Sale prices of existing homes fall in eight of 10 metro markets in third quarter [Updated]

Prices of existing homes fell in 80% of the nation’s metro markets in the third quarter as distressed sales -- foreclosures and short sales -- accounted for nearly a third of all deals, a national group said this morning.

The national median sale price for an existing single-family home was $177,900, an 11.2% drop from the same period a year earlier, according to the National Assn. of Realtors in Washington. Distressed sales continued to weigh on prices despite a popular tax credit fueling the volume of deals.

Last week President Obama signed an extension of the $8,000 credit for first-time buyers and added a $6,500 extension of the tax break for those homeowners looking to trade up.

During the third quarter, 123 of 153 metropolitan areas reported lower median sale prices for existing single-family homes in comparison with the third quarter of 2008, while 30 areas had price gains.

Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the Realtors group, said shrinking inventories of homes had helped to moderate price declines this year, but many economists worry that another wave of foreclosures could hit the market and again push prices down.

Median prices ranged from $61,400 in the Saginaw-Saginaw Township North area of Michigan to $566,000 in the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara area of California. No. 2 was San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont at $538,100, followed by the Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine area at $498,800.

[Update] The median home price in the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana metro area fell 11.5% to $345,600 in the third quarter.

And in case you were interested in sales volume, the Realtors group also reported today that total existing-home sales, including single-family and condo, increased 11.4% in the third quarter to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.3 million units from 4.76 million units in the second quarter, and are now 5.9% above the 5.01 million-unit pace in the third quarter of 2008.

-- Alejandro Lazo

Photo: Rows of houses in Las Vegas. Credit: Bloomberg

Redfin announces sale prices in real time, uh, maybe

The online brokerage Redfin announced a cool new tool for those interested in SoCal real estate prices. The Seattle-based online brokerage is now posting closed-sale prices and photographs for houses in a variety of big real estate markets as soon as the listing broker marks the property as sold.

The new version of the company’s website integrates data from the local databases that brokers use to take properties on and off the market, according to a release by the company this morning. The upgrade added 9.6 million photos for 1.4 million recent property sales with an average of more than 100 data fields on the property’s features.

Michael Smedberg, chief of of Redfin’s query and statistics team, says the upgrade will allow consumers to do their own comparative analyses of homes that were previously the purview of real estate agents.

“Comparative Market Analyses are one of the real estate industry’s ‘killer applications,’ ” Smedberg said in today's release, “but they're often shrouded in mystery; agents have direct access to data such as prices and photos for just-sold homes, but buyers rarely do. Without that direct access, consumers have had to rely on the expertise and availability of their agent, and this in turn made it hard to figure out on their own what to offer or ask for a listing.”

The company also announced that it has added trackbacks to its site, which will allow bloggers to automatically link to Web pages featuring properties.

Test run: It appears that Redfin’s site is groaning under the load of its new features. All morning the home page has had this message: “We're working hard to bring you a better Redfin. The site is unavailable for a brief time while we update our service. Please check back in a few minutes.”

Redfin Chief Executive Glenn Kelman just confirmed in an e-mail that the site keeps crashing for “the first time in a year or maybe two” and that we should hold off on our posting. Whoops. Too late.

-- Alejandro Lazo

S&P/Case-Shiller weighs in with August home prices

Home prices are inching up from previous months, according to a story at latimes.com:

U.S. home prices appear have to scraped a bottom, with a leading national index showing three consecutive months of gains this summer.

The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index of home prices in 20 metropolitan areas showed a 1% increase in the seasonally adjusted median price of homes from July to August. The index has posted month-to-month gains since June.

But is it really an improvement or a blip on the radar screen? Michael D. Larson, a housing analyst with Weiss Research, offered his perspective:

Housing market analysts cited the federal government's $8,000 federal tax credit for first-time buyers as an important factor in the housing market's recovery of late. The credit applies to home sales that close through Nov. 30 and is part of the $787-billion federal stimulus package enacted in February.

Larson of Weiss Research said that while the credit played an important role, the most significant factor driving the housing market was the relative affordability of homes.

"The real question is what happens now," he said. "You are going to see some give-back, you are probably going to see a pause in the recovery. But I think the fundamental story is that housing got way too expensive and now you could argue that housing is cheap again and that is what it boils down to in 50 words or less."

As for the local scene:

Los Angeles area prices in August improved 1.3% over July on a seasonally adjusted basis. The median price was down 12% when compared to the same month a year earlier. Home prices in San Diego rose 1.5% on a seasonal basis from July but fell 8.9% when compared to August 2008.

I'm hesitant to put too much stock in those monthly price increases. California still has a way to go before its unemployment and economic woes are over.

--Lauren Beale

Thoughts? Comments?

 

California home prices and sales rose in September, Realtors say

California home prices and sales edged higher in September from the previous month as shoppers took advantage of low interest rates and a federal tax credit for first-time homebuyers, the state's Realtors group said today.

The California Assn. of Realtors reported that the statewide median price of an existing single-family home increased 1.1% in September compared with August and declined 7.3% compared with a year earlier. September home sales increased 0.6% from August and 2.1% from September 2008, the group said.

The median home price increase for September marked the seventh consecutive such rise, said the association’s chief economist, Leslie Appleton-Young. Appleton-Young attributed the increase in part to this year's $8,000 federal tax credit for first-time buyers.

The credit applies to home sales that close through Nov. 30 and is part of the $787-billion federal stimulus package enacted in February.

The housing industry has been pushing to extend or expand the credit. But a deficit-wary White House has been less eager to do so given the estimated $1-billion monthly cost.

Last week, Treasury Inspector General J. Russell George threw the effectiveness of the program into further question, testifying before Congress that the program had attracted as many as 90,000 ineligible claimants -- including a 4-year-old child. In all, tax credit claims totaling more than $600 million are suspicious, tax officials told Congress.

Some economists that follow the housing market question whether this summer’s apparent recovery is genuine.

Christopher Thornberg, principal of Los Angeles-based Beacon Economics, said the increase in September sales reflected the end of a heady summer fueled by the tax credit and historically low interest rates enacted by the Federal Reserve last year to combat the financial crisis.

“We know that over the summer, housing got a kick in the rear end because of artificially low interest rates, an artificial surge in demand because of the first-time buyer credit, and an artificial blockage of foreclosed units because of all of the Hope for Homeowner plans,” Thornberg said. “What all of these things has done is create a temporary bottom in the housing market -- with the key word being 'temporary.'”

The association said the median price of an existing, single-family detached home in California during September was $296,090, compared with the $292,960 median in August. In September 2008, the median was $319,310.

The group said sales of existing single-family homes in California totaled 530,520 in September at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate. That compares with the revised 519,530 sales pace recorded in September 2008.

-- Alejandro Lazo

Calculated Risk: Housing outlook is 'uncertain'

For those of you who aren't regular followers of the Calculated Risk economics blog, here's a link to CR's Thursday post in which he characterizes the housing market's future as "uncertain."

As many call a housing market bottom, CR contends foreclosure delays and possibly shaky loan modifications are constricting the supply of homes that should otherwise be on the market. On top of that, CR sees demand being inflated by the home-buyer tax credit and FHA loans. The two also work together, with some buyers using their $8,000 tax credit as a down payment when purchasing with an FHA loan -- thus having no skin in the transaction.

He predicts another downturn in house prices next year, but says prices at the low-end have in many places bottomed. Read the full post on the uncertain housing market here.

-- Peter Y. Hong

Signs of life in Southern California's housing market

Southern California’s housing market took another small step toward recovery in September as the median sale price for homes in some areas rose above last year’s levels – the first such increase since the market crashed.

The median price paid for all homes in six Southern California counties in September -- $275,000 -- was unchanged from August and 11% below the same month last year, according to San Diego-based MDA DataQuick.

But in Orange County, the median home sale price last month of $429,000 rose modestly from $425,000 the same month a year earlier -- the first year-over-year gain since 2007, DataQuick said. If condominium sales are excluded, last month’s median home sale price in San Diego and Ventura counties also beat their September 2008 levels.

Christopher Thornberg, a Los Angeles economist who was an early predictor of the housing bubble, said several factors converged last month to give home sales a boost. "Tax breaks, low interest rates and pent-up demand added up to create a surge in sales that’s surely gone some way in stabilizing prices,” he said.

But Thornberg cautioned that prices could fall again.

“The question continues to be, how is this going to stand up when the next wave of foreclosures hits the market?” he said.

Even if the housing market takes another hit in the coming months, Thornberg said, the bulk of the market correction is past.

“If prices do fall again, it’ll be another 10% to 15% max,” he said.

The Southern California median price remains at 2002 levels, even without considering inflation, and is 46% below its peak level of $505,000 set in several months of 2007.

Those relatively low prices pushed the number of homes sold in September up 5% over the same month last year, and 0.2% above August. Home sales in the past year picked up first in the lowest-priced inland areas, where massive foreclosures pulled prices down.

Last month’s sales, with a rising median price over last year in some areas, show the mix of homes sold is normalizing. Sales of homes priced at or above $500,000 were 21% of the total, up from 13% in January, DataQuick said.

-- Peter Y. Hong

Housing market may be stabilizing, Lennar chief says

Though home builder Lennar Corp. had a rough third quarter, its executives seem to be seeing the light at the end of the tunnel for the company and for the housing market.

Chief Executive Stuart Miller launched his review today of the company’s third-quarter performance with several minutes about the general economy.

“We’re gaining confidence that we’re getting much closer to the end of this housing-led downturn,” he said. “A combination of low prices, lower interest rates and government incentives have worked to pique the interest of primary buyers and dispel the taboo about home purchases that has deterred so many from the market.”

Lennar divisions have seen an increase in traffic and general consumer confidence as the sales and pricing plunge has slowed or stabilized, Miller said.

But, he said, the future is still murky: Ongoing foreclosures continue adding to inventory, mortgage rates are fluctuating and tax credit programs are potentially nearing their end. Upswings in unemployment and gas prices continue to pose a downside risk.

“By no means would I suggest that housing is out of the woods and recovered,” he said. “To the contrary, many important headwinds remain.”

But the market, he said, “feels materially better than the absolute hopelessness that had existed for so long.”

Home buyers are gradually taking advantage of prices made affordable by the recession, Miller said. If the economy stays relatively stable, executives predict, the company will be profitable by next year.

Average U.S. closing costs fall; San Francisco grabs the No. 4 spot

The average cost of getting a mortgage dropped about 12% nationwide over the last 12 months, according to a new study by Bankrate Inc.

Nationwide, the average closing fees on a $200,000 mortgage, with 20% down and a 30-year fixed-rate loan, totaled $2,732, down from $3,118 in 2008, the study found. Closing costs for home buyers haven't been this low since 2007, the survey said.

San Francisco had the 4th-highest closing costs in the United States, with average expenses of $3,117, a decline of 6% from $3,321 in 2008, the study said. Last year, San Francisco was ranked 11th in the survey, Bankrate said.

New York had been the most expensive state for closing fees for four consecutive years, with Texas holding steady in second place, the study said. But, in the most recent study, the two states switched spots.

On a $200,000 mortgage, closing costs in Texas averaged $3,855, the survey said. Closing fees in New York averaged $3,408, the study said.

Nevada was the cheapest state for closing costs with an average of $2,276.

The decline in closing costs for home buyers is a testament to the downward price shift in the real estate market, Bankrate said.

Researchers chose ZIP Codes in the largest cities of each state, analyzing the closing costs for a $200,000 home mortgage to figure out their averages, the survey said.

California was the only state to be broken in two for the study -- San Francisco and Los Angeles, Bankrate said. Average closing fees in Los Angeles came in at $2,861, which was good for the 14th spot. That's down 12% from $3,250 in 2008.

Bankrate's survey includes lenders' origination fees and title and settlement fees. Taxes, insurance, homeowners association dues or prepaid items weren't included in the study.

-- Nathan Olivarez-Giles

Photo: A recently sold home in San Francisco. Credit: Getty Images

Atherton, Calif., comes in second on Forbes most expensive ZIP Codes list

94027 -- it's the second most expensive ZIP Code in the country, home to the town of Atherton, and it's right here in California.

The median asking price in Atherton, which is in the Bay Area, over the last 12 months was $3.85 million, despite a 23% decline over that time, according to Forbes magazine's 500 Most Expensive ZIP Codes list.

Alpine, N.J.'s, 07620 ZIP Code topped the list with a median asking price of $4.14 million. Like Atherton, prices in Alpine dropped 23% over the Last year, Forbes said.

California is represented well in the list's top 10 priciest ZIP codes: Duarte, Beverly Hills, Rancho Santa Fe, Santa Barbara and Los Altos Hills all make the list, taking the number four through eight spots with prices hovering around $3 million.

Coming in third was New York's West Village neighborhood, 10014, which Forbes said is now fully gentrified and hitting a $3.5 million median asking price. The West Village had a 24% decrease over the last year, the list said.

On average, the 500 ZIP Codes on the Forbes list dropped 7% in asking price. Only one-fifth of the country's most expensive ZIP Codes saw prices rise, and in a few of those ZIP Codes, prices were skewed by a single high-priced listing, Forbes said.

Here are the top 10 most expensive ZIP Codes, by median home price, as reported by Forbes:

1. 07620, Alpine, N.J., $4,139,041
2. 94027, Atherton, Calif., $3,849,133
3. 10014, New York, N.Y., $3,521,514
4. 91008, Duarte, Calif., $3,444,773
5. 90210, Beverly Hills, Calif., $3,367,167
6. 92067, Rancho Santa Fe, Calif., $3,362,493
7. 93108, Santa Barbara, Calif., $3,284,652
8. 94024, Los Altos Hills, Calif., $3,277,500
9. 10065, New York, N.Y., $3,176,534
10. 07926, Brookside, N.J., $3,121,115

Check out Forbes full list, complete with an interactive map comparing ZIP Codes.

-- Nathan Olivarez-Giles

California backlog of unsold homes drops as July home sales rise, Realtors group reports

California’s backlog of unsold homes declined in July as sales increased, the California Assn. of Realtors said today.

The group's Unsold Inventory Index for existing, single-family detached homes in July stood at 3.9 months, indicating the amount of time needed to unload the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate, the Realtors group said in its monthly sales and price report. A year earlier the index was 6.9 months.

The median amount of time it took to sell a house was 39.9 days, down from 47.8 days for the same period last year, the report said.

A total of 553,910 existing homes, at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, closed escrow in July, the report said. Statewide, home resale rates were up 8.1% from June and 12% from a year earlier, it said.

The Realtors group also reported a median sales price in California of $285,480 for existing homes sold last month, up 3.9% from June but down 19.6% from July 2008.

-- Nathan Olivarez-Giles