Any chance California goes from blue to red?*

The polls have shown California to be Obama country for months. And the pundits are still predicting a sea of blue. But there has been a lot of chatter on the political blogs about an interesting finding on early voting in the state.

According to RedState.com, 104,000 Republicans have voted early or by mail-in ballot, compared with 105,000 Democrats.

The polls showed Barack Obama with an 18-point lead in California just a few days ago. The results thus far are the complete opposite. ... With nearly 210,000 people having voted, the Democrats have only a 1,000 vote advantage! If we take the liberty of assuming that all Republicans will vote for John McCain and all Democrats will vote for Obama, then the race is incredibly close.

At the Atlantic, Marc Ambinger offers this analysis: "Early voting is very popular in California, and Republicans tend to vote at higher rates than Democrats. More conservative areas of the state tend to vote early; Los Angeles County traditionally has the lowest early-voting rate. Don't know if the above statistics are correct, but if they are, they're not usual for that state... More importantly though, if Republicans believe that the party breakdown of who is voting early is indicative, then what do they think about what is going on in Nevada, Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, Indiana, and North Carolina?  Verdict: Nothingburger."

*Updated: The Real Clear Politics average of California polls shows Obama with a huge lead: 58.7% compared to 34% for McCain. The Rasmussen spread is even larger.

-- Shelby Grad

Photo: Associated Press

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Comments

[Alan Mittelstaedt]

Bring back Veronique!!!!!!

[SteveSanders]

Apparently they don't know California. Most people here do things at the last minute...so just wait for the last hour of Nov. 4th, that's when the real results come in.

[lipreader]

No, there is no chance California will vote for McCain.

This has been another simple answer to an easy question.

[eb]

Aw, c'mon. Redstate.com is a hard-right site hoping to push its readers to vote for McCain. They have no data, just propaganda. We do you give them any publicity? They certainly have no credibility.

[Nick LaRocca]

The new McCain strategy: win CA and NY to offset Obama's gains in traditionally Republican states. Why didn't he think of this sooner?

Me? In order to lose weight, I'll eat the same and just assimilate the body of a slimmer person.

[colin Barton]

What is this writer smoking?

[temp1abc]

What's the average age of a mail-in voter? Probably over 50.

Mail-in ballots have NEVER been indicative of final results.

Stay optimistic!

[Kathy]

Red would be nice... don't see it happening although.

[Wade]

Yes, and Rick Santorum will run for Mayor of San Francisco

[Eddy]

I was for Obama, but out here in California $250K isn't that much with house prices and all...I am switching to McCain. I feel like I am barely keeping my head above water. I don't want my money "redistributed" to anyone...I want to just keep it.

[j]

Love the sound of this!

McCain/Palin 08
HillaryClinton 2012

[beevee]

California will never be red state in a national election. These blogs are a republican ploy to confuse people and make them change their mind about going democratic (especially the uncommitted). So don't be fooled.

[California Republican]

I'm one of the California republicans that voted early. Thing is, I voted for Barack Obama as did a lot of republican friends I know. So I think it's way off base to be saying California could be a red state just based on voter registration.

[Andrew]

No. But thanks for asking!

[ARTHUR BURRIS]

LONG TIME DEMOCRAT, FIRST TIME REPUBLICAN...NO ONE HAS CALLED ME TO ASK WHO WE WERE VOTING FOR THIS YEAR.... I TELL YOU NOW ...JOHN MC CLAIN THE WIFE AND I CANT VOTE DEMOCRAT THISZ YEAR....ARTHUR

[Barton Kunstler]

I suspect there's been a push by Republicans to get out a strong early vote in hopes of generating precisely this sort of buzz, in the hopes that buzz becomes momentum, etc. Thus it is not anything close to a random sampling, as an exit poll is supposed to be, especially if there is a tactical intention behind the strong Republican numbers. Obama still should win California handily.

[Brad]

Wouldn't the "complete opposite" of Obama's 18 point lead be an 18 point lead for McCain?

[steven]

thats funny, they can assume all they want, I know 2 republicans that already voted...and they voted for Nader.... Cause Anybody who votes for the two clowns is stupid....

SK

[Justin]

What does counting votes cast by a republican or a democrat have to do who they voted for. Surely there are Democrats who will vote for McCain as there are Republicans who will vote for Obama.

[Steve Siegel]

In Los Angeles there is only one place for early voting, in Norwalk. In other years there have been more than a dozen, including one close to me in Pasadena. Millions of voters, one early voting venue. Something's wrong. I think that lots of voters are disenfranchised by this situation.

[James Grant]

What an amazingly irresponsible story. There is no reason to think all Republicans will vote for McCain. There is evidence everywhere that they are switching, even here in California.

Please raise your standards of journalism.

[Paul Svec]

Shelby,
The answer is NO.
And I will cover the bets with anyone who would like to wager otherwise.
Silly article. Must be a slow news day.

[emmanuel goldstein]

I'm a Calfornia registered Republican.

I've already sent in my absentee ballot.

I voted for Barak Obama.

[Benjamin]

As an Obama supporter who has voted early, I can tell you who I saw at the polls... Older republican looking people. Very far from the types of people I've seen at the polls on election day in the past(my first year voting early).

We Californians expect a higher degree of intelligence from our candidates than what we've seen out of the McCain/Palin camp. I'll vote for Ahhhnold any day, he's smart, I love the guy, but I'm not voting for some hick from Alaska whose husband is a member of a separatist party, who thinks such pathetically simple and easy questions like "what papers do you read" are somehow 'gotcha' questions.

And that "real America" bit, that was a shot at California, New York, and most of the other engines of economic activity in this nation. Despite the fact that our state is now and has been for 20 years a net giver in federal taxes, paying more in taxes than we take in federal money(Alaska can't say this). We have THE number 1 economy in the Union, we have one of the top 10 economies in the world. We are the free market, while Palin comes from one of the most dependent states in the union. Yet, who do you think she would consider "socialists"? We are a damned fine state and we deserve a helluva lot better than McCain/Palin.

Obama stands for everything the majority of the people in this state stands for. The free market, yes, innovation, yes, but also to use taxes to provide safety nets and assistance for the most vulnerable in society. McCain might think that's socialism, but he might want to take a look at just how big a free and functioning free market California has compared to Arizona, and he might also want to take a look and note that his state has been a net taker of federal funds for as long as he's been a senator.

If he and all the other red state dwellers really want to prove they're against redistribution of wealth, he and they should stand for a law that bars a state from receiving more in federal tax money than it pays. They won't though, because the embarrassing truth for these people who masquerade as champions of the free market who don't believe in redistribution of wealth is, the majority of net taker states in this nation are red states and the majority of net givers are blue.

[Doug Dennison]

Ummm...but what if those Republicans are like me, and vote for Obama???

There goes THAT theory out the window....

You heard it here... L A N D S L I D E Obama....