Any chance California goes from blue to red?*

The polls have shown California to be Obama country for months. And the pundits are still predicting a sea of blue. But there has been a lot of chatter on the political blogs about an interesting finding on early voting in the state.

According to RedState.com, 104,000 Republicans have voted early or by mail-in ballot, compared with 105,000 Democrats.

The polls showed Barack Obama with an 18-point lead in California just a few days ago. The results thus far are the complete opposite. ... With nearly 210,000 people having voted, the Democrats have only a 1,000 vote advantage! If we take the liberty of assuming that all Republicans will vote for John McCain and all Democrats will vote for Obama, then the race is incredibly close.

At the Atlantic, Marc Ambinger offers this analysis: "Early voting is very popular in California, and Republicans tend to vote at higher rates than Democrats. More conservative areas of the state tend to vote early; Los Angeles County traditionally has the lowest early-voting rate. Don't know if the above statistics are correct, but if they are, they're not usual for that state... More importantly though, if Republicans believe that the party breakdown of who is voting early is indicative, then what do they think about what is going on in Nevada, Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, Indiana, and North Carolina?  Verdict: Nothingburger."

*Updated: The Real Clear Politics average of California polls shows Obama with a huge lead: 58.7% compared to 34% for McCain. The Rasmussen spread is even larger.

-- Shelby Grad

Photo: Associated Press

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Comments

[Peter Truong]

Silent voters will make history fro McCain. It'll be surprised that California turns from Blue to Red.

[OldManCA]

powinca? -- Your rant is amusing.

1 - You can rest assured that 99.999% of illegal aliens would not risk getting caught by trying to vote.

2 - Your assumption that conservatives are the folk who earn the money that is counted into California's GDP (and that liberals do not) is unsupported, and unsupportable. In fact it is more likely the opposite. On average the better educated have a higher income, and on average the better educated are Democrats. Also one of the major revenue generators in California is the entertainment industry, which is mostly liberal Democrats.

3 - California is a split state, with a majority favoring Democrats, because the Republicans have gone nasty. Proof -- the exception is Arnold, who is perceived as a true "compassionate conservative", one who cares for the little guy, and who wants to keep a healthy climate for business, to employ the little guy. When the Republicans avoid blaming everyone, and drop the us against them tone, then they can do well in California. But in the last decade or so, that has not happened all that often.

[Arthur E. Lemay]

Actually, since we live in France, we have lived in this mixed economy country long enough to know the difference. It does not feel a lot different from the U.S. It is a lot different from an employer's perspective, however. There, the social taxes make employment very costly, and it is practically impossible to fire anyone. A minimum wage (SMIC) employee costs over $30,000 a year, because of the social taxes. So, employers are very picky about hiring. If a young person does not have the BAC (sort of like a junior College degree), he or she is virtually unemployable. And a professional job needs the BC + 2, at least. Arab immigrants without the BAC need not apply.

I remember a French person on TV who explained it this way: in France, you rarely get fired, but if you do, it takes five years to find a new job. In the US, it is common to get fired, but it takes only five days to find a new job, and you probably will make more money.

Although taxes are high, the Universities are free, and the medical care is universal, and is the best in the world. It is only available to those who are citizens, or who have residence permits. This is unlike England where all residents get the NHS, and prescription drug benefits.

60% of all citizens work for the Government. But, this includes La Poste, SNCF (French rail), EDF (Electricity and gas), France Telecom, TF1 (TV), ADP (airports), RATP (rail and bus in Paris). and of course Renault, Citreoen/Peugeot, and the airbus, in addition to the police and civil servants. The horrid problem is they seem to be on strike constantly and they shut down the entire country if they are unhappy. Some privileged sectors get retirement at 55 with 90% of their last paycheck. The whole system is bankrupt, and in just a few years the money will run out. And no one knows what to do.

There is one facet in which Socialism really pays off. More than 80% of electricity is generated with Nuclear power. It is the fourth largest export. virtually every town of any size is served with electrified rail, and the large cities are connected with the TGV(fast trains) which go 187 miles per hour, soon to be brought up to 215 miles per hour. These run on welded rail, custom laser-aligned track beds, and the ride is very smooth. These were the responsibility of the government in Paris, starting with General DeGaulle.

There are no private companies for any of these services. France has no states, but it has departments, and every department has its services, and so do towns who have semi-autonomous local Governments.

There are no environmentalists like the US because they have no standing in courts. The Government signed the Kyoto protocols, but it seems to have no effect. There are no nuclear protesters and although there are 65 generating centers (many with multiple nuclear generators), there have been no accidents. The airbs is assembled in Toulouse, but it is a pan-European project.

There is re-distribution of wealth, social housing, child allowances, etc. But, in the Paris suburbs, there are many arab immigrants who are unemployable. This is a big problem.

But, in France the elites are the bureaucrats. And the Presidents of the big nationalized indusrtries are politicians appointed by the Prime Minister and the French President.

The big difference comparing French policy vs. Obama's is that there is no racial conflict (none of the blacks have an accent), and there is no class envy resulting in punitive taxes against the wealthy. There is a wealth tax which does not exist in the US, however.

So, comparing France to the US, growth is slow, there is not much venture capital, employment is very rigid, the native French birth rate produces a negative population trend, but the arabs make up for it.

Socialism works, and there are communists in the Government, but not many. And, they act like lunatics -- just like the Democrat "progressives." Here, in the US, the Obama fans talk like French communists, the socialists are the mainstream, but, they are moving to the right, witness the rightist President, Mr. Sarkozy who is privatizing and getting away from the socialist model which is bankrupting the country, and everyone knows it too.

[Web Smith]

Electing federal and state Democratic legislatures did nothing. It only made matters worse only they got a lot worse a lot faster and they still went along with what their Republican Governor and President wanted.

Considering the previous performance of the government, there is something really frightening about have a Democratic legislature and President. Gallup polls are showing that the population would prefer not to have it that way.

[Web Smith]

Electing federal and state Democratic legislatures did nothing. It only made matters worse only they got a lot worse a lot faster and they still went along with what their Republican Governor and President wanted.

Considering the previous performance of the government, there is something really frightening about have a Democratic legislature and President. Gallup polls are showing that the population would prefer not to have it that way.

[Mateo in SoCal]

I too am a registered Republican who basically voted strait ticket Democrat, I also live in Republican Loving Orange County. It wont even be close, McCain/Jesus (Palin) 08 it wont be!

[J. Scott Davis]

I'm McCain/Palin all the way. I was born in San Bernardino, CA., grew up in nearby Riverside a portion of my life, have much employment experience in Orange County and served in the military in San Diego. That makes me enough of a Californian....... Yes, the polls tell another story because they are liberally manipulated, but I'm seeing some funky numbers coming out of California favoring McCain/Palin. Hummmmmmmmmmmm!

[Bill Mitchell]

I looked up your voting records (Ca) for 2004 and saw that the "huge majority" that the Democrats think they have wasn't so big last time they all voted. Kerry only won the state by 9 points ( 1,236,000) votes. For a state that has 36,500,000 people with 15,695,000 registered voters anything could (not likely) happen.But its not out of the question

[Rich]

The Repubs came out early to vote not because they care about the Presidential race, but because they want to support Prop 8, which would take away the right of a gay person to marry. For some reason, this is their #1 fear in life. I have read article after article that said Prop 8 brought many people into politics who had never cared before - and these people were all on the conservative side. I would argue that gay marriage in fact lost John Kerry the 2004 election - although he came out and said he does not support it, his state was in fact the first to legalize it, shortly before the election.

[Free Spirit]

Ummm...I haven't been following the polls or anything in CA lately, but it seems to me that any analysis of voting behavior in CA that includes only Democrats and Republicans must be leaving out a sizeable percentage of voters.

[ReaganSurprise]

If I recall, didn't CA vote for a Republican President in the 1980s .... twice? And from 1972-1988 CA went red in every one of those elections. Granted you've gone blue from 1992-2004 but you may want to be careful about guaranteeing an Obama win. Just a statement of fact to all of those who claim that CA would never go red ...

[GA Votes for Obama]

I've read the state of GA has record black turn out in early voting. GA, a republican state? Please, let's be realistic.

[R.J. Drummond]

CA Democrat here (voted Dem in '92, '96, '00, '04)...I just voted McCain. You can't assume anything by party affiliation in this particular election.

[Jeff1001]

I can't believe some of you here, voting for McCain... what, so you can have 4 more years of this same BS? McCain is Bush's right hand puppet, despite anything McCain claims. The last thing we also need, is another warmonger as President.

All politicians are liars, but its time for a change. Eight years of Republican control has driven the country into the ground.

[NorCalJoe]

Rev. Martin Luther King, Jr. stated

"Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere."

Proposition 8 is UNJUST and UNFAIR. STOP DISCRIMINATION COLD, and VOTE *NO* on Proposition 8 on Tuesday 11/4.

Obama'08

[BJD]

Let's pray it turns red. In past elections republicans have failed to vote because they just assumed that it would go blue. I always believed that if all of us on the right would all vote it would go to the republican party. What majority of Los Angeles doesn't realize is that the state is largely red throughout its suburban areas and largely through the North.
And, just like there are Republicans voting left wing, I know plenty of democrats that are voting McCain because they don't want to see the economy continue in this downward spiral.

[So Cal Rep]

McCain and Bush as TWO completely separate people with two different ways of running things.

I personally blame democrats or Bush haters for the economy and its issues.
Most people can not even fathom how the economy works, as simple as it is. So everyone is humming along just fine, some clown in the liberal news media says bush this economy down and every democrat in America stops spending their money and starts blaming Bush for the economy.

People until you open your mind and start paying attention to the entire country, not just Fakeifornia and realize the biggest issues we have here all stem from the local government. I like to point out that the best run states are republican run, the states with the most crime and violent crime and democrat run. Also keep in mind Bush has had to work with a democrat congress for two years, WOW I bet that works like a lead balloon.

Friggin democrats are destroying this country and Obama is just a huge chunk of TnT thrown into the mix.

[Roger Dirkwald]

I am a registered democrat in San Diego.. I think it is irresponsible to vote for a ticket where the VP candidate has as little experience as Palin.. but it is even more irresponsible to vote for a ticket where the PRESIDENT candidate has the same degree of inexperience..

So I voted for McCain/Palin

(Hillary being dissed helped also in my decision)...

[NOT Partisan John]

Somewhere way back in this blog, I heard the suggestion to John McCain that he consider moving to Canada. As an American citizen born in Canada, I say HAHA! "That Socialist", Barack Obama is only a centrist in Canada and in much of Europe as well so what ever would McCain do??? This wonderful country, America, has a political center considerably to the right of much of the Western world.

I voted Obama today and the world is holding its collective breath, praying that we vote for rationality, depth of thought and NOT Joe 6 Pack's "Does he/she look like me" (Sorry, Sen McCain; I'm talking about your choice for VP).

As for Arnold, I voted for him 2 years ago because I believe he's the right man to govern our state. Sarah Palin would send me screaming to "write in" Pearl Buck for God's sake!

NOT Partisan, John.