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Conflicting poll results on Prop. 4

Two newly-released polls disagree about the fate of Prop. 4, the parental notification initiative on abortion. A survey conducted for the Knights of Columbus by the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion had Prop. 4 leading 52% to 33% among likely voters surveyed between Sept. 28 and Oct. 5.

The Public Policy Institute of California, meanwhile, released a poll of its own which indicates the parental notification measure is supported by 46% of voters, opposed by 44%, and that 10% still don’t know how they'll vote. The group said Proposition 8, a constitutional amendment to end same-sex marriage in California, is losing among likely voters 52% to 44%.

The telephone survey conducted Oct. 12-19 found that concern about the economy is the biggest issue on voters minds.

More questions: Is the state headed in the right direction? Just 20% of likely voters say yes, a decline of 21 points since September 2007. Nearly eight in 10 think the state is in a serious (39%), moderate (30%) or mild (9%) recession, according to Mark Baldassare, president and chief executive of the institute.

Despite a record-setting budget impasse, the approval ratings of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (47%) and the state legislature (22%) rose among likely voters since the last poll was done by the institute.

But, the president's approval rating dropped to 20%, and Congress' rating hit a new low of 18% among likely voters, the institute found.

"The task all our elected officials face is to restore confidence in government," Baldassare says. "Californians are desperate for change, eager for new leadership, and very low on confidence."

-- Patrick McGreevy


Comments () | Archives (19)

Please vote yes on prop 4. Whether you think abortion should be legal or not- this will not prevent girls from obtaining an abortion if they really are trying to seek one but it gives parents an opportunity to let them know other resources that are available, and lets them have the opportunity to explain to them how to avoid unwanted pregnancy in the future.

It gives parents the ability to know, so if the minor suffers complications from abortion in the middle of the night, they do not stay in their rooms and potentially die because they couldn't go to the emergency room because mom and dad would find out about the abortion. Those kids are in too deep. We should not let them get in that deep.

30 states have parental notification laws and there has been no increase in "back alley" abortions, and teen pregnancy and STD rates have gone down. These teens are using contraceptives more responsibly, simply because if they do get pregnant they will have to fess up to mom and dad.

It's a well written law with protections for girls who fear abuse from parents.

It's a law partially intended to stop child predators- if your child has to tell you she's aborting, and you can ask who the father is, they are more likely to report if they are being abused and were too embarrassed to tell you.

Prop 4 is good for everyone. Vote yes on prop 4.

Great points Pam, and you may have just gotten my yes vote on Prop 4.

Please vote no on prop 4, it is dangerous.

Girls who go to doctors seeking abortions are already counseled to talk to their parents. The girls who cannot talk to their parents are in danger and forcing them to go to court will not help them.

This article: http://www.mercurynews.com/opinion/ci_10816809, written by someone with firsthand experience, talks about the danger a girl is in who has been raped by a family member.

As a father of 2 girls, I hope I can raise them with enough love and understanding that they'll want to talk to me first if they get in this kind of trouble. My objection to this law is not about my own family, it is about girls in bad families, with abusive parents. These girls need protection *from* their families, they don't need to be forced into direct conflict with them at such a difficult time.

Please vote no on prop 4. It is very dangerous to our teens!

Obviously the best case scenario for everyone is for teens to communicate with their parents about an abortion. But, the truth is not all teens can go to their parents and talk about abortion openly. There are teens that live in homes where they may be abused or kicked out for telling their parents something like that. Someone who is pregnant and stressed out as it does not need that added fear. Teens who are scared and pregnant may panic and seek back alley abortions(contrary to what Pam said above... There are no numbers to support back alley abortions have gone down. That is why its a "back alley" abortion) or even consider suicide to keep it from their parents. The best way to not have to deal with any of this is to teach or teens about safe sex and birth control and abstinence before they get themselves into these positions. I'd say its a little bit to late to educate someone about preventing pregnancies after they are already pregnant. Thanks

Keep our teens safe! VOTE NO ON PROP 4!

Prop 4 is the latest prop that tries to make it more difficult for a teenage girl to get an abortion. This is the third time it has been on the ballot in 3 consecutive elections. Whats most disturbing about this prop is that they are trying to link it to sexual predators. Im sure many of you have seen the signs "Yes on Prop 4, stop sexual predators". If this law were to pass it just shows how foolish the average california voter is. After 3 consecutive elections the same legislation has been voted against, why now does it look like its going to pass? Probably because people dont realise what they are voting for because of this bous, dispicable, fake attempt to link it to sexual predators.

No on 4! and we should also ban putting the same prop up every single election until it passes.

Tyler is inaccurate- there are stats on back alley abortion numbers via # of complications. When complications from back alley abortions go down significantly, so do back alley abortions.

There are built in protections for girls with abusive households- within 3 days they can get approval to get the abortion with no notification. The same day they can get approval to tell any adult relative (even an 28 yr old first cousin). If you think your parents will hit you, withhold food or kick you out you can get around telling them. That makes this a null and void point.

These laws are actively being used in 30 states. The stats are there. Even with planned parenthoods own numbers, teen STDS and pregancy rates are going down as teens better utilize condoms and other contraceptives as a direct result of parental notification laws. Check out the charts, the 13 states with the lowest rates of teen pregnancy and lowest rates of STDS among teens are ones with true parental notification laws like the one we are trying to pass in California.

Do your research people. The statistics are there. So far there have been ZERO negatives and a whole lot of positives to these laws.

As a bonus, the fact remains that girls suffer complications from "safe and legal" abortions. Rather than try to tough it out, if Mom & Dad already know she had an abortion there is no reason not to have them take you to the E.R., whereas if you've hidden not only an unexpected pregnancy but an abortion on top of it, there is ample reason for these teens to try and tough it out. That is exactly the type of thing that leads to abortion death.

this law was very carefully written and is piggybacking on proven successful laws from other states. Research and don't vote on the emotional arguement of girls in dangerous households- because protections are there for that and many people ignore that.

Please vote yes on PROP 4 and YES on PROP 8.

Allowing teens to do sometrhing without parental ascent and input is putting someone else in charge of your child...don't allow that to happen. NOW and other such organizations use FEAR tactics to get you to vote in their PRO-CHOICE direction. Really, do what is best for the child and the parent...vote yes on PROP 4.

Please vote yes of PROP 8

Do you want the great state of California to be recognized as the Sodom & Gahmorra of the Bible. Traditional marraige ever since Adam & Eve is what pleases God and is what has been recognized by the entire world as that which is right...please vote yes on PROP 8 or the gay/lesbian agenda and education of your children will start in the lowest grades to teach them the terrible lifestyle of homosexuals and the lie that it is OK.

I'm against Prop 4, for the reasons many have already cited.

@ Pastor Dave -

In regards to Prop 4 --

You assume that you know what is best for your child. I do not doubt that you have the best of intentions, but I believe that many parents fail in doing what is actually best for them.

In regards to Prop 8 --

You are free to believe whatever you choose, and I will support your right to do so, however mistaken I believe you to be. And boy, do I think you are mistaken. You quote the Bible to discriminate, and yet, the God of your Bible is also a God of love... Surely you know this? I also find it difficult to believe that God will forgive adulterers, thieves, and murderers... but not people who do nothing wrong other than to love a person of a gender that you deem inappropriate.

Besides, same-sex couplings occur naturally in the animal kingdom. If you believe that what separates animals and humans is our ability to think and make choices, then the only conclusion one can come to is that what the animals are doing is not through their own willful "rebellions" against God, but what God made them to be, and what God intended them to do.

I am not gay/lesbian, by the way, nor do I have any close personal friends who are so, so there's no reason for me to be taking the stance I am, other than that I believe to do otherwise is close-minded and discriminatory, and that your particular use of harsh and judgmental language ("Terrible lifestyle"? "Lie"?) signifies a conceited and ignorant self-righteousness that I find revolting. You degrade the humanity of another person, and yet, call yourself a righteous believer in that God of love.

Furthermore, I do not believe it is the government's -- let alone your -- right to legislate. And this is what irritates me about your post. What makes you believe that you, of all people, is even qualified to interpret God's word -- as interpreted, in turn, by whoever transcribed God's word into the Bible -- and to know what God intended this world to be like? I hear plenty of people say that no one can truly understand God's will... Are you saying you're better at that than everyone else, including the Christians who read the same Bible as you do, and come to a different conclusion than you do regarding homosexuality?

One last thing: If the "entire world" believed that traditional marriage were right, then there wouldn't be this Proposition now, would there?

P.S. @ Pastor Dave --

I believe the one with an agenda is you; you are asking people to entertain your views on Prop 8 when this was actually an article on Prop 4.

It's understandable that people would want to protect teenage girls from an abusive situation that could come up by an unwanted pregnancy, but the answer is not murdering an innocent child. That is only a temporary "fix" to a deeper issue. If a child (teenager) is in an abusive home she needs to be removed from that sitution. Abortion does not solve anything, and what about the emotional scaring that happens to that young girl as she goes through life knowing she aborted an innocent baby.

You can't watch the videos of an ultrasound and honestly tell yourself that baby is a "non-living fetus." He/she has a heartbeat, is growing, can swallow, "breath" amniotic fluid...thats more than what a plant does and everyone so crazy about saving the trees...who will protect the millons of babies being killed every year? Murder is not the answer to a girl in an abusive home! YES ON 4!

I voted Yes on prop 8. I have 2 young daughters and if they were to get pregnant now I would want the doctors to notify me first. Come on, how twisted is this world? A child under the age has to have permission from a parent before doing the following: tattoo, piercing, aspirin from a doctor in an emergency room. Now that is twisted.

Dodz... Good Argument! I think you are probably the only one in here that make the most sense! Thank you!!! :)

Hmmm... Its kinda funny what happened to me the other day.... You see i was at the mall and i passed by a shop where they had all sorts of piercings and earrings and things of that sort. I saw a girl probably within the age of 8 or 10 that wanted to get her ear pierced..... But the lady that was suppose to pierce the girls ear told her she had to have her legal guardian with her because of the fact she was not 18.... Why on earth do u have to be 18 or older to get your ear pierced without parental consent yet a girl can have an abortion without parental consent..... Seriously its dumb laws like these that people vote on that make me wonder how on earth we are all still alive.

YET PROP 4 STILL PASSED!.... You may say the teenage girl my be in danger by having to give parent notifications but if that's true and they feal threaten why is the teenage girl having unprotected sex in the first place when she shouldn't even be having sex at all protected or unprotected!... If she knows its wrong and still does it then why not punish her (by this I do not mean physically) I mean seriously if even the state of California punishes gang members, "graffiti artist" and even a teen that physically fights with another teen then why did the people vote so that their own teen can get away with something as horrible as an abortion... Witch by the way has been fatal in some cases... How would u like to receive a phone call from a hospital saying to go pick up the body of your dead daughter?... Parents don't really even have to punish their teen, they have it all coming as soon as the baby is born, maybe they can even learn to be more responsible.... As for the parents that don't know how to deal with something as big as this and there is physical abuse, theirs laws that prevent that from happening, so when people voted no on 4 they pretty much also said that law enforcers are not doing their job correctly or something because just like nothing holds anyone back from going to the store or supermarket nothing holds a teenage girl from telling an officer or an appropriate person that her parents are physically abusing them.... THINK!!! CALIFORNIA!!!.... THINK BEFORE U ACT! now in days it seems like people just do whatever pops in too their heads first! YOU HAVE TO THINK 3 STEPS AHEAD!

As for prop 8 look!... There is no doubt at all that the correct thing is a relationship between a women and a men. Who are people kidding when they say its OK for homosexuals to get married?... If its so natural then why wouldn't it be such a nice site to sit at the park and watch to people of the same sex holding hands or kissing?.... I am a Catholic witch means I'm christian and within the catholic community it is well known that god made a man and a women.... not a man and a man, and not a women and a women.... doesn't that tell Christians anything? Its only obvious that GOD frowns on homosexuality. God is love true, that's why he still loves homosexuals but he does not love what they are doing... God loves the person that sins be he does not love sins.... Another thing that's pretty stupid is that when u ask a parent "How would u like for son or daughter to be gay and marry a person of the same sex?" They all say they don't like the idea they cant even stand to picture it yet they almost approved teachers to teach your children that its OK and they should probably see both sides before they choose who they want to spend the rest of their life with.

I'M GLAD PROP 8 PASSED BUT I'M SURPRISED AT HOW MUCH PEOPLE VOTED NO.... Like I said, you have to think 3 steps ahead always.


@ Luck --

Thanks. =)

About Prop 8:

@ Javier Ochoa --

Those who voted No on either Prop 4 or Prop 8 HAVE thought it through, and I find it insulting that you should suggest otherwise... I am a 25 year-old graduate of UC Berkeley; I got a competitive GPA in a competitive major, while volunteering to tutor disadvantaged high school students, working in a lab, representing my school at national competitions on a collegiate sports team, and being on the school demo team for that same sport as well. Many of my friends also went to UC Berkeley, while others went to UC San Diego, UCLA, USC, Stanford, Harvard, and Yale. Some have gone on to med school, law school, or grad school, and many have had more brilliant college careers and job careers than I have. Many of us have traveled extensively or lived or studied abroad -- I myself have spent 6 months backpacking through Asia, and I've been to Spain and Morocco as well... I don't think anyone can accuse us of "not thinking" and "just doing whatever pops into our heads." We are intelligent, capable, well-rounded people who have worked hard to juggle and manage our lives so that we can be where we are today, to think things through as we commit to each thing that is important to us... With our busy lives and schedules, we cannot afford to randomly support things that we have not thought through. Even my Christian friends, who are familiar with the Bible and its teachings, and who evaluate the same information from the same sources you do, do not support Prop 8.

We HAVE thought this through, and, more importantly, we have followed our CONSCIENCES.

... May I ask what CRITICAL thinking you've done on this subject, beyond quoting the one line in the Bible which states that homosexuality is an abomination, or the tale of the destruction of Sodom and Gomorrah, or listening to whatever your religious leader might have TOLD you was right?

I'll tell you what I thought about, in addition to my previous post:

Although in an ideal world, I would be fine with same sex couples being given a different term other than marriage, so long as they were guaranteed the same rights and privileges, recognition, and freedom from discrimination, despite Prop 8's wording only about marriage, we all know that this is not just a debate about terminology... People moved to California just to vote on this proposition. A lot of the funding from both sides came from out-of-state. And look at your own post: You said that the "correct relationship" -- not marriage -- is between a man and a woman, which has nothing to do with Prop 8.

I object to Prop 8 because of people like you; I know this is not just about terminology. I object because, even if there were such an equivalent term, I think many people have difficulties with the whole "different but equal" thing, and will use a Yes on Prop 8 to justify their discrimination... Whatever term I may believe is most appropriate for a gay/lesbian union, my main concern is that of equality, and I think that a Yes on Prop 8 threatens that equality, not just legally, but in daily life among everyday people.

As for your definition of "correct relationships," how about this one? At one time, Americans believed that the "correct relationship" precluded a black person and a white person... The fact is, yours is merely a belief, not a truth. You cannot prove unequivocally to me that you are right, just as I cannot prove my opposite belief to you. But beliefs are not truths, and they are subject to change. I, for one, believe that now is a time for our views on homosexuality to change. I believe that you are behind the times if you cling to your religion and the Bible to justify your prejudices... The Bible is irrelevant in a lot of ways in this day and age, and for that, I will quote "The West Wing," as the writers have researched the Bible more than I have, and fictional or not, the character of President Bartlet makes many good points:

"I wanted to ask you a couple of questions while I had you here. I'm interested in selling my youngest daughter into slavery, as sanctioned in Exodus 21:7. She's a Georgetown sophomore, speaks fluent Italian, always cleared the table when it was her turn. What would a good price for her be? ... While thinking about that, can I ask another? My chief-of-staff, Leo McGarry, insists on working on the Sabbath. Exodus 35:2 clearly says he should be put to death. Am I morally obligated to kill him myself, or is it okay to call the police? ... Here's one that's really important, 'cause we've got a lot of sports fans in this town. Touching the skin of a dead pig makes one unclean, Leviticus 11:7. If they promise to wear gloves can, the Washington Redskins still play football? Can Notre Dame? Can West Point? Does the whole town really have to be together to stone my brother John for planting different crops side-by-side? Can I burn my mother in a small family gathering for wearing garments made from two different threads? Think about those questions, would you?"

Perhaps the people you associate with are disgusted at the thought of their children falling in love with, and marrying, people of the same gender, but I assure you, that's not the way everyone else in this world thinks... Remember the people who voted no on Prop 4? Sure, it passed, but at 52% to 48%, that's hardly a mandate. It BARELY passed.

PS @ Javier Ochoa --

If homosexual relationships really were so disgusting to everyone, could you explain to me why some men get so excited when they see (often drunk) girls making out with each other? Why, if the girls just get physically close to each other, doing perfectly non-sexual things, do some men imbue these actions with sexual meaning anyway, and then get excited? Why do some men seem to love watching woman-on-woman porn? Many of these porn stars are straight, which means that they are not acting these fantasies out for themselves... They are making this same-gender porn for somebody else, and that somebody is WILLING TO PAY HARD-EARNED CASH FOR IT.

So is it okay if it's purely a physical relationship, and does not involve any emotional investment?

Or is it okay only when it's between women?

@ Myca --

I don't believe Prop 4 is about whether or not abortion itself is right or legal; it is about whether or not a minor must inform her parents prior to getting an abortion.

I once came across a girl's question on Yahoo! Answers about the cost of aborting her dog's pregnancy. Rather than talking about how immoral it was to kill a dog, everyone gave very helpful answers. Yet, I know many people believe that it's wrong to have animals put down, unless they have a terminal illness or some such thing. So I'm curious to know whether you would fight so passionately for the rights of the unborn dog, because even unborn dogs are still dogs and should not be murdered in cold blood.

I myself do not believe that a fetus is automatically a human being, and I don't know where to draw the line when it changes. However, a fetus is not capable of surviving on its own outside the mother's body... And yet, we are willing to pull the switch on human beings in comas who are not capable of surviving without a ventilator or other medical machinery.

By your definition of fetus = human being, I would then contend that any person who smokes, drinks alcohol, does drugs, or eats unhealthily while pregnant is committing child abuse. The damage caused to the fetus/child of unhealthy eating by the mother may be irreparable: There are strong links to high blood sugar, increased diabetes, and being overweight in rats, with whom we share many biological systems -- important enough to be reported by BBC News and the Washington Post -- but it doesn't stop people from doing it anyway, and I don't see people getting all up in arms over it. Sometimes, I think people like to fight these humongous ideological wars, but they won't do the things that they themselves can, and definitely have a responsibility to do, in order to win the battles and live their beliefs in their ideologies.

@ Javier Ochoa --

What does a teen not feeling safe enough to inform her parents about the need for an abortion have to do with whether she feels safe enough to have sex with a person? Those are completely different issues.

There are many things preventing an abused person from coming forth to the appropriate authorities. For example, fear of the abuser; in effect, the person is under duress. This is so widely recognized that duress is an actual possible legal defense in court cases. There is also the fear of not being believed; how many rape victims do not report crimes for that exact reason? Then there is the Stockholm syndrome, whereby the abused/hostage identifies and/or becomes loyal to the abuser/kidnapper; how much more would this hold true if the abuser/kidnapper were the victim's own flesh and blood? I do not think that people who have not been in abusive relationships and/or households could possibly understand the trauma that some of these girls face.

While laws may describe behaviors that are unacceptable, and carry punishments for such actions, many people still commit crimes anyway. Turn on the TV -- murder, theft, vandalism -- day in, and day out. Personally, I think it's irresponsible to just say, "Well, we have laws for that, so we don't need to do anything else about it." That's just sitting on your haunches and letting things happen, not being proactive, and in the case of abuse, it's outright neglectful... Abuse requires us to be proactive, and to do everything within our power to stop the abuser, even if it means keeping them in the dark. Check out resources for domestic abuse victims; they advise formulating a plan of escape behind your abusive partner's back. This is no different.

I agree that the teen needs someone to look after her following the procedure, but I cannot agree that the parents must be notified.

@ whoever mentioned Sodom and Gomorrah --

I wonder if you know that "sodomy" is defined as "anal OR oral copulation with a member of the same OR opposite sex."

Which very well means that many heterosexual couples are sinners, too... Out of curiosity, how do you plan to take curb their immoral behavior?

Pastor Dave,
There are plenty of things that the bible says that you probably don't live by. For instance, do you have any daughters? and if so have u sold them into slavery? what price did u get for them? Do you work on sunday? because if you do then you are breaking the sabbath? I could continue but at this point I would suggest you think about the fact that their are other religions besides yours and the simple fact that a group of people dont agree with you isnt a reason for you to deny them basic rights. As to you Javier, ever hear of separation of church and state? Read about it sometime and come back when you aren't so closed minded and ignorant.


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