As foreclosure flood ebbs, listing prices are flat for fifth week in a row

The lull continues: Median listing prices in Los Angeles County were flat for the fifth week in a row, and inventory of for-sale homes and condos dipped slightly, according to Housing Tracker's weekly analysis of MLS listings.

Numbers: Median listing price is unchanged at $399,000, a drop of 22.5% over the past year, and inventory dips 400 units to 40,137, a decline of 13.2% over the past year.

Two cents: The trend that most likely explains flat pricing in a declining market: The flood of cheap foreclosed houses coming onto the market has slowed dramatically, according to several Realtors who specialize in selling bank-owned houses. One possible factor is a new state law that draws out the foreclosure process, but it's not clear that the delays from that law have yet hit the market. Expect more slowdowns for several reasons, including Countrywide's partial foreclosure freeze as part of a larger loan workout program and IndyMac's new workout efforts.

Alternatively, you could argue that flat pricing means the market is no longer declining, though I don't yet buy that argument. Those would be your two cents, not mine.

Date              Median listing price                        Inventory

4/06               $579,666                                      27,251
4/07               $545,000                                      35,489
5/07               $545,000                                      38,297
6/07               $540,000                                      40,766 (up 20.4% y/y)
7/07               $535,000                                      42,685 (up 14.5% y/y)
8/07               $529,000                                      44,483 (up 13.6% y/y)
9/07               $520,000                                      46,414 (up 16.9% y/y)
10/07             $510,000                                      46,603 (up 15.6% y/y)
11/07             $499,900                                      46,503 (up 19.0% y/y)
12/07             $495,000 (down 10.0% y/y)           43,174 (up 28.2% y/y)
1/08               $479,900 (down 12.6%)                40,850 (up 33.3% y/y)
2/08               $475,000 (down 13.5%)                43,625 (up 38.3%)
3/08               $464,900 (down 15.5%)                42,098 (up 31.4%)
4/08               $450,000 (down 17.4%)                42,430 (up 16.7%)
5/08               $449,900 (down 17.4%)                42,532 (up 11.1%)
6/08               $440,000 (down 18.5%)                42,398 (up 4.0%)
7/08               $425,000 (down 20.6%)                44,636 (up 4.6%)
8/08              $410,000 (down 22.3%)                 42,279 (down 5.1%)
9/2/08          $400,000 (down 23.8%)                 42,081 (down 8.6%)
9/8/08           $399,999 (down  23.1%)                41,803 (down 9.9%)
9/15/08         $399,900 (down 23.1%)                 42,553 (down 7.9%)
9/22/08         $399,000 (down 23.1%)                 40,565 (down 12.3%)
9/29/08         $399,000 (down 23.1%)                  40,539 (down 12.4%)
10/6/08         $399,000 (down 22.5%)                  40,137 (down 13.2%)

--Peter Viles

Your thoughts? Comments? E-mail story tips to Peter Viles.

Comments

[Anthony]

At least the homes in the top quartile dropped $9,000, back down to $640,000. Not too bad.

[ry]

That doesn't jibe with the previous post, which says that foreclosures were up 9% in the 3rd quarter versus the 2nd quarter and up 196% versus 2007. I think it's noise in the data. With all the current bad economic news, I agree with Peter that the market should still decline at least for a little while.

[Tim Hebb]

This is the part where Wile E. Coyote is hovering, suspended in mid-air after speeding off the edge of a cliff. You know what happens next...

[James]

Countrywide may be slowing the foreclosure process, but for those with loans at other banks, the loan modification option is not out of reach. More people need to be educated on all of their options, including shortsales. James www.foreclosurerescueexperts.com

[Rational Renter]

25th and 75th percentiles were down sizably though.

[xtine]

Didn't Lauren Beale just report last night that LA foreclosures were up?

[keith]

Forget about the housing bubble, we're staring down both barrels of a full blown recession, now that's a value killer, just look at what happened during every recession we've had.

BUT THE WESTSIDE WILL NEVER KNOW A RECESSION< NEVER, NEVER, NEVER - right, Mike?

[Crash and Burn]

If you stop looking at the data every week (this is real estate not gasoline) and take a look at the data every three months, you'll see the reality.

[Alice]

Foreclosures are way down in my area, but I attributed that to the additional paperwork California now requires before an NOD can be filed. Don't they have to prove that they've tried to contact the owner and work something out before they can file NODs now?