Westside weakness? One reader sees it

Look carefully at the photo, there is a quiz below.

One of the most popular topics on this blog is the debate over what will happen to prices in higher-cost neighborhoods.  To date, they have generally held their value better than greater Los Angeles, and have not suffered large numbers of foreclosures. That said, reader e-mail from "Someday the Ants Will Eat Grasshoppers":

"Your readers keep asking why the prices are holding up on the high end Westside properties. I’m not sure what they’re looking at, but I have been tracking prices in Westwood, lower Brentwood, Santa Monica (north of the 10), and Pacific Palisades every day for past 3 months. I look at every house for sale under $2M with 3 bedrooms or more, and I look every day. Really.

"Here are the relevant numbers (calculated from my daily Redfin downloads for those neighborhoods and that price range):
"The average number of listed homes dropping their asking price per day: 1.15
"The average size of any one price drop when it occurs: $53,090.90
"The average drop across all 50-60 properties meeting the search criteria per day: $1,017.58
"Ratio of new homes being listed to homes being sold: 3.48.

"So…Westside sellers are constantly dropping asking prices, and often in large amounts (the largest I saw since Feb was $400K). New properties are being listed for sale over three times more often than listed properties are selling. With asking prices for these sub $2M properties dropping about $1K per day, only the very rich would want to buy now. I mean, if you are in that market, that’s like putting $30K per month in your pocket just for waiting.

"People have observed that comps are not lowering. However, the average selling price is about $200K less than the average asking price in these neighborhoods right now. The comps are slow to decline simply because there are very few sales right now. No one (with good reason) seems to be buying. Eventually the transactions will happen, and the comps will adjust. Everyone needs to be patient, although frankly, I wish someone would buy now and then to help accelerate the lowering comps.

"I hope you run this story (or at least selected parts of it), because many of the high earners in your fan club get less attention, and certainly less sympathy, about the difficulty of getting into the market. They deserve to know that their lot will change, too, and their hard work and patience will pay off. Life is fair."

Thanks, Someday.
Now, as promised, the quiz. The house pictured is a 993-square foot, 3-bedroom, 1-bath in the 90405 ZIP code of Santa Monica.The current Zillow Zestimate is:
a) $599,000
b) $714,000
c) $805,000
d) $917,000
e) $1.06 million

Your thoughts? Guesses? Email story tips to peter.viles@latimes.com
Photo Credit: L.A. Times

Open House: Culver City

We popped into five Open Houses today in Culver City, where we heard two very bullish accounts of the local market. Rachelle Rosten of Colwell Banker told us, "Good houses, priced well, sell. And there are still a lot of buyers out there."

Bruce Forman, also of Coldwell Banker, told us, "The Culver City market is accelerating in terms of prices. What we're dealing with is a supply and demand issue. The people who ordinarily would be leaving Culver City for better neighborhoods aren't leaving because the neighborhood is getting better."

4235 Keystone Ave. 90232 (pictured): Very pretty but small (998 SF) 2 bedroom 1 bath, lots of sunlight, spacious yard with patio. On the market two days, $749,000. Sales history from Zillow.com: sold 11/97 for $251,500.

4212 Vinton Ave. 90232: Built in 1939, 2 bedroom 1 3/4 bath, 1229 SF home, hardwood floors, "lots of potential" per MLS description, which means it has not been renovated. Designed by Helen Young, female builder known for custom touches and solid construction. Listed in late May at $855,000, sellers are sticking with their number.

4390 Elenda St., 90230: 3 bedroom, 1 bath, 1133 SF, livable but needs work. Small back yard is all dirt. Elderly owners died, home being sold in trust sale. $719,000, sealed bids due by Aug. 27 at 5 pm.

10812 Braddock Dr., 90230: 4 bedroom, 2 bath, 1783 SF on 5100 SF lot; big house for the neighborhood, but back yard is small. On market 51 days, originally listed at $949,000, reduced to $899,000. Recent sale info from Zillow.com: Sold 5/02 for $447,000.

4128 Lincoln Ave., 90232: Newly built 3 bedroom, 3 1/2 bath townhouse, 2200 SF, huge gourmet kitchen, sweeping staircase, 3-car garage. $1.079 million.