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Conflicting poll results on Prop. 4

October 24, 2008 |  2:02 pm

Two newly-released polls disagree about the fate of Prop. 4, the parental notification initiative on abortion. A survey conducted for the Knights of Columbus by the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion had Prop. 4 leading 52% to 33% among likely voters surveyed between Sept. 28 and Oct. 5.

The Public Policy Institute of California, meanwhile, released a poll of its own which indicates the parental notification measure is supported by 46% of voters, opposed by 44%, and that 10% still don’t know how they'll vote. The group said Proposition 8, a constitutional amendment to end same-sex marriage in California, is losing among likely voters 52% to 44%.

The telephone survey conducted Oct. 12-19 found that concern about the economy is the biggest issue on voters minds.

More questions: Is the state headed in the right direction? Just 20% of likely voters say yes, a decline of 21 points since September 2007. Nearly eight in 10 think the state is in a serious (39%), moderate (30%) or mild (9%) recession, according to Mark Baldassare, president and chief executive of the institute.

Despite a record-setting budget impasse, the approval ratings of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (47%) and the state legislature (22%) rose among likely voters since the last poll was done by the institute.

But, the president's approval rating dropped to 20%, and Congress' rating hit a new low of 18% among likely voters, the institute found.

"The task all our elected officials face is to restore confidence in government," Baldassare says. "Californians are desperate for change, eager for new leadership, and very low on confidence."

-- Patrick McGreevy