News item from the Daily News via LA Biz Observed: "The median price of a San Fernando Valley home in June fell 34 percent
from a year earlier, which was the record-high ($655,000). The price
dropped 4 percent from May, and is now nearing 2004 levels."
More data, from the Southland Regional Assn. of Realtors:
--In the San Fernando Valley, sales of existing homes fell 3.6% from June 2007 levels, and remain at the lowest levels for June in 24 years of SRAR statistics. Pending escrows are running 20.6% ahead of year-ago levels. Inventory -- 6,935 properties for sale at the end of June -- is up 1.6% from year-ago levels.
--In the Santa Clarita Valley, sales of existing single-family homes in June paced 11.2% ahead of year-ago levels, while the median price fell 25.6%, to $450,000. That's a decline of $193,000, or 30%, from the record level of $643,000 in April 2006. Inventory -- 1,940 active listings -- is down 16.4% from June 2007 levels.
Worth noting: Citing dropping inventory, SRAR officials say they believe "further steep price discounts are unlikely" in the Santa Clarita Valley: "Real estate is extremely local, with the Santa Clarita Valley far better off than other, harder-hit areas of the state, especially those that had large numbers of new home tracts aimed primarily at first-time home buyers," said Jim Link, chief executive officer of the SRAR.
Doreen Chastain-Shine, president of the SRAR's Santa Clarita Valley division, added, "No doubt that foreclosures and short sales are up and there are still current homeowners at risk of losing the property. But the pressure on prices is not nearly as great as buyers assume simply because there are not nearly enough active listings to force sellers or banks to accept steep discounts."
--Peter Viles
Your thoughts? Comments? E-mail story tips to peter.viles@latimes.com
Photo Credit: Ventura Boulevard in Sherman Oaks, via L.A. Times.
Could it be the bounce in market activity that many of you have predicted? And if it is, what does it mean?
News item: Median sales prices for existing homes in the San Fernando Valley rose by 5% from January to February, and the number of single-family home sales also showed a slight increase, according to the Southland Regional Association of Realtors.
Not necessarily a full-fledged bounce, but a sign of life. More numbers: The median sales price for existing single-family homes jumped from $500,000 in January to $525,000 in February. That's still a decline of 13.9% over the past year, but it's the first month-to-month increase since August.
The number of closed escrows rose slightly, from 323 in January to 358 in February. That's still a decline of 31.9% from year-ago February levels, but it is an improvement from the annual declines registered in December (51.6%) and January (43.2%).
So, is this a sign the market is beginning to hit bottom, or a false bottom/head fake/bear trap/dead cat bounce? Your comments shortly, but first analysis from Jim Link of SRAR: "If you're a real estate optimist, you'd say we hit bottom and this is the turn. I'd say the numbers indicate we are either at or near the bottom. I don't think we're going to see a major increase in activity and I don't think we're going to see major increases in prices, but I think we are at a point where we're going to see more transactions as buyers take advantage of prices that are at levels we haven't seen in the past few years, and historically low interest rates."
Two other insights from Link: His recollection of previous downturns is that market activity usually increases before prices hit bottom. He also points out that one cause of extreme sluggishness in the market is the snail's pace at which foreclosed houses are being sold -- not necessarily because they are poorly priced, but because the administrative process of selling foreclosed houses is more complicated than in the past, and banks and lenders have yet to streamline it.
Now, your thoughts and comments. E-mail story tips to peter.viles@latimes.com.
 News item from the Daily News: "The median price of a San Fernando Valley home plunged a record $113,000 in January from a year ago and sales sank to an all-time low as credit and foreclosure problems further pounded the market, a trade association said Wednesday."
At $500,000, median sales prices in the Valley have now fallen a staggering 23.7% since peaking at $655,000 last June. That's 23.7% in seven months.
More: "Still, prices would have to fall further to make them affordable and turn around the sluggish sales market, said Daniel Blake, director of the San Fernando Valley Economic Research Center at California State University, Northridge. 'I'm still not seeing a light at the end of the tunnel,' Blake said."
Hat tip: Brad Greenberg
Thoughts? Comments? E-mail story tips to peter.viles@latimes.com
Photo credit: Aerial view of Ventura Boulevard in Sherman Oaks, from L.A. Times.
 News item from the Daily News: "Foreclosures more than tripled last month in the San Fernando Valley, with the sub-prime loan crisis creeping into higher-priced neighborhoods, a research center said Wednesday."
More: "The 324 percent jump in foreclosures equated to 534 families losing their homes because of delinquent mortgage payments, said the San Fernando Valley Economic Research Center at California State University, Northridge. ... 'It's basically people who took out mortgages where they used a partial-pay option and now they are getting (interest rate) resets and can't afford the new price,' said Daniel Blake, the center's director."
Thoughts? Insights? E-mail story tips to peter.viles@latimes.com.
Photo credit: AFP/Getty Images
 Good afternoon. Headlines, highlights and lowlights from the Southland Regional Association of Realtors' press release on 2007 home sales in the Valley:
--The number of homes sold in 2007 dropped 34.9% from 2006 levels.
--Sales of single-family homes in December 2007 were down 51.6% from December 2006 levels.
--Median price of homes sold in December '07 was $480,000, a decline of 14.3% from the December '06 median of $560,000.
--Total 2007 sales, of 6,271 single-family homes, is well below the previous low -- 7,774 in 1992. Annual Valley sales in this cycle peaked at 13,878 in 2003.
"Sales are down and prices are soft, but people have to be shaken out of their attitude that prices will plunge dramatically," said Mary Funk, president of the SRAR. "I just do not think resale prices will go down nearly as much as some people believe. There is no bell that goes off when the market hits the top or bottom of the cycle, so anyone who needs a home and is waiting to catch a steal may be disappointed and may miss an opportunity."
Added Jim Link, the association's CEO, "... there are too many prospective buyers who think prices should be much, much lower, and think they can snag a super bargain."
More: SRAR stats show that, in the last housing slump, median single-family sales prices in the Valley peaked at $245,000 in Nov. 1989, and bottomed out six years later, at $155,000, in Nov. 1995 -- a decline of 37% spread over 72 months. Prices did not bounce off the bottom quickly -- they remained at or near $155,000 for 15 months.
In this housing slump, median single-family sales prices in the Valley peaked at $655,000, in June 2007, and fell to $537,000 by December -- a decline of 18% in six months.
The two cycles appear to be very different. In the previous cycle, prices peaked 15 months after sales peaked, and then declined gradually for six years. In this cycle, prices peaked 60 months after sales peaked, and have declined rapidly. I'm not entirely sure how much is to be gained from looking at the two cycles side by side, except to make note of the differences.
Your thoughts? Comments? E-mail story tips to peter.viles@latimes.com
Photo credit: Warner Center, by L.A. Times
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