Any chance California goes from blue to red?*

The polls have shown California to be Obama country for months. And the pundits are still predicting a sea of blue. But there has been a lot of chatter on the political blogs about an interesting finding on early voting in the state.

According to RedState.com, 104,000 Republicans have voted early or by mail-in ballot, compared with 105,000 Democrats.

The polls showed Barack Obama with an 18-point lead in California just a few days ago. The results thus far are the complete opposite. ... With nearly 210,000 people having voted, the Democrats have only a 1,000 vote advantage! If we take the liberty of assuming that all Republicans will vote for John McCain and all Democrats will vote for Obama, then the race is incredibly close.

At the Atlantic, Marc Ambinger offers this analysis: "Early voting is very popular in California, and Republicans tend to vote at higher rates than Democrats. More conservative areas of the state tend to vote early; Los Angeles County traditionally has the lowest early-voting rate. Don't know if the above statistics are correct, but if they are, they're not usual for that state... More importantly though, if Republicans believe that the party breakdown of who is voting early is indicative, then what do they think about what is going on in Nevada, Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, Indiana, and North Carolina?  Verdict: Nothingburger."

*Updated: The Real Clear Politics average of California polls shows Obama with a huge lead: 58.7% compared to 34% for McCain. The Rasmussen spread is even larger.

-- Shelby Grad

Photo: Associated Press

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Comments

[Alan Mittelstaedt]

Bring back Veronique!!!!!!

[SteveSanders]

Apparently they don't know California. Most people here do things at the last minute...so just wait for the last hour of Nov. 4th, that's when the real results come in.

[lipreader]

No, there is no chance California will vote for McCain.

This has been another simple answer to an easy question.

[eb]

Aw, c'mon. Redstate.com is a hard-right site hoping to push its readers to vote for McCain. They have no data, just propaganda. We do you give them any publicity? They certainly have no credibility.

[Nick LaRocca]

The new McCain strategy: win CA and NY to offset Obama's gains in traditionally Republican states. Why didn't he think of this sooner?

Me? In order to lose weight, I'll eat the same and just assimilate the body of a slimmer person.

[colin Barton]

What is this writer smoking?

[temp1abc]

What's the average age of a mail-in voter? Probably over 50.

Mail-in ballots have NEVER been indicative of final results.

Stay optimistic!

[Kathy]

Red would be nice... don't see it happening although.

[Wade]

Yes, and Rick Santorum will run for Mayor of San Francisco

[Eddy]

I was for Obama, but out here in California $250K isn't that much with house prices and all...I am switching to McCain. I feel like I am barely keeping my head above water. I don't want my money "redistributed" to anyone...I want to just keep it.

[j]

Love the sound of this!

McCain/Palin 08
HillaryClinton 2012

[beevee]

California will never be red state in a national election. These blogs are a republican ploy to confuse people and make them change their mind about going democratic (especially the uncommitted). So don't be fooled.

[California Republican]

I'm one of the California republicans that voted early. Thing is, I voted for Barack Obama as did a lot of republican friends I know. So I think it's way off base to be saying California could be a red state just based on voter registration.

[Andrew]

No. But thanks for asking!

[ARTHUR BURRIS]

LONG TIME DEMOCRAT, FIRST TIME REPUBLICAN...NO ONE HAS CALLED ME TO ASK WHO WE WERE VOTING FOR THIS YEAR.... I TELL YOU NOW ...JOHN MC CLAIN THE WIFE AND I CANT VOTE DEMOCRAT THISZ YEAR....ARTHUR

[Barton Kunstler]

I suspect there's been a push by Republicans to get out a strong early vote in hopes of generating precisely this sort of buzz, in the hopes that buzz becomes momentum, etc. Thus it is not anything close to a random sampling, as an exit poll is supposed to be, especially if there is a tactical intention behind the strong Republican numbers. Obama still should win California handily.

[Brad]

Wouldn't the "complete opposite" of Obama's 18 point lead be an 18 point lead for McCain?

[steven]

thats funny, they can assume all they want, I know 2 republicans that already voted...and they voted for Nader.... Cause Anybody who votes for the two clowns is stupid....

SK

[Justin]

What does counting votes cast by a republican or a democrat have to do who they voted for. Surely there are Democrats who will vote for McCain as there are Republicans who will vote for Obama.

[Steve Siegel]

In Los Angeles there is only one place for early voting, in Norwalk. In other years there have been more than a dozen, including one close to me in Pasadena. Millions of voters, one early voting venue. Something's wrong. I think that lots of voters are disenfranchised by this situation.

[James Grant]

What an amazingly irresponsible story. There is no reason to think all Republicans will vote for McCain. There is evidence everywhere that they are switching, even here in California.

Please raise your standards of journalism.

[Paul Svec]

Shelby,
The answer is NO.
And I will cover the bets with anyone who would like to wager otherwise.
Silly article. Must be a slow news day.

[emmanuel goldstein]

I'm a Calfornia registered Republican.

I've already sent in my absentee ballot.

I voted for Barak Obama.

[Benjamin]

As an Obama supporter who has voted early, I can tell you who I saw at the polls... Older republican looking people. Very far from the types of people I've seen at the polls on election day in the past(my first year voting early).

We Californians expect a higher degree of intelligence from our candidates than what we've seen out of the McCain/Palin camp. I'll vote for Ahhhnold any day, he's smart, I love the guy, but I'm not voting for some hick from Alaska whose husband is a member of a separatist party, who thinks such pathetically simple and easy questions like "what papers do you read" are somehow 'gotcha' questions.

And that "real America" bit, that was a shot at California, New York, and most of the other engines of economic activity in this nation. Despite the fact that our state is now and has been for 20 years a net giver in federal taxes, paying more in taxes than we take in federal money(Alaska can't say this). We have THE number 1 economy in the Union, we have one of the top 10 economies in the world. We are the free market, while Palin comes from one of the most dependent states in the union. Yet, who do you think she would consider "socialists"? We are a damned fine state and we deserve a helluva lot better than McCain/Palin.

Obama stands for everything the majority of the people in this state stands for. The free market, yes, innovation, yes, but also to use taxes to provide safety nets and assistance for the most vulnerable in society. McCain might think that's socialism, but he might want to take a look at just how big a free and functioning free market California has compared to Arizona, and he might also want to take a look and note that his state has been a net taker of federal funds for as long as he's been a senator.

If he and all the other red state dwellers really want to prove they're against redistribution of wealth, he and they should stand for a law that bars a state from receiving more in federal tax money than it pays. They won't though, because the embarrassing truth for these people who masquerade as champions of the free market who don't believe in redistribution of wealth is, the majority of net taker states in this nation are red states and the majority of net givers are blue.

[Doug Dennison]

Ummm...but what if those Republicans are like me, and vote for Obama???

There goes THAT theory out the window....

You heard it here... L A N D S L I D E Obama....

[ophu]

RedState.com seems to foolishly assume that all those republicans will vote for McCain this year, when many of them are planning to vote democrat.

[Donna S]

Dream on Republicans - Absentee ballots skew to elderly people - who are more likely to be Republican. California is blue and will probably always be blue. Also the assumption that all Republicans are voting with the party line after 8 years of Bush is hilarious.

[Oscar Levin]

How ridiculously silly. The polls sited do not claim that the number of registered Democrats is up by 18 points over the number of registered Republicans. The whole point of the large reported margin is that many registered Republicans will be voting for Obama. The news story might as well be "Looks like McCain will win California: There have already been 210,000 mail in votes, and if we assume all mail in votes go for McCain, he is off to an early lead!"

Sheesh!

[Larry]

There will be many surprises in November. The media think they have locked up the election - they have not....

[beevee]

California will never be a red state in a national election. This is republican ploy to confuse voters into thinking that McCain will win California and influence the uncommitted. It wont work Mr. McCain. We are not that dumb you old fool.

[Bob]

Ain't never gonna happen, just like McCain won't have a chance. It will be a landslide for Obama.

Have you McCain supporters thought about moving to Canada?

[Pyre]

How many of these early votes were recorded on the models of electronic voting machine that have already been widely reported across the country as switching Democratic votes to Republican?

[Janet]

There is always a chance that CA could do the improbable and go red, but I'm guessing that a number of those Republican votes are for Obama. Moderate Repubs are sick to death of the hotheaded neocons, mindless mavericks and the religious right that have given their party a bad name.

[Mark]

I don't know that I entirely trust a source called "RedState.com" to be totally impartial with their reporting. I'm just saying, the source clearly makes no bones about it's affiliation.

[Andy Stern]

And maybe everyone will get a pony for their birthdays.

[gary grimes]

what a fool....

[A. Burns]

In California, we (republicans) are voting early because we are excited to vote yes on Proposition 8, which supports the traditional definition of marriage. It's not like the state's going to swing for McCain, however. Obama will win California.

[Weeks]

The Republicans have historically won the "early voting" count. The interesting part of this story, much like the rest of the country, is that Obama is WINNING the early voter count.

The headline for the story is misleading and distracting.. but typical.

[Scott Spetter]

I suspect that the pollsters may have missed the impact of Prop 8. It is bringing huge numbers of conservatives to the polls in CA, and 99.9% of them will vote for the GOP ticket.

[powinca]

What the heck are they talking about, "sea of blue."

California is a "red" state with tiny blue specks in the metropolitan areas where hordes of leftists congregate. It's true that elected officials represent people and not land, but the DIVERSITY of interests in this state has been, and always will be, represented by conservatives. The liberal cannabalistic underground dwellers are many in number, but it's the rest of us who contribute to GDP and maintain the social and economic values which have made our nation great.

The more "blue" we see in this nation, the more blue we will ALL become. You can't help those who DO NOT and HAVE NOT by redistributing wealth from those who DO and HAVE.

If so many illegal aliens weren't voting in California's elections, those tiny blue specks would become a lot more purple.

[dave]

There are NO sources for these numbers at RedState. They are pulling these numbers out of thin air. This story is a complete fabrication. This story should not be propagated.

Seriously, you can't just say an arbitrary number of people are doing a particular thing without a source for the numbers.

What results are they referring to?

"The results thus far are the complete opposite. In the most liberal state in the entire country,the results are that 99,000 Republicans have voted and 96,000 Democrats voted. In the mail-in balloting the results so far are that 9,000 Democrats sent in their ballots and that 5,000 Republicans did so. So with nearly 210,000 people having voted,the Democrats have only a 1,000 vote advantage !"

Where did these number come from? Results? Results from what? What study? What poll? California does not disclose this type information until after the election.

[dougieieie]

Someone at redstate.com is not very good at math, or English, or something.

For the results to be the "exact opposite" of the polls, it would mean that the early voting has MORE Republicans voting, which it doesn't.
AND it should actually show an 18-point lead for them.

Damn elites, being educated and smart and all... ;^)

[ggirton]

I'm extremely skeptical about the low numbers reported by red state dot com (could this source be biassed? helloo!). Way more people that I know have voted absentee than ever before so a hundred thousand on either side seems quite low at this point. I'll believe a republican overthrow in California when I see it and not before.

[Adrian]

Way to fashion a headline.

Pure puffery.

[Bill Safe]

Seriously? Is this what it is going to take to make this election interesting? I've seen more logical stories at www.slander08.com.

[Rational Thought]

This information is so bogus. As of today, over 2,000,000 Californians have voted early, according to CNN, so the numbers in the article above are irrelevant:
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/27/early.voting.map/index.html?eref=rss_latest

Besides, the "source" of this information is a right-wing blog called redalert, which attributed the information to the SF Chronicle's web site, sfgate.com. Naturally, redalert couldn't provide a link to its "source." It somehow vanished, although I doubt it ever existed.

I think Republicans may be getting so depressed that they're becoming delusional.

[Liberals are Scary]

From your Liberal newspaper to God's ears!

[Tami]

And how many of these are republicans voting for Obama. This unique election has shown many republicans supporting a democrat this time around.

[Kenn]

I don't know if this is true in other counties, but San Diego County only has weekday early voting at this point -- if it had weekend early voting, my guess is a lot of Obama supporters would have gone and voted. Starting this weekend, I believe there will be an incredibly outpouring of early votes for Obama (again, don't know if this is the same in all counties, but very frustrating for people like me that work long hours during the week). I think RedState is just a little too hopeful....

[Bill]

Just goes to show: SERVICE and ACTION win out PROMISES anyday... and RIGHTFULLY SO!!!

GO MCCAIN / PALIN 2008!!! MAKE HISTORY!!!

[Big Daddy]

All of the educated fools are going to have a rude awakeining come the evening of Nov. 4th when McCain The Hero has defeated Barack the Socialist!

California has just re-elected a REPUBLICAN Gov. Why is it such a hard streach to see the state vote for McCain, whom, has been seen as a moderate, independent-Republican even... much like Arnold the Actor turned "Arnold da Gov-ner!"

Not even Democrats want America to become a socialist / quazi-communist country... and if you look at Obama's history of characters in his life, his backing of socialist ideas, etc. THEN, there is only ONE logical and eveident conclusion to make about the guy... HE IS A SOCIALIST! Period!

[ferplexion]

People who live in rural areas are more likely to vote by mail. Here in LA, my polling place is 1 block away; I imagine it could be much farther if you live far from a town. The most recent poll of California (Rasmussen) shows Obama leading 61% to 34%.

[Brandon]

There will likely be 11-12 million votes cast in California. 200,000 votes represent less than 2% of that total. It's incredibly premature to think that somehow California will turn red based on the figures provided. It's incredible short-sighted, if not ignorant, to take resuts from a pro-republican blog as anything more than more campaigning.

California is dark blue in this election.

[Diana from Ventura]

And who is Redstate.com, your source for early voting numbers? Oh just a Republican 'boogyman' web site. This shoddy journalistic blurb is another example of throwing something smelly against the wall and seeing if it sticks. Hey Shelly, pick up your phone, The National Enquirer is calling.

[Emily Marie]

What wonderful news!
How nice that CA might decide it doesn't have to do what it is told, and can perhaps make good business and financial decisions instead of voting from hype and emotion!
Read the WSJ and IBD, not the rags!!!!

[Norma]

I lived in the suburbs of California, all my life, andI can tell you the states republicans always vote early, and then the rest show up on election day!

Don't worry just vote the dems will win hands down!!!

[Keven Kadel]

I live and vote in LA county. For some reason, the usual early voting computer options have not been offered in this election in LA. In addition, the requirements and deadlines for mail in voting are different than other elections.

[shek]

Wow, this is really groundbreaking work. You offer an argument from a partisan website, then completely refute that by stating that Republicans typically have a higher early voting rate. Of course it's possible for California to go red; and it's also "possible" for me to win the lottery.

[ailey]

Republicans always vote early more. And don't assume we're voting for McCain. Of the 4 Republicans in my family who have voted early, there is one secret ballot, 2 for Obama, and one for neither....

[Randy]

The so called 'Bradley effect' was linked to a gun control measure on the ballot. With the high interest in prop 8, conservative voters may well turn out in unimaginable numbers.

With all the controversy, I pray that there will be peace and that the spirit of violence that has been raising up will be bound by faith, hope, and love, which God has poured out on his people. The believers battle is not against flesh and blood, there should be no mistake that any conflict that is perceived is against spirits which seek to destroy. Jesus Christ must be praised and honored, not any person's wisdom or insight. Jesus Christ is LORD.

[ash]

All I can say is, OBAMA supporters ---- GET OUT THE VOTE! Obama/Biden '08

[Timothy Crocker]

Boy are you people hard up for something newsworthy (which this isn't). In the words of former QB and announcer Don Meredith :" Turn out the lights the party's over" Its time for some creativity (what about an analysis of McCain's future in the Senate?)

[R.D. Bowlus]

This would be more informative if it included info that I presume is available from the polls. Specifically, do current California polls indicate that all Republicans intend to vote for McCain and that all Democrats intend to vote for Obama? Furthermore, have any voters registered as Independent cast their ballots, and what do polling results on preferences say about their likely votes?

[whatever]

The only people who don't have time to go to the polls are the extremely weathly- AKA - the repukelicans. Makes sense that you, LA TIMES, which is now largely conservative, would even approach the suggestion that this very diverse state would be slipping into the hands of the irrational side of the ticket.

[silly silly]

Since when is it news that conservatives tend to vote early? Republicans have always led in early and absentee voting.

[Leftist Avenger]

Here we go again as the corporate-owned media begins setting us up for another election theft. Republicans and the so-called mainstream media just hate the thought of real democracy.

[Tom Reinhold]

This is not possible.
There is no way Republicans are close to Democrats.
Another rigged election coming up!!!!

[Sandra]

That's only because absentee voters are all old, and henceforth, Republicans!! This proves nothing.

[Tom Reinhold]

This is not possible.
There is no way Republicans are close to Democrats.
Another rigged election coming up!!!!

[Mike in Sac]

This is wishful thinking on the part of Conservatives. California is a diverse state with a huge spectrum of political parties and participants, but it is to the a little to the left of the majority of the US.

If this is the only local oiece you can find then you should dig a little deeper. What about how the horrible reality of the Republican brand is affecting local Republicans. Now that could be interesting.

[SLC_Raider]

If the number of GOP defections in the media is any indicator, I would say that you have to assume that at least 20% of those 104,000 early voting republicans have cast their ballot for the Obama/Biden ticket. McBush pretty much blew any chance he may have had at winning when he picked Caribou Barbie to be his running mate.

[Marteno]

What about "decline to state" voters? Those voters tend to lean liberal in CA. Besides, I thought the voting districts don't release results until all votes are counted, so how are they getting these results anyway?

[CAROL]

i am a early voter incalif and a black democrate who has voted for mc cain because of the unfair treatment to hilliry from the DNC

[joy]

One of the things that seems to be driving early voting for Democrats in other states is the history of Republican machinations on election day that leave many poorer and non white voters disenfranchised--voter purging, or what seems like deliberately shoddy management at the polls which leve people wating hours to cast a vote. People in those states are voting early to make sure their votes count, which is a story the media have largely been ignoring.

California has long been known as blue, there is no similar fear here. And so the profile fits the early voter of 04 and 00.

[Dmitriy]

It would help if LA Times would release the tape of Obama at dinner where he was praising Rashid Khalidi so each voter would be able to make up their mind.

[captbilly]

I don't think these early voting results in California mean anything at all. I live in Sacramento and I don't know anyone but my daughter (a college student living far from her polling place) who has voted early. For mr to vote early would require a long drive to a place I am not familiar with and a process with which I am not familiar.

I would say the odds of California going red are about the same as NY going red, or of Palin voting for Obama.

[S.J.Abraham]

Yeah riight and I have the Golden Gate bridge for sale. Oh I also red that McCain is double digits ahead in New York. Dream on,dream on.

[Elizabeth Gilmore]

Hopefully these Republican voters have realized like my many Republican friends In Napa, California, that McCain/Palin offer no solutions or ideas and are just running a smear campaign of character assassination.

They do not want to see America divided, and believe that Senators Obama and Biden offer the best talent, intelligence, and temperament to lead our country. .

They cast their absentee ballots last week- for Obama/Biden

Not this time.

[Buck]

This is just as silly as some Dems crowing about getting over 60% in polls on early voting in other states. There is absolutely no reason to believe that early voting or absentee voting is proportionately reflective of the entire vote in the state. In fact, it may well be the opposite trend from what regular election-day votes will show. The reasons may be revealing, but only in part. To make matters worse, we don't even know what the reasons are. In some states, voters voting early may just be more enthusiastic. Others my be in a panic over the outcome. Yet others may believe that early votes or absentee votes are more/less likely to count.

But it gets worse--the RedState post is completely idiotic. What do these number mean? Do they mean projected numbers from polled voters? Or do they simply represent how registered Dems and Repubes voted? It's not clear, but is more likely to be the latter. In this case, the projection RedState poster makes is completely ridiculous since it neither takes into account those not registered with either party nor does it account for the actual voting. We count not possibly have any idea of how either the Democrats or Republicans are voting. Even had we assumed 100% party-line vote, the margin would be provided by the independents and their votes are not likely to favor Republicans, according to poll numbers. But, at least this year, even the party-line vote cannot be a clear assumption.

The only other question is whether the early voting turnout is representative of the turnout on election day. But history points to this being a preposterous construct--as Ambinger points out.

[j d]

keep dreaming honey......I suggest you move to Texas.

[ss]

Why would the LA Times -- which used to be a respected newspaper -- publish such an absurdly speculative piece? This belongs in the National Inquirer. Frankly, both the reporter and the editor that approved publication should have a sit down with their bosses about what responsible journalism is. Don't expect me to buy any issues of your paper if that's the best you can do.

[ss]

Why would the LA Times -- which used to be a respected newspaper -- publish such an absurdly speculative piece? This belongs in the National Inquirer. Frankly, both the reporter and the editor that approved publication should have a sit down with their bosses about what responsible journalism is. Don't expect me to buy any issues of your paper if that's the best you can do.

[Ed Brancheau]

The problem with their assumptions is that they said that they took "the liberty of assuming that all Republicans will vote for John McCain." Well, since we have the liberty to vote either way, there are three Republicans that are voting for Obama.

Furthermore, two of us voted for McCain in the primary but because he hired Bush's lackeys to run his campaign; tapped Sarah Palin; made a thing about Ayers; and told Obama that he should be ashamed about dragging Joe the Plumber into this whole thing when he was the one that really dragged him into it has caused us to question a man that we used to like.

California = Red? Quit dreaming RedState.com and do something about the fearmongering your party is perpetuating. Quit making everything about religion... God vs. Allah / Buddha / etc. Stop calling for smaller government on one hand and then wanting to ban gay marriage or abortion on the other. Prohibiting people from doing as they wish means more government.

Finally, how come when CEOs of major corporations receive bonuses for laying off workers and are exempt for paying taxes on those bonuses is considered "capitalism". Everyone else sees it for what it really is... stealing from the little guy. Then when the little guy gets pissed off at being screwed for eight years and fights back its called "redistributing wealth".

Look, if executives at AIG can afford to go on retreats for $400,000 then they have the ability to pay a little more. The reason the pendulum is swinging so far to the left is that you made it swing so far to the right. Solution: talk to Christine Todd Whitman.

[mangoboy]

Why am I not surprised to read this. Remember, California gave the nation the now infamous "Bradley Effect".

[Corey K]

"If we take the liberty of assuming that all Republicans will vote for John McCain and all Democrats will vote for Obama, then the race is incredibly close."

--Except for the fact that in California, democrats make up for 43% of all registered voters while republicans are only 33%. Not so close any more is it?

[Daniel Robinson]

I'm in California and try as I might, I just can't find myself voting for Obama. If only he had more experience (like Hillary) or if he hadn't picked such a doggone goof for a VP or if he had an economic plan that wouldn't make the economy worse, or just something, then I could do it. But the times are too worrisome and the safe and sure bet is McCain. I guess that's what I'll end up doing afterall.

[Aroleflin]

"Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, it's inherent virtue is the equal share of misery". -Winston Churchill
By voting for Obama, you are voting for four years of grey clouded misery for which we have already seen two years under the Pelosi/Reid/Frank politburo.

[R.M. 'Auros' Harman]

I'm a Dem myself (and an Obama supporter), but I'm friends with at least four or five moderate Bay Area Republicans -- folks who like Arnie's moderate positions, and Steve Poizner -- who will not vote McCain. The RedState folks are DELUSIONAL if they think McCain will even manage a single-digit loss in this state.

[steve graves]

This is getting ridiculous - John McCain & Sarah Palin winning California??? What's next, they're gonna win New York too? Obviously the LA Times has run out of stories worth telling and has resorted to absurd fantasies in order to attract readers. Everyone, even the most diehard of Republicans, knows they have zero chance of actually winning the state of California. Come on guys, at least weave in a conspiracy theory or two to spice this lame-o story up a bit, because the facts are clearly not on your side. If you're gonna go fiction go all the way!!!

[STOPWAR]

Los Angeles will carry the day as there is no civilization North , West, South or East of Los Angeles . Grampy will be tucked in bed , cookies and warm milk at his bedside, stareing at his My Lai Massacre scrapbook as the results from the center of the universe are counted. Goodnight Grampy and Good Ridance.

[Arthur E. Lemay]

Well, here in Northern California, it is increasingly clear that Obama is a fraud. Why?

1. He says he will cut taxes. But, he wants to double the capital gains tax, reintroduce the death taxes and the marriage penalty. He will increase taxes on business, and prices will go up. So, taxes will go up, a lot. He is lying.

2. He wants to cut out missile defense. But, North Korea has ICBMs which can hit California. Why is this a good move?

3. He will withdraw from Iraq. Our troops will be demoralized, they won't re-enlist, and we will lose our National Defense. We will be defenseless against more 9/11 type attacks. Many thousands of lives could be lost.

4. He has sworn enemies of Israel on his staff. If he stops supporting Israel, Iran or the Arabs will hit Israel and unleash a major war. We don't want to see this.

5. There is not one associate who is not a criminal, a radical, or a communist, and his support of ACORN is associating him with their voting fraud program, and the Hillary campaign has evidence he rigged the votes in the caucus states and stole the nomination.

6. There are many complaints that the fund raising campaign is collecting illegal contributions.

7. He has not released any records of his past.

8. There are many instances where he is just flat out wrong in his assessments of national security issues, and he has such an narcissistic and egotistical attitude that he will not listen to his own experts. This is a mental condition.

9. He acts and behaves dishonestly, diverting taxpayer money to his family's bank accounts or to his campaigns -- this is stealing. And, in summary, he acts like a Chicago thug.

10. And, that's what he is, an unqualified, mentally ill, narcissist, and someone with no judgment, no courage, no ethics, and, who would tax us heavily and introduce a socialist/communist regime which Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez think is wonderful.

How can anyone actually vote for this zero of a politician, why he is nothing but an unethetical thug.

[D.S.]

Truly a terrible piece of reporting. Sorry for the blunt review, but honestly. This is more than amateurish -- it is grossly misleading. All respected pollsters show leads over 20% right now for Obama in the state (see link). The only reasonable question you should be asking is whether Obama will win the state in a historic landslide or by low double-digits, as some polls showed before the worst of the economic plunge last month.

[Patrick Laflamme]

Can desperate right wingers PLEASE stop referring to out dated quotes about Socialism from post WWII? These quotes were actually directed at the Soviets and Communism NOT Socialism. It was just easier to scare and confuse a public still largely ignorant of things beyond thier own border by lumping it all together. Socialism is an ECONOMIC policy just like Capitalism is an ECONOMIC policy, Democracy and Communism are GOVERNING policies. It is the governing policies we were all supposed to be made afraid of back in the day by these quotes; NOT the economic policies.

It is in fact fairly easy to argue that Socialism is more in line with the principles of a Democratic government than Capitalism is. Forgetting all the garbage added to our laws by greedy politicians, businessmen, and special interest groups; Democracy at it's heart has one principle - everyone is equal, everyone's opinion counts the same; that is the center reason for one vote for everyone. Capitalism throws this out of balance and in fact slowly destroys it because the end conclusion of Capitalism is one man above all. Dosen't sound very Democratic to me.

[Hillary or Bust]

I don't buy the comments from folks here saying that they know Republicans who are voting for Obama. Sorry, but either the commenter is lying or the Republican is lying to their Obama supporting friend. There is no way any real Republican would vote for Obama based on Obama's extremely dubious ties to very radical people. I think it is more likely the opposite is true - that there are lots of Dems voting for McCain. So I would not be surprised if California was much closer than the polls suggest because I personally know many PUMAs here who are planning on voting McCain. I am a registered Democrat and Hillary supporter who will be voting for McCain.

I was at the Palin rally in SoCal and was shocked at how many people showed up. A lot of them were Latinos and Asians, who have no "white guilt" to make them vote Obama. McCain and Palin are more popular here than people either realize or want to admit.

I am also surprised at how few Obama signs there are in Los Angeles. In my neighborhood (in West LA) there are NONE. This is nothing like 2004 when Kerry signs and stickers were everywhere. So the Obama support is soft at best here. I'm not betting on a McCain win in California - it's still unlikely, but it also would not surprise me.

[jon]

RedState.com? I think someone woke up this morning in a mood of denial.. :)

Obama/Biden 2008

[RReppy]

Daniel Robinson said of Obama: " if he hadn't picked such a doggone goof for a VP " ...

and you think McCain's pick of a VP does NOT qualify as a "goof"?
Really?

[carol little]

it doesn`t matter the electoral college is the one that decides the election.we can vote til the seals come home for you . but that is the facts.not everyone agrees that obama is the best candidate. i do not like either one. obama religion is what i am concrened about. some one who does not believe in GOD.doesn`t need to be in office. my vote goes for mccain at least he believes in christian morals and in GOD.

[WhataFarceTheLATIMESis]

One thing this article has cleared up for me and for many others I am sure- the LA Times is a farce. What a shoddy piece of desperate sensationalism this article is. For all of the reasons stated by other posts here - like the fact that no matter what a person's party affiliation it may or may NOT correlate to their choice of candidates- representing this "article" as news, or even reliable "information" is a clear indicator of the irrelevance and carelessness of the LA TImes. What a JOKE. Whatever reason the LA Times has for it's effort to prop up the implosion of the Republican party will be a subject of discussion after the election. The overwhelming landslide election that you are deliberately NOT reporting that is.

[Ryan]

I think I just wasted 2 minutes of my life reading this article.

[HawkinCA]

MY mom and brother are both registered Repubs and have voted for Obama already. I am an independent and have done so also. He'll win this stat by at least 15 points. Write a real story please.