Tracking 90066: A Mar Vista short-sale lingers

I like to track Mar Vista prices and trends as a proxy for the sub-$1-million Westside market. My gut is that if and when there is going to be real weakness in the Westside market, it will show up in the $600,000 to $800,000 price range first, in ZIPs such as 90066.

That said, I bring you two Mar Vista anecdotes, saying two very different things about the market. The picture at right says the market is weakening: a short-sale listing at 3258 Rosewood. Tiny house -- 900 square feet on a small (4,800 square feet) lot; sold in 2005 for $725,000, now listed for $599,000; and sitting on the market at that price since mid-August.

Here's the other side of the coin: A tear-down at 12706 Stanwood, which sold earlier this month for $832,000. That's the tear-down price. Essentially $832K for the lot. An average-sized lot for the neighborhood, in the 5,000- to 6,000-square-foot range. No view to speak of. To me, that's not consistent with a weak market.

That said, here are the numbers, from Redfin, for 90066:

Date                              Oct. 6       Oct. 29

-- Listed for sale             106            163
(home and condos)
-- Foreclosures for sale       4                6
-- Median list price        $795,000    $719,000
-- Median sales price*    $757,000    $655,000
-- Median sales price/sf   n/a            $476
- -Median days listed        63.5            72
-- % reduced in price        34.8%          39.7%
-- Median total reduction   6.6%            6.5%

*Based on homes sold or taken off the market in the previous 90 days

-- Peter Viles

Your thoughts? Comments? E-mail story tips to Peter Viles.
Photo: L.A. Land

Tracking L.A.: Mar Vista 90066

Last week I linked to some Redfin stats about the overall L.A. housing market, and asked for some reader suggestions on which Zip codes I should begin tracking. Here's the first of three or four: Mar Vista 90066, a corner of the city of Los Angeles just east of Venice and just south of Santa Monica.

Pictured listing: 12677 Dewey St.

A three-bedroom, 1 1/2-bath home measuring 1,269 square feet. Located on a breezy hill about two miles from the beach, but close to the (noisy) Santa Monica Airport. From the listing: "Close to everything and cool ocean breezes. Motivated seller- Submit all offers."

Listing history:
Listed    7/29  $779,000
Reduced 8/23 $749,000
Reduced 9/22 $729,000

Sales history: Sold for $235,000 in May 1994.

More on 90066, from Redfin:

Date                              Oct. 6

--Listed for sale             106
(home and condos)
--Foreclosures for sale       4
--Median list price        $795,000 
--Median sales price*    $757,000
--Median days listed        63.5
--% reduced in price        34.8%
--Median total reduction   6.6%

*Based on homes sold or taken off the market in the previous 90 days

Once again: I'd like to monitor two other pricey Zip codes -- in the $700,000 range. I'm thinking one in the west Valley and one in the Pasadena area. Nominations? Thoughts?

--Peter Viles

Photo credit: L.A. Land

The Mills Act difference: Tax savings in historic* Mar Vista

How much can you save in taxes if you buy a home in a historic overlay zone?  Quite a bit, judging by the marketing of this restored midcentury home designed by architect Gregory Ain.

The Mar Vista house is listed at $1.1 million, but, according to marketing materials, "The house is protected under the Mills Act, which provides property tax
assessed value of $189,000."

Details, for those curious about the house: Three bedrooms, one bath, single-story at 3500 Beethoven St., one of 52 houses in a historic overlay zone. The overlay zone consists of tract homes Ain designed in 1948  on Beethoven, Moore and Meier streets between Palms and Marco in Mar Vista (see map).

Personally, I've always liked this neighborhood -- the single-story homes sit back nicely from Beethoven Street, and it's a quiet, tree-shaded block.  But $1.1 million is a lot for homes in the 1,100-square foot range that were originally designed "to promote home ownership among modest-income families," according to the city's Office of Historic Resources.

*Yes, "Historic Mar Vista" is a joke.

Your thoughts? Comments? E-mail story tips to peter.viles@latimes.com
Photo: 3500 Beethoven Street.Credit: L.A. Land

Westside weakness? One reader sees it

Look carefully at the photo, there is a quiz below.

One of the most popular topics on this blog is the debate over what will happen to prices in higher-cost neighborhoods.  To date, they have generally held their value better than greater Los Angeles, and have not suffered large numbers of foreclosures. That said, reader e-mail from "Someday the Ants Will Eat Grasshoppers":

"Your readers keep asking why the prices are holding up on the high end Westside properties. I’m not sure what they’re looking at, but I have been tracking prices in Westwood, lower Brentwood, Santa Monica (north of the 10), and Pacific Palisades every day for past 3 months. I look at every house for sale under $2M with 3 bedrooms or more, and I look every day. Really.

"Here are the relevant numbers (calculated from my daily Redfin downloads for those neighborhoods and that price range):
"The average number of listed homes dropping their asking price per day: 1.15
"The average size of any one price drop when it occurs: $53,090.90
"The average drop across all 50-60 properties meeting the search criteria per day: $1,017.58
"Ratio of new homes being listed to homes being sold: 3.48.

"So…Westside sellers are constantly dropping asking prices, and often in large amounts (the largest I saw since Feb was $400K). New properties are being listed for sale over three times more often than listed properties are selling. With asking prices for these sub $2M properties dropping about $1K per day, only the very rich would want to buy now. I mean, if you are in that market, that’s like putting $30K per month in your pocket just for waiting.

"People have observed that comps are not lowering. However, the average selling price is about $200K less than the average asking price in these neighborhoods right now. The comps are slow to decline simply because there are very few sales right now. No one (with good reason) seems to be buying. Eventually the transactions will happen, and the comps will adjust. Everyone needs to be patient, although frankly, I wish someone would buy now and then to help accelerate the lowering comps.

"I hope you run this story (or at least selected parts of it), because many of the high earners in your fan club get less attention, and certainly less sympathy, about the difficulty of getting into the market. They deserve to know that their lot will change, too, and their hard work and patience will pay off. Life is fair."

Thanks, Someday.
Now, as promised, the quiz. The house pictured is a 993-square foot, 3-bedroom, 1-bath in the 90405 ZIP code of Santa Monica.The current Zillow Zestimate is:
a) $599,000
b) $714,000
c) $805,000
d) $917,000
e) $1.06 million

Your thoughts? Guesses? Email story tips to peter.viles@latimes.com
Photo Credit: L.A. Times

Still flipping in Mar Vista

A quickie: This listing for a 3-bedroom on Rose Avenue in Mar Vista caught our eye because the price -- $799,000 -- is on the low side for that street. We found the description interesting, because it's evidence that someone still thinks there's money to be made in quick flips on the Westside:

"Unspoiled original with a great floor plan and a large lot. 3 bedrooms and 1 1/2 baths & a separate laundry room. Bring your owner that wants to remodel and live in it or bring your contractor looking to flip."

Your thoughts? Comments? E-mail story tips to lalandblog@yahoo.com.
Photo Credit: MLS via Trulia

Mar Vista Hill back under $1 million

Good morning. Westside Bubble reports there are a now a few listings on Mar Vista Hill for under $1 million.

We can imagine your response: Do you mean to tell us that houses on Mar Vista Hill were selling for more than $1 million? Yes, they were; some still are. The point of the Westside Bubble post is that prices are slipping a bit.

Example: 3 bed, 2 bath house at 3046 Mountain View Ave., asking $925K, was originally listed before 1/30/07 at $1,099K.

We've written before that we find these neighborhood price milestones worth monitoring. When prices ran past these milestones during the bubble ("You can't find anything on Mar Vista Hill for under $1 million anymore!"), these hyper-local rules of thumb became part of the bubble mentality.

Your thoughts? Any barriers being broken in your neighborhood? E-mail story tips to lalandblog@yahoo.com.
Photo Credit: Westside Bubble

Little house near the freeway

No, this is not about the Little House ON the Freeway, this is about a little house aboutthisclose to the freeway.

Westside Bubble has been watching this 3-bedroom listing in Mar Vista for a while -- back in February, it was listed at $725,000 and the listing noted, "freeway close." Roger that.

It's almost October, the freeway is still close, the price has been cut to $679,000, and the listing now reads, in part: ""This light and bright home sits high on a knoll affording privacy. ... The 405 expansion/sound wall is almost complete. ... VERY motivated Seller!!..."

Comments? Email story tips to lalandblog@yahoo.com.
Photo Credit: Westside Bubble

Beware of hostile tenants

Good morning. In a softening market, you see some weird listings, like this one that Westside Bubble spotted:

"This 3 bed/2 bath house at 4250 Beethoven St., asking $839K, tells quite a story in its description: "Soon to be in Foreclosure! This price is based on short sale approval. The house was built new from the foundation up in 2005. Travertine flooring throughout living room and kitchen. Mahogany hardwood floors in the bedrooms. Excellent opportunity. Hostile tenant, DO NOT DISTURB. SHOWINGS WITH ACCEPTED OFFER ONLY."

There's a lot going on here. A flip that flopped? Anybody want to help fill in the blanks?
Photo Credit: Westside Bubble

West Side Story: Would You Believe 59 Offers On a Single House?

We've written often about how the LA market is mixed, with real strength in pockets, notably the Westside. But this report from Santa Monica Realtor Chris Clark really caught our eye: "How's the Westside market?," he asks. "Would you believe that 59 offers were submitted on a house with a list price of $1,195,000? It sold on 4/27/07 for $1,552,000! A listing of mine opened escrow Monday, 5/14/07 after 13 offers were written on it. I've had buying clients face multiple offers and steep competition since March."

Chris, a bit of a numbers-cruncher, says he has counted 685 homes sold on the West Side this year, and 257 of them sold in 21 days on the market or less. "After working with both buyers and sellers this year where multiple offers have once again seemed to be the norm as opposed to the exception, this data is overlooked by the nay-sayers." I would say he is correct on that count.

He also sees many cases where houses were priced on the low side in order to invite multiple bids. He counts 49 houses that sold in 21 days or less, and for above the listing price. The average listing price of those: $1.62 million; average sales price: $1.74 million.

These are the areas Chris included in his data crunching: Westwood, Brentwood, West Los Angeles, Venice, Marina del Rey, Mar Vista/Palms, Santa Monica, Pacific Palisades, Culver City, and Westchester.

Comments? Don't Hesitate. Send story tips to lalandblog@yahoo.com.
Photo Credit: Postcard by www.legendsofamerica.com

On the Caravan: Five Houses in Mar Vista

MAR VISTA -- LA real estate brokers get the first look at new listings on Tuesdays in what's known as "brokers' caravan" -- a series of broker-only open houses that let brokers and agents shop in advance on behalf of buyers, and sniff out pricing trends on behalf of sellers.  Hoping to take the pulse of the market in various ways, LA Land tagged along with Judy Sheller and Jeff Pantanella of Bizzy Blondes.  For fun, I added Zillow.com's estimated values of the homes.  1) 12326 Stanwood Drive: $849,000 for a plain-Jane 4-bedroom, 2-bath house that "just fell out" (translation: was in escrow, deal fell through, is now available again).  Note: This is a Bizzy Blonde listing.  Judy's comments: one of the lowest prices on Mar Vista Hill; problem: close to Centinella Avenue and noisy traffic. House has been on and off the market for four months.  Judy: "That's a loooooong time." Zillow.com "Zestimate": $1.113 million.  2) 13224 Lake Street: $1.445 million for a 2700-square foot, 4-bedroom, 3-bath total remodel.  Kidney-shaped pool.  Judy, looking at a large walk-in closet: "Oooh. It's got a closet I could like!"  Zillow.com "Zestimate": $836,000 (likely prior to remodel).  3) 13049 Appleton Way: $939,000 for a totally remodeled, 1,490-square foot, 2-bedroom, 2-bath; Bizzy Blondes has the listing.  LA Land notices very cool, private, outdoor shower.  Judy: "We think we've priced it for multiple bids."  Zillow.com "Zestimate": $1.067 million.  4) 3425 Greenwood Avenue: $2.395 million for 3,200-square foot, 4-bedroom, 4 1/2 bath "stunning new modern."  No shoes in the house, please, not on the "rift white oak" floors.  Beautiful house, but $2.4 million is a lot of money for Mar Vista. Judy: "Wow, this is cool!"  Later, though, remarks that the 6,000-square foot lot is on the small size for that price.  Zillow.com "Zestimate": $1.049 million (likely the estimated value of house that was torn down).  5) 3665 Stewart Avenue (pictured above): $1.077 million for a 1,920-square foot, 4-bedroom, 3 1/2 bath on a 3,478-square foot lot.  Judy: "Small lot.  That's the biggest complaint.  For that kind of money, people want a yard."  Zillow.com "Zestimate": $1.029 million.  Comments, thoughts? On Mar Vista, on the homes above, on Zillow.com?  On the neighborhood you'd like to see profiled next Tuesday?  Use the comment button.