L.A. County listing prices slip $3k, to $395,000

Median listing prices in Los Angeles County slipped by $3,000 over the past week, to $395,000, according to Housing Tracker's weekly analysis of MLS listings.

Numbers: The median listing price, at $395,000, is down 22.4% from year-ago levels. Inventory of for-sale homes and condos fell to 39,903, which is 15.4% below year-ago levels.

Confused by the numbers? Don't be. The other numbers floating around today are median sales prices, from MDA DataQuick, showing median sales prices in Los Angeles County slipping $20,000 from August to September, to $360,000. What you see below are listing prices.

Date              Median listing price                        Inventory

4/06               $579,666                                      27,251
4/07               $545,000                                      35,489
5/07               $545,000                                      38,297
6/07               $540,000                                      40,766 (up 20.4% y/y)
7/07               $535,000                                      42,685 (up 14.5% y/y)
8/07               $529,000                                      44,483 (up 13.6% y/y)
9/07               $520,000                                      46,414 (up 16.9% y/y)
10/07             $510,000                                      46,603 (up 15.6% y/y)
11/07             $499,900                                      46,503 (up 19.0% y/y)
12/07             $495,000 (down 10.0% y/y)           43,174 (up 28.2% y/y)
1/08               $479,900 (down 12.6%)                40,850 (up 33.3% y/y)
2/08               $475,000 (down 13.5%)                43,625 (up 38.3%)
3/08               $464,900 (down 15.5%)                42,098 (up 31.4%)
4/08               $450,000 (down 17.4%)                42,430 (up 16.7%)
5/08               $449,900 (down 17.4%)                42,532 (up 11.1%)
6/08               $440,000 (down 18.5%)                42,398 (up 4.0%)
7/08               $425,000 (down 20.6%)                44,636 (up 4.6%)
8/08              $410,000 (down 22.3%)                 42,279 (down 5.1%)
9/08              $399,900 (down 23.1%)                 42,553 (down 7.9%)
10/6/08         $399,000 (down 22.5%)                  40,137 (down 13.2%)
10/13/08       $398,000 (down 22.0%)                  40,093 (down 14.0%)
10/20/08       $395,000 (down 22.4%)                  39,903 (down 15.4%)

--Peter Viles

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Photo Credit: Getty Images

Comments

[Yearning For Home]

I see the 75th percentile stayed at $639,000. Unchanged for nearly two months. Grumble...

[Nick]

The important take-home, I guess, is that current median sales prices are about 9% below current median listing prices. It would be fascinating to see how they compare during various stages of RE cycles (alongside historical price changes), to see if there's a correlation between the ratio and the trend in price changes.

[shockg]

Inventory down 15.4%

[smrr]

shocktard welcome back. you can use majik jack phones much cheaper than the pay phone you've been working.

[It All Happens on the Margin]

shockg:

BFD. Like tracking the weather on the Titanic. "It's dropped 5 degrees!" Yeah, we know - we still hit a freaking iceberg.

[90039 newbie]

is "median listing price" really the best metric to measure the market's pulse, or perhaps just the most convenient?

Would "what have similar homes in my particular neighborhood/microclimate in a similar condition sold for in the past 30/45/60/90 days?" be a more accurate measurement, for level-headed investors who can tune-out the tailored-for teevee sound bite hype and keep their eyes on the prize?

Just sayin'

[el guapo]

I believe the 75% percentile is where the denial resides. The spread between asking and actual is widening (overall). The 75% percentiles are holding steady. It makes sense as they have been under stress for less time that the 25% percentile.

[SoCalJim]

I guess the simplistic inventory analysis posted by a certain few here means that people are picking up the low priced crumbs, but more expensive homes, like at the beach, are still sitting, and prices will continue to drop as we head into the ever busy "winter" season. Just wait for that inventory spike in the spring when all of the out of touch sellers think they can sell, when in fact the market hasn't changed or is worse. That will certainly support prices... coupled with higher mortgage rates. Oh yes, this is a bottom... Sure... I guess that is why we still see plenty of healty six figure folks come in and ask about short sales and foreclosures, and are even more depressed b/c of the stock market. Oh yes, bright times ahead when these people can't even afford their houses. We have a ways to go. Simple fact. Inventory numbers actually support that - even with fewer houses, prices are still dropping.

OC Register: Beach towns miss much of O.C. homebuying rebound October 21st, 2008

[Tim K.]

While the listing price is often quite misleading in down markets, because it includes lots of stagnant "wishing prices" of the sky high bubble years, it is still a useful metric. The reason is that while it probably overstates the actual sales prices that are occurring, it is also a reasonable measure of "seller sentiments" if you will. Obviously, sellers would like to think their houses are worth more than they are. But you shouldn't discount the numbers completely, because the downward trend does show that slowly, more sellers understand that they need to price lower. Mostly it's been bank foreclosures, but someone's gotta move first.

I still enjoy reading Redfin's neighborhood pages - they have wonderful graphs that overlay seller asking prices with actual sales prices, and it's always amusing to see how the sellers are maybe 1 year behind the buyers.

Off topic, but somewhat related - my prediction is that we're going to see another massive bank panic near the end of 2008 and early 2009. Remember all those alt-A and option arm loans that are about to reset higher? The peak is coming up in this next year, and I suspect that all of Congress and the Treasury's attempts to inject cash into the credit markets will run out of steam by then, which will induce *another* massive panic. That's why I believe the end of 2009 might actually see the start of desperation selling on the part of banks. Right now they're still trying to price their REOs a little too high.

[MyLessThanPrimeBeef]

Very interesting, the world nearly became extinct and yet, the sellers in LA merely lowered their asking prices by more or less $3K, median-wise.

Talk about a Teflon bunch, or more likely, disconnected from reality, like most Teflon guys and gals I know of.

[Jeff S]

Hey Shock -

Inventory UP 46% from 4/06.

Yeah, i guess we still have a lot of inventory.

And there will be a lot more apparently when the REOs come back in 90 days.

[Rational Renter]

"Inventory down 15%" - uh, not really. You're not counting the huge swath of houses the banks have sitting off the market, not to mention the thousands (?) of houses that would be in foreclosure right now except for the insanely unproductive California law holding that process off for two months.