Valley home sales surge as prices drop

Santa Clarita Valley home sales were up 78% in October compared with the same month last year, the Southland Regional Assn. of Realtors reports. In contrast with October's 296 transactions, January had a low of 99 sales and June 2005 set the high mark with 405 sales. Prices, down 22.5% from a year ago, were credited with fueling the October sales figures.

Meanwhile, the San Fernando Valley saw a 110.5% jump in sales in October from a year ago, with a 30.5% drop in prices of single-family homes from the same month a year ago. Those 745 sales represent a 4.5% increase from September. The low point was 323 sales in January. The trade group's statistics go back to the mid- to late 1980s.

-- Lauren Beale

Photo: The three-bedroom, two-bathroom home of 1,380 square feet at 2007 Chivers St., San Fernando, was listed at $339,900 in October 2008. It is now listed for $274,900, according to the website Redfin. Credit: Peter Viles

Comments

[Laker]

Lauren. I Think instead of saying: "..Valley home sales surge as prices drop"
You should have said: VALLEY HOME PRICE FREE FALL 30% AS SALES INCREASE.

I care less if there are two times more sales than this month last year. Last year the sales were almost zero so you would just assume there are enough knife catchers to but when prices decreased 30%...
But seriously, don't you agree that PRICE today is 70% of last years price is a much more important fact than the number of houses sold....I want to buy a house and pay as little as possible,Only Realtors are worries about sales volume as their commissions are defendant on it.

and btw: 2007 Chivers St is worth about $200,000. That is optimistic as it sold for that in Aug 2002...Unless a knife catcher or some specuvestor buys it, it will be listed again for $190,00 very soon.
I love the description: "Bank owned. Sold for $542,000 in 2006.",..... ahahaha LOL I have seen one house 3300 sf in prime Tarzana that "sold" for $1,4 Million in 2007. It sold last month for $600,000.....so?

[D]

Laker,

Why don't you go start your own blog, you could be your own favorite commentor.

All you need is word check. ;)

[BillyWen]

Well I guess they will be part of the foreclosure trend of 2013.. This market isn't going up anytime fast and jobs don't pop up from thin air. The housing trend is down and it's just at it's early stages. The survey conducted at ths site shows that over 95% believes home prices are due to go down this next coming year and beyond..

http://www.homepricetrend.com

[Kee Kee]

I live outside California but my young adult son lives in Orange County. He's paying $1200 a month rent. I'm liquid, own one house outright and have about $125,000 equity in another one. I thought it might be a good time to get into the California real estate market - as my son's landlord. With prices the way they are I thought at the most any mortgage would be slightly more than his rent at the most (with a %20 down payment which I would have in the $200,000 to $300,000 range).

I have contacted three real estate agencies and not one has given me a serious response - I even listed myself as pre-approved and did not provide any other qualifying information about my situation. One replied with the name of an agent and told me to contact her. Another sent an automated response - a week ago, and another did not even reply.

Is business booming out there or what? Unbeleivable. I inquired through the L.A. Times Real Estate link. So much for that.

[latesummer2009]

With the foreclosure market in full swing, there could be some good deals in the Valley right now. Soon the entire LA landscape will follow in it's footsteps.

Westsiders should prepare for this type of market.

http://www.westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[Laker]

D, I really typed the comment in a hurry. I apologize for the typos. Though some might look as grammar mistakes, they are really typos.Again, I'm sorry.

I have my own blog, but don't have the time to keep it updated. I started it by getting upset at the fraud sales / stupidity of sellers / funny sales facts. I also tracked the case shiller and added my prediction to it. I would update it soon, and post a link.

[sfvrealestate]

Lauren, I think another reason that sales have soared is that interest rates are so good.

[Lee Baca's son Chu]

So what does the crystal ball say? Will we have a big increase in sales in January because of people snapping up foreclosures. Or will it be a typical extremely slow Jan?

[Cal]

Lee Baca's son Chu: "So what does the crystal ball say?"

I think January sales will be pretty good considering all that is going on. January 2008 was the lowest sales month of any month on record so it will be trivial to beat that sales volume. But even going back historically it won't be the second, third, or fourth worst sales on record . This is because the mortgage servicers are continuing to drive the market and are staying motivated, cutting until they find the price that moves the home. So sales will be "OK", below historic average but not bad, and prices will continue to fall. Meanwhile agents will be screaming that foreclosures are getting multiple offers and selling over list not seemingly realizing that each sales is generally less than the one before.

The market in 2009 will continue to be one of distressed sales.

[Laker]

Cal wrote: "...foreclosures are getting multiple offers and selling over list not seemingly realizing that each sales is generally less than the one before...."

I agree 100%. I've been following some neighborhoods pretty closely. With special consideration to REO sales.
Every time a house comes to market, it is priced lower. Every time that i think there is a good deal, after the house sells (by ultimately a knife catcher), another house comes to market at even lower price. That is the main reason I did not buy yet, I would buy otherwise. I think that once i see a house that actually sells for (even) slightly more than the previous one (adjusted for improvements/quality) , I will know we hit some bottom. We are soooooo far from that point.

[TK Bruin]

Lauren, I don't think this is a balanced perspective.

I am sure that you realize that when the Assoc of Realtors gives you a quote, that they are trying to use you for free marketing.

Perhaps to balance this, you could point out the percentage of homes that sold because of foreclosure.

Sound reasonable?

[Lauren Beale]

TK Bruin: Very reasonable. It's the perspective and stat gathering of the trade group and there's no denying that. I've put the question to them and two other groups and will post whatever answers I get back.

[Anon]

October REO's made up about 46% of Valley sales and short sales were almost 11% of sales. The issue is actually worse than that because some valley agents don't set the right flag for their listings so there are some REO's unaccounted when looking for the flag. I estimate this to add about 2-3% more of REO sales.

I have the November stats but they are in flux because of late reporters but the percentages are increasing not decreasing.

[Lauren Beale]

As promised to TK Bruin, here are how some of the specific ZIP Codes in the two valleys fared:

Percent of houses and condos resold in October that had been foreclosed on during the prior 12 months

Zip // % foreclosure resale
91201 // 25.0%
91302 // 6.7%
91340 // 68.8%
91355 // 26.8%
91501 // 12.5%
Source: MDA DataQuick