Can Tom Bradley teach a lesson to Barack Obama?

Barack Obama has been pulling ahead in the polls since the economic meltdown. But some pollsters are wondering aloud whether Obama might be hit by the same forces that faced former L.A. Mayor Tom Bradley more than two decades ago when he ran for governor of California. According to Marketwatch:

It's a question that comes up whenever anyone of African-American descent is a candidate for office, and this year is no exception: is the so-called "Bradley effect" going to play a role in the 2008 presidential race? Many pollsters doubt it, and think there's an even more fundamental question to be asked - whether there ever was such a phenomenon. If there was, they seriously doubt that with all the time that has passed since the late Tom Bradley lost a close gubernatorial race in California 26 years ago - despite being ahead in late polls - that it will play a significant role when the time comes to pull the lever for Barack Obama or John McCain Nov. 4.

What exactly is the "Bradley Effect"? According to Russ Britt: "The Bradley effect got its name when the African-American mayor of Los Angeles ran against Republican George Deukmejian in the state's gubernatorial race in 1982. In polls just prior to Election Day, Bradley was shown to have a comfortable lead of more than 5 percentage points. .... When the polls closed on Nov. 2 of that year, it was determined that Bradley lost to Deukmejian by less than 100,000 votes out of nearly 7.9 million ballots cast.

--Shelby Grad

Photo: Associated Press

Comments

[Bob Kholos]

I worked for Tom Bradley from 1969 to 1975, but I refused to work on the 82 campaign for governor, because the campaign structure was poor...to say the least.
The campaign hierarchy ran an elitist campaign.....figuring that TV spots and Tom's name recognition would win it.
Duekmajian ran a tough campaign....and won.
The Bradley "Effect" had something to do with the loss....but not the whole enchilada.
On the other hand, Barack Obama is running a superb ground game and the campaign is not overconfident.
The race will be closer than the polls say...but, state by state, Obama wins.