It's 2004 in Manhattan Beach

Median price figures can be skewed by the types of homes that are sold. For example, the median price in a city could go up if a greater share of homes sold were larger, more expensive ones -- even if those same pricey homes sold for much less than they would have at the peak of the market.

For that reason, comparing sale prices of homes to their previous sale price is a more accurate way to capture what's happening in the market. The Manhattan Beach Confidential blog has done just such an analysis. There are enough homes in that city that sold between 2003 and 2006, and were sold again in 2009, that the blog was able to put together a database.

Ten Manhattan Beach houses sold in 2005 were sold again this year. Two broke even, eight others sold for less, often hundreds of thousands of dollars less. The median sale price in MB thorough September this year was $1.46 million, compared with $1.5 million in 2004, the blog says.

Homes sold in 2004 that were sold again this year, however, generally sold for a mark-up. You can read the full report on real estate, with spreadsheets, here.

-- Peter Y. Hong

Signs of life in Southern California's housing market

Southern California’s housing market took another small step toward recovery in September as the median sale price for homes in some areas rose above last year’s levels – the first such increase since the market crashed.

The median price paid for all homes in six Southern California counties in September -- $275,000 -- was unchanged from August and 11% below the same month last year, according to San Diego-based MDA DataQuick.

But in Orange County, the median home sale price last month of $429,000 rose modestly from $425,000 the same month a year earlier -- the first year-over-year gain since 2007, DataQuick said. If condominium sales are excluded, last month’s median home sale price in San Diego and Ventura counties also beat their September 2008 levels.

Christopher Thornberg, a Los Angeles economist who was an early predictor of the housing bubble, said several factors converged last month to give home sales a boost. "Tax breaks, low interest rates and pent-up demand added up to create a surge in sales that’s surely gone some way in stabilizing prices,” he said.

But Thornberg cautioned that prices could fall again.

“The question continues to be, how is this going to stand up when the next wave of foreclosures hits the market?” he said.

Even if the housing market takes another hit in the coming months, Thornberg said, the bulk of the market correction is past.

“If prices do fall again, it’ll be another 10% to 15% max,” he said.

The Southern California median price remains at 2002 levels, even without considering inflation, and is 46% below its peak level of $505,000 set in several months of 2007.

Those relatively low prices pushed the number of homes sold in September up 5% over the same month last year, and 0.2% above August. Home sales in the past year picked up first in the lowest-priced inland areas, where massive foreclosures pulled prices down.

Last month’s sales, with a rising median price over last year in some areas, show the mix of homes sold is normalizing. Sales of homes priced at or above $500,000 were 21% of the total, up from 13% in January, DataQuick said.

-- Peter Y. Hong

Housing market may be stabilizing, Lennar chief says

Though home builder Lennar Corp. had a rough third quarter, its executives seem to be seeing the light at the end of the tunnel for the company and for the housing market.

Chief Executive Stuart Miller launched his review today of the company’s third-quarter performance with several minutes about the general economy.

“We’re gaining confidence that we’re getting much closer to the end of this housing-led downturn,” he said. “A combination of low prices, lower interest rates and government incentives have worked to pique the interest of primary buyers and dispel the taboo about home purchases that has deterred so many from the market.”

Lennar divisions have seen an increase in traffic and general consumer confidence as the sales and pricing plunge has slowed or stabilized, Miller said.

But, he said, the future is still murky: Ongoing foreclosures continue adding to inventory, mortgage rates are fluctuating and tax credit programs are potentially nearing their end. Upswings in unemployment and gas prices continue to pose a downside risk.

“By no means would I suggest that housing is out of the woods and recovered,” he said. “To the contrary, many important headwinds remain.”

But the market, he said, “feels materially better than the absolute hopelessness that had existed for so long.”

Home buyers are gradually taking advantage of prices made affordable by the recession, Miller said. If the economy stays relatively stable, executives predict, the company will be profitable by next year.

Average U.S. closing costs fall; San Francisco grabs the No. 4 spot

The average cost of getting a mortgage dropped about 12% nationwide over the last 12 months, according to a new study by Bankrate Inc.

Nationwide, the average closing fees on a $200,000 mortgage, with 20% down and a 30-year fixed-rate loan, totaled $2,732, down from $3,118 in 2008, the study found. Closing costs for home buyers haven't been this low since 2007, the survey said.

San Francisco had the 4th-highest closing costs in the United States, with average expenses of $3,117, a decline of 6% from $3,321 in 2008, the study said. Last year, San Francisco was ranked 11th in the survey, Bankrate said.

New York had been the most expensive state for closing fees for four consecutive years, with Texas holding steady in second place, the study said. But, in the most recent study, the two states switched spots.

On a $200,000 mortgage, closing costs in Texas averaged $3,855, the survey said. Closing fees in New York averaged $3,408, the study said.

Nevada was the cheapest state for closing costs with an average of $2,276.

The decline in closing costs for home buyers is a testament to the downward price shift in the real estate market, Bankrate said.

Researchers chose ZIP Codes in the largest cities of each state, analyzing the closing costs for a $200,000 home mortgage to figure out their averages, the survey said.

California was the only state to be broken in two for the study -- San Francisco and Los Angeles, Bankrate said. Average closing fees in Los Angeles came in at $2,861, which was good for the 14th spot. That's down 12% from $3,250 in 2008.

Bankrate's survey includes lenders' origination fees and title and settlement fees. Taxes, insurance, homeowners association dues or prepaid items weren't included in the study.

-- Nathan Olivarez-Giles

Photo: A recently sold home in San Francisco. Credit: Getty Images

Atherton, Calif., comes in second on Forbes most expensive ZIP Codes list

94027 -- it's the second most expensive ZIP Code in the country, home to the town of Atherton, and it's right here in California.

The median asking price in Atherton, which is in the Bay Area, over the last 12 months was $3.85 million, despite a 23% decline over that time, according to Forbes magazine's 500 Most Expensive ZIP Codes list.

Alpine, N.J.'s, 07620 ZIP Code topped the list with a median asking price of $4.14 million. Like Atherton, prices in Alpine dropped 23% over the Last year, Forbes said.

California is represented well in the list's top 10 priciest ZIP codes: Duarte, Beverly Hills, Rancho Santa Fe, Santa Barbara and Los Altos Hills all make the list, taking the number four through eight spots with prices hovering around $3 million.

Coming in third was New York's West Village neighborhood, 10014, which Forbes said is now fully gentrified and hitting a $3.5 million median asking price. The West Village had a 24% decrease over the last year, the list said.

On average, the 500 ZIP Codes on the Forbes list dropped 7% in asking price. Only one-fifth of the country's most expensive ZIP Codes saw prices rise, and in a few of those ZIP Codes, prices were skewed by a single high-priced listing, Forbes said.

Here are the top 10 most expensive ZIP Codes, by median home price, as reported by Forbes:

1. 07620, Alpine, N.J., $4,139,041
2. 94027, Atherton, Calif., $3,849,133
3. 10014, New York, N.Y., $3,521,514
4. 91008, Duarte, Calif., $3,444,773
5. 90210, Beverly Hills, Calif., $3,367,167
6. 92067, Rancho Santa Fe, Calif., $3,362,493
7. 93108, Santa Barbara, Calif., $3,284,652
8. 94024, Los Altos Hills, Calif., $3,277,500
9. 10065, New York, N.Y., $3,176,534
10. 07926, Brookside, N.J., $3,121,115

Check out Forbes full list, complete with an interactive map comparing ZIP Codes.

-- Nathan Olivarez-Giles

California backlog of unsold homes drops as July home sales rise, Realtors group reports

California’s backlog of unsold homes declined in July as sales increased, the California Assn. of Realtors said today.

The group's Unsold Inventory Index for existing, single-family detached homes in July stood at 3.9 months, indicating the amount of time needed to unload the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate, the Realtors group said in its monthly sales and price report. A year earlier the index was 6.9 months.

The median amount of time it took to sell a house was 39.9 days, down from 47.8 days for the same period last year, the report said.

A total of 553,910 existing homes, at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, closed escrow in July, the report said. Statewide, home resale rates were up 8.1% from June and 12% from a year earlier, it said.

The Realtors group also reported a median sales price in California of $285,480 for existing homes sold last month, up 3.9% from June but down 19.6% from July 2008.

-- Nathan Olivarez-Giles

Friday Funnies featuring Timothy Geithner's bathroom

There are some shocking findings in this "Daily Show" investigation of the housing crisis. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner's judgment is shown to be suspect with his bathroom remodel as proof. Ever-gracious Yale economist Robert Shiller is interviewed in the piece. He attempts to be fair in his assessment of Geithner's performance, but can't hold back when he sees the ghastly shower tiles.

Hat tip to Calculated Risk for earlier reposting the video for those of us who go to bed long before Jon Stewart is on.

-- Peter Y. Hong

Foreclosure-heavy Inland Empire weighs on California home prices

California's median home sales price rose 4% in May, nudged up by an increase in sales of higher-priced homes, MDA DataQuick reported today.

The statewide median sale price was $230,000 in May, up from $221,000 in April. That's a 52% drop from the state's peak median price of $484,000 in 2007.

Despite the bump in higher-end sales, foreclosures still comprised 51% of May sales.  

Looking at the Southern California sales numbers released Wednesday, we see that in May, San Bernardino and Riverside County posted 7,548 home sales.

So of the 39,051 homes sold statewide in May, one out of five were in the foreclosure-heavy Inland Empire.

The news release isn't posted on DataQuick's website yet, but keep checking.

-- Peter Y. Hong

L.A.-area prices down 40% from peak

U.S. home prices were down 18% in February from a year earlier, according to the Case-Shiller index released today. In L.A. and Orange counties, February prices fell 24% from a year ago and are off 40% from their 2006 peak.

How low will they go? Economist Christopher Thornberg has forecast L.A. prices to fall 55% from their peak. The folks at Case-Shiller, accentuating the positive, note this is the first time in 16 months the national decline was NOT a record fall.

-- Peter Y. Hong

Case-Shiller: L.A./O.C. home prices down 39% from peak

     It's another record-breaking decline for the 20-city Case-Shiller index of home prices. Nationwide, prices were down 19% in January from a year ago. In the Los Angeles/Orange County area, prices dropped 26% from a year ago, reported in the Times today.

     Case-Shiller also splits markets into price tiers: high, low and middle. In the L.A. area, high-end prices were down 29% from their peak, but the low end is down 50%, while the mid-priced range is down 40%. 

     The low end was certainly hit harder by foreclosures and subprime lending. High-end areas tend to lag in real estate cycles, though, so there could be more room to fall in the top end.  

     The Case-Shiller index is favored by some over median sales prices to measure market changes. It compares sales of homes to their previous sales and factors in changes to the properties like remodeling.

     It uses an index number rather than prices. An index score of 100 is equivalent to January 2000 prices. The L.A./O.C. index for January 2009 is 166.54, down 39% from its 2006 peak.

— Peter Y. Hong