Westside weakness? One reader sees it

Look carefully at the photo, there is a quiz below.

One of the most popular topics on this blog is the debate over what will happen to prices in higher-cost neighborhoods.  To date, they have generally held their value better than greater Los Angeles, and have not suffered large numbers of foreclosures. That said, reader e-mail from "Someday the Ants Will Eat Grasshoppers":

"Your readers keep asking why the prices are holding up on the high end Westside properties. I’m not sure what they’re looking at, but I have been tracking prices in Westwood, lower Brentwood, Santa Monica (north of the 10), and Pacific Palisades every day for past 3 months. I look at every house for sale under $2M with 3 bedrooms or more, and I look every day. Really.

"Here are the relevant numbers (calculated from my daily Redfin downloads for those neighborhoods and that price range):
"The average number of listed homes dropping their asking price per day: 1.15
"The average size of any one price drop when it occurs: $53,090.90
"The average drop across all 50-60 properties meeting the search criteria per day: $1,017.58
"Ratio of new homes being listed to homes being sold: 3.48.

"So…Westside sellers are constantly dropping asking prices, and often in large amounts (the largest I saw since Feb was $400K). New properties are being listed for sale over three times more often than listed properties are selling. With asking prices for these sub $2M properties dropping about $1K per day, only the very rich would want to buy now. I mean, if you are in that market, that’s like putting $30K per month in your pocket just for waiting.

"People have observed that comps are not lowering. However, the average selling price is about $200K less than the average asking price in these neighborhoods right now. The comps are slow to decline simply because there are very few sales right now. No one (with good reason) seems to be buying. Eventually the transactions will happen, and the comps will adjust. Everyone needs to be patient, although frankly, I wish someone would buy now and then to help accelerate the lowering comps.

"I hope you run this story (or at least selected parts of it), because many of the high earners in your fan club get less attention, and certainly less sympathy, about the difficulty of getting into the market. They deserve to know that their lot will change, too, and their hard work and patience will pay off. Life is fair."

Thanks, Someday.
Now, as promised, the quiz. The house pictured is a 993-square foot, 3-bedroom, 1-bath in the 90405 ZIP code of Santa Monica.The current Zillow Zestimate is:
a) $599,000
b) $714,000
c) $805,000
d) $917,000
e) $1.06 million

Your thoughts? Guesses? Email story tips to peter.viles@latimes.com
Photo Credit: L.A. Times

Loft overload in Marina del Rey?

How many brand-new lofts and condos is too many? San Diego knows the answer to that question; will Los Angeles find out? Blogger Sybil's Star takes a stroll in Marina del Rey, takes along her digital camera, takes a bunch of pictures of new construction, and asks, "Another real estate disaster in the making?"

Our take: We should know the answer already from San Diego's condo glut, but why can't new construction condos simply be rented out if they don't sell?  And does renting constitute a disaster, or just a disappointment, to the builders and financers?  We're interested in your thoughts on that.

Thoughts? Comments? Any condos near you that suddenly took down the "for sale" sign and put up the "luxury rentals available" sign?
Photo Credit: http://sybilstar.blogspot.com