"Property tax revenue plummets with home values" Sunday in the San Francisco Chronicle takes a look at the future of state property tax coffers:
California could pay the price for the foreclosure crisis for years to come, thanks to Proposition 13, the 1978 voter initiative that caps property taxes.
As banks feverishly dump foreclosed homes at cut-rate prices, and as neighboring homes change hands at similar bargain-basement rates, those amounts are enshrined as the new basis for determining property tax until the homes are sold again. Under Prop. 13, that basis can rise a maximum of just 2 percent a year, even if the home is worth significantly more. The consequence is likely to be a revenue crunch for the public services funded by property tax revenues.
"This is going to have a long-term impact on the state budget and on local budgets," said Jean Ross, executive director of the nonpartisan California Budget Project in Sacramento. "It means that even after the economy recovers, state and local government budgets will not recover fully."
I'm not quite following the dig at Prop. 13 here, but I'd be curious to know what L.A. Land readers think about the proposition so many years out. Should we still have it? Is it fair? I get the point, however, which is explained further:
Here's an example: A four-bedroom home in Antioch sold for $700,000 in 2005. Annual property taxes were $7,000, or 1 percent of the purchase price. If the home goes into foreclosure and sells for $400,000, a common scenario in a county where values have plummeted, the new tax would be $4,000 -- or $3,000 less.
Consider that almost 250,000 homes in California were repossessed by lenders last year, according to ForeclosureRadar.com, and you get a sense of the mega dollars lost to the cities, counties, K-12 schools, community colleges and special districts that rely on property tax revenue.
Loans on those properties amount to $107.8 billion, ForeclosureRadar said. Assume the loans roughly equaled the previous purchase prices, and make a conservative estimate that the foreclosed properties got resold for 35 percent less than those previous prices. That means $37.7 billion in property values has been wiped out -- which amounts to a $377 million bite out of annual property taxes that will persist until the properties are resold.
In the 31 years since Prop. 13 was enacted, property tax revenue has increased every year -- until now.
Also of note was this prediction a couple years down the road:
A forecast from consulting firm Beacon Economics predicts that property tax revenue in the state will fall 6.1 percent in the next fiscal year, which runs from July 1 to June 30, 2010. The following year will see a 3.6 percent decline, followed by a more modest 0.8 percent drop, it predicts. Only in 2012-13 will property tax revenues rise again and then only by 1 percent, Beacon projects.
Sounds like that's a market bottom call for California housing values. Hat tip to Scott for pointing out the story.
--Lauren Beale
Thoughts? Comments?
| Photo: A foreclosed home for auction in Moreno Valley. Credit: Francis Specker / Bloomberg News |