Tracking Woodland Hills 91364

I trekked up the 101 to Woodland Hills this morning to have coffee with Laker* -- the frequent commenter -- and to discuss the housing market in his corner of Los Angeles, specifically Woodland Hills and Tarzana.

Laker, who rents a house in Woodland Hills, is looking to buy in the area, but is cautious, given that the economy is weakening and prices are still falling. He and his wife like the area for a variety of factors: It's their home, the schools are good, it's close to the 101, and it's an easy trip to Malibu beaches via Topanga Canyon. But it is pricey: Even after a historic housing slump, the median listing price in 91364 is $699,000.

Earlier this year, Laker says, "there was a huge drop in prices. There were a lot of investors here, a lot of spec houses were built. Prices dropped maybe 20% in six months." Now foreclosures are popping up in streets close to Ventura Boulevard.

Laker's looking for a 4-bedroom home in the $600,000 to $700,000 range. Ideal location for Laker's dream house? On or near Wells Drive, a gently curving, picturesque, tree-shaded road lined with white picket fences and flowering bushes that runs south of, and parallel to, Ventura Boulevard.  Many of the homes are discretely tucked behind hedges, like the one pictured above, at the corner of Wells and Natoma.

Pictured: 4766 Natoma Avenue, a 4-bedroom, 3-bath, 2,800-square-foot house on a third of an acre. Agent's description begins "Incredible celebrity home in Vista de Oro ... beautifully remodeled estate..." Includes pool and permitted apartment. Originally listed at $1.05 million, reduced to $999,000.

Look for more on Laker in a separate post.

More about 91364, from Redfin:

Date                              Oct. 21

--Listed for sale             267
(home and condos)
--Foreclosures for sale      30
--Median list price        $699,000 
--Median sales price**    $488,000
--Median sold price per square foot: $288
--Median days listed        79
--% reduced in price        32.9%
--Median total reduction   9.5%

*Laker is not his real name, of course, and he prefers to keep his identity private.

**Based on homes sold or taken off the market in the previous 90 days.

-- Peter Viles

Comments? Thoughts? I'm always in the market for more neighborhoods to profile, especially if you are willing to act as my local market guide.

Photo Credit: L.A. Land

Comments

[MyLessThanPrimeBeef]

Go ahead, just make an offer for $600K and see what happens, Laker. You never know.

[Laker]

MyLessThan,

The last offer i gave was around January 2008. It was a $500,000 on a place asking $869,000.... Yeah, I know this was low balling and back at January 08, was considered almost illegal...
Let me update you that they lowered the price to $730,000 and i think it is pending now at $630,000

[Uncle Billy, Deflated]

As long as we're on the topic of Woodland Hills, why is it the hottest part of the valley?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Woodland_Hills,_Los_Angeles,_California

It sounds so much better than "Girard." Where do you live? Girard....

[150 Multiple Choice Questions]

Geez, Pete, you never take me to coffee.

Laker, make the 600k offer. Actually, make the offer if you like the house. They may laugh at you, they may not. And if they do laugh at you, you just might hear from them in the not so distant future...

[TakeFive]

"I trekked up the 101 to Woodland Hills this morning to have coffee with Laker*"

Coffee's for Closers!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TROhlThs9qY

[Cal]

I didn't realize I was so close to greatness today.

Sure seems like the 600-700k range is going to feel some pressure from above come January 1st because of the dropping conforming limit.

Laker, don't you want the Funktacular 22727 Ia Ln?

Im more impressed that Laker found an agent willing to bid 500k on a 860k+ house.

[Valley Observer]

Why is Woodland Hills so hot? It's a long time since I studied climatology, but I believe it's the area's distance from the sea breeze. Being cool, the breeze hugs the ground, and comes mostly along the LA River, around Griffith Park, and then goes west and north through the Valley. If you play golf at Sepulveda Dam, you're aware of it. Woodland Hills and Chatsworth are farthest away, so if it gets there at all, it's late in the day. More ocean air comes through Sepulveda Pass (since the 405 Fwy cut through the hill at the top back around 1960 -- the trees in the canyon all bend over to the north), from Malibu Cyn via Calabasas, and from Simi over the hill to Chatsworth, but those are less significant.

[gman]

I hope an engineer and a teacher make enough money to buy a 700k home. Maybe they have about 150K in cash
G

[Laker]

Cal wrote: "...Im more impressed that Laker found an agent willing to bid 500k on a 860k+ house...."

Cal,
I was impressed too. But i guess when you need work. writing an offer and getting 3% of 500,000 is way better than getting 0. I think the agent was hoping for a offer - counter offer game. However, back then, the bank was not interested...

gman ,
When i look at places at $600-700K. Rest assure I'm all set for Fixed rate 30 year loan and have the 20% down payment waiting in an FDIC bank...The payment will be affordable.

[mark g]

good luck Laker, although I would say be very patient and wait at least another year...

[Cal]

Not a single house has sold in 91364 for 42% (the discount you were asking) under list price since 2007.

And nothing in middle brackets will sell at that large discounts, it is always stuff on the edge (either very high or very low).

15% you have a shot (not a great one, but a shot), going around lowballing 40%+ off of list is an ok way to find an investment property. But you aren't going to find a family home that way (imho).

Have your agent get you a download of all the sales in the area for the last 2 years, it will give you a better feel for what works and what doesn't.

[tew]

Based on the sales history and where we are in the cycle, it seems this could sell reasonably in the $700k - $800k range. So it seems a reduction of 20-30% is reasonable from asking.

Note: It sold for $500k at the top of the previous bubble in 1989. Now, 19 years later, it's listed for twice that - $1MM. If you figure the peak bubble price this time should be simply the inflation adjusted previous bubble price, then, taking inflation = 3%, this bubble's peak would be about $875k. We are certainly not at the peak of this bubble...

[Laker]

Cal,
I don't think i was in general asking 42% discount from listing.
I do however "ask" to get about 40% discount from last bubble/peak sales price.

Speaking about 4766 Natoma Avenue, there are couple of REO in that area. One sold couple months ago in the 700K range for nice size 2800 sf on a 18,000 sf flat lot. That was a fixer, but still helped to get the comps down a little.

[Cal]

Laker:"I don't think i was in general asking 42% discount from listing."

You were doing exactly that, whether you had a different value in mind or not. It is trivial for your agent to see what has sold and what offers have a realistic chance of getting accepted. Yours simply had as close to 0% chance as it comes. I'd say when an offer has a 10% chance of being accepted you aren't completely wasting your time. And that is around the 85% of list price mark. Lowballs are difficult in the median price range because it is the price range, usually, with the most volume.

[Derek]

I just found a website that displayed a page full of lists in Woodland Hills in the 400s and early 500s. Looks like your crimial low ball maybe wasn't so criminal. I remember in 1992 my parents build a 3.2 Million dollar house in Studio City. It was going to be the retirement sell of my dad's contractor career. A Japanese couple offer a staggering 1.7 M and we laughed them out of the hillside. 8 years and 100 showings later we finally sold for 1.2 M. Godda love history, these times seem awfully familiar! Here is the website with i found all those woodland hills properties: http://laforeclosurefinders.com/Woodland-Hills-Foreclosures.htm