual unions should be treated EXACTLY the same! In closing, remember that many scholars believe that David and Johnathan in the Bible were in a gay relationship and God adored David; hence, there is direct Biblical proof that God loves gays!

[Jeremy]

Haterosexuals lied to the pollsters. They did it FIVE times in the last two weeks including two exit polls.

[Al Acanti]

Jim. Gay people were one group Hitler singled out for extermination. They were rounded up and placed in concentration camps and made to wear pink triangles instead of the star of David. So persecuting gay people was a fascist approach.

[Jeff]

To the crybabies who supported Prop 8 and now demand that gays and lesbians accept it, I have this to say:

That will never happen because you have reduced the civil rights of a significant number of Californians, and that is simply unacceptable.

It is your side which made thousands of gay and lesbian marriages illegal, including many with kids. How would you like it if your marriage was declared
illegal and you had to tell your kids you are no longer married?

Civil marriage is not an issue for the churches to decide. There is a little something called Separation of Church and State to consider.

We will fight on in the courts and, if necessary, the ballot box until Prop 8 is overturned. If, in the process, the Mormon Church and other supporters of
this atrocity feel our anger, in the immortal words of Harry S Truman, if you cant stand the heat, stay out of the kitchen.

Time is on our side. Public support for gays and lesbians to marry is steadily growing. No one even argues about civil unions anymore, or do they?

Is the next move by Prop 8 supporters to take away the rights of gays and lesbians to be foster parents or adopt kids as they have done in other states?

Prop 8 supporters like to talk about where this will end, but we are entitled to ask: where do you want it to end? Do you want to end laws banning discrimination in employment against gays and lesbians? Do you want to return to the 1950s when gays and lesbians faced blackmailers without any means of recourse?

NEVER!

[MickeyC]

The simple fact is that this was a revision of the Constitution as soon as the supreme court made same sex marriage legal and must be found to be such if the court doesn't want to be superfluous. Fortunately for minorities, this country isn't run by mob rule as the Proposition 8 supporters would like. The only thing the fools who voted in favor of this amendment did, was guarantee millions of dollars in taxpayer funds will be used in the courts now to fight this out. Eventually same sex marriage will be the laws of the land and all that money wasted. Of course, it also guaranteed that same sex marriage will now be discussed in most schools because ti will remain a current event. Proposition 8 supporters don't seem to realize that hate and prejudice have a high price tag these days which, sadly, everyone will get stuck paying.

[tom]

It would appear that, yet again, history has taught the voters nothing.

What has happened with Prop 8 could be termed the the tyranny of the majority. When basic human rights are voted on by the "people", a minority invariably looses. Whether it is slavery, suffrage, or miscegenation, if a simple majority of the population always decided such matters we would still be in the stone age.

The legislature, the judiciary, and the executive branch of California government have voiced their opinion that marriage is human right afforded to all couples, gay or straight.

Unfortunately, due to the cessation of the separation of church and state, religious groups have, through the usual scare tactics of fear and deception (most recently used to usher in 8 years of appallingly incompetent Federal government), have succeeded in persuading a largely fearful and ignorant population that hell and damnation will reign down on their children if these rights are not denied.

The fears of a cowed, scared, and deceived electorate cannot be allowed to strip away the rights of a minority that the Supreme Court has afforded them; that the Legislature has twice voted to give them; and that the Governor of the state has also unequivocally endorsed.

We can only hope that the Judiciary is once again prepared to rule in favor of an oppressed minority as it has so often in the past of this great state of California.

[ROCK KENDALL, ESQ.]

THIS IS WHAT HITLER SAID REGARDING THE LAW AND EQUALITY: "The law cannot be allowed to lead to the granting of equality...." Adolph Hitler. SOURCE:
J. Noakes & G. Pridham, "Documents on Nazism" (1975) quoted at page 220 of "Law Makers, Law Breakers and Uncommon Trials" (2007) by Robert Aitken and Marilyn Aitken, American Bar Association.

Rock O. Kendall, Esq.