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Any chance California goes from blue to red?*

The polls have shown California to be Obama country for months. And the pundits are still predicting a sea of blue. But there has been a lot of chatter on the political blogs about an interesting finding on early voting in the state.

According to RedState.com, 104,000 Republicans have voted early or by mail-in ballot, compared with 105,000 Democrats.

The polls showed Barack Obama with an 18-point lead in California just a few days ago. The results thus far are the complete opposite. ... With nearly 210,000 people having voted, the Democrats have only a 1,000 vote advantage! If we take the liberty of assuming that all Republicans will vote for John McCain and all Democrats will vote for Obama, then the race is incredibly close.

At the Atlantic, Marc Ambinger offers this analysis: "Early voting is very popular in California, and Republicans tend to vote at higher rates than Democrats. More conservative areas of the state tend to vote early; Los Angeles County traditionally has the lowest early-voting rate. Don't know if the above statistics are correct, but if they are, they're not usual for that state... More importantly though, if Republicans believe that the party breakdown of who is voting early is indicative, then what do they think about what is going on in Nevada, Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, Indiana, and North Carolina?  Verdict: Nothingburger."

*Updated: The Real Clear Politics average of California polls shows Obama with a huge lead: 58.7% compared to 34% for McCain. The Rasmussen spread is even larger.

-- Shelby Grad

Photo: Associated Press

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Comments () | Archives (119)

RedState.com seems to foolishly assume that all those republicans will vote for McCain this year, when many of them are planning to vote democrat.

Dream on Republicans - Absentee ballots skew to elderly people - who are more likely to be Republican. California is blue and will probably always be blue. Also the assumption that all Republicans are voting with the party line after 8 years of Bush is hilarious.

How ridiculously silly. The polls sited do not claim that the number of registered Democrats is up by 18 points over the number of registered Republicans. The whole point of the large reported margin is that many registered Republicans will be voting for Obama. The news story might as well be "Looks like McCain will win California: There have already been 210,000 mail in votes, and if we assume all mail in votes go for McCain, he is off to an early lead!"

Sheesh!

There will be many surprises in November. The media think they have locked up the election - they have not....

California will never be a red state in a national election. This is republican ploy to confuse voters into thinking that McCain will win California and influence the uncommitted. It wont work Mr. McCain. We are not that dumb you old fool.

Ain't never gonna happen, just like McCain won't have a chance. It will be a landslide for Obama.

Have you McCain supporters thought about moving to Canada?

How many of these early votes were recorded on the models of electronic voting machine that have already been widely reported across the country as switching Democratic votes to Republican?

There is always a chance that CA could do the improbable and go red, but I'm guessing that a number of those Republican votes are for Obama. Moderate Repubs are sick to death of the hotheaded neocons, mindless mavericks and the religious right that have given their party a bad name.

I don't know that I entirely trust a source called "RedState.com" to be totally impartial with their reporting. I'm just saying, the source clearly makes no bones about it's affiliation.

And maybe everyone will get a pony for their birthdays.

what a fool....

In California, we (republicans) are voting early because we are excited to vote yes on Proposition 8, which supports the traditional definition of marriage. It's not like the state's going to swing for McCain, however. Obama will win California.

The Republicans have historically won the "early voting" count. The interesting part of this story, much like the rest of the country, is that Obama is WINNING the early voter count.

The headline for the story is misleading and distracting.. but typical.

I suspect that the pollsters may have missed the impact of Prop 8. It is bringing huge numbers of conservatives to the polls in CA, and 99.9% of them will vote for the GOP ticket.

What the heck are they talking about, "sea of blue."

California is a "red" state with tiny blue specks in the metropolitan areas where hordes of leftists congregate. It's true that elected officials represent people and not land, but the DIVERSITY of interests in this state has been, and always will be, represented by conservatives. The liberal cannabalistic underground dwellers are many in number, but it's the rest of us who contribute to GDP and maintain the social and economic values which have made our nation great.

The more "blue" we see in this nation, the more blue we will ALL become. You can't help those who DO NOT and HAVE NOT by redistributing wealth from those who DO and HAVE.

If so many illegal aliens weren't voting in California's elections, those tiny blue specks would become a lot more purple.

There are NO sources for these numbers at RedState. They are pulling these numbers out of thin air. This story is a complete fabrication. This story should not be propagated.

Seriously, you can't just say an arbitrary number of people are doing a particular thing without a source for the numbers.

What results are they referring to?

"The results thus far are the complete opposite. In the most liberal state in the entire country,the results are that 99,000 Republicans have voted and 96,000 Democrats voted. In the mail-in balloting the results so far are that 9,000 Democrats sent in their ballots and that 5,000 Republicans did so. So with nearly 210,000 people having voted,the Democrats have only a 1,000 vote advantage !"

Where did these number come from? Results? Results from what? What study? What poll? California does not disclose this type information until after the election.

Someone at redstate.com is not very good at math, or English, or something.

For the results to be the "exact opposite" of the polls, it would mean that the early voting has MORE Republicans voting, which it doesn't.
AND it should actually show an 18-point lead for them.

Damn elites, being educated and smart and all... ;^)

I'm extremely skeptical about the low numbers reported by red state dot com (could this source be biassed? helloo!). Way more people that I know have voted absentee than ever before so a hundred thousand on either side seems quite low at this point. I'll believe a republican overthrow in California when I see it and not before.

Way to fashion a headline.

Pure puffery.

Seriously? Is this what it is going to take to make this election interesting? I've seen more logical stories at www.slander08.com.

This information is so bogus. As of today, over 2,000,000 Californians have voted early, according to CNN, so the numbers in the article above are irrelevant:
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/27/early.voting.map/index.html?eref=rss_latest

Besides, the "source" of this information is a right-wing blog called redalert, which attributed the information to the SF Chronicle's web site, sfgate.com. Naturally, redalert couldn't provide a link to its "source." It somehow vanished, although I doubt it ever existed.

I think Republicans may be getting so depressed that they're becoming delusional.

From your Liberal newspaper to God's ears!

And how many of these are republicans voting for Obama. This unique election has shown many republicans supporting a democrat this time around.

I don't know if this is true in other counties, but San Diego County only has weekday early voting at this point -- if it had weekend early voting, my guess is a lot of Obama supporters would have gone and voted. Starting this weekend, I believe there will be an incredibly outpouring of early votes for Obama (again, don't know if this is the same in all counties, but very frustrating for people like me that work long hours during the week). I think RedState is just a little too hopeful....

Just goes to show: SERVICE and ACTION win out PROMISES anyday... and RIGHTFULLY SO!!!

GO MCCAIN / PALIN 2008!!! MAKE HISTORY!!!

 
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