Tracking L.A. prices: $700K range is slipping, slowly

Because so many of you are interested in what is happening to housing prices in more established and more expensive neighborhoods, I ran through a bunch of pricier ZIP codes last month, in a post titled "Sherman Oaks, Your Slip is Showing" (Prices were down 35% in the 91423 area of Sherman Oaks in July).

Today I re-ran the August numbers for the same 14 ZIPs, and calculated overall median price, and overall median price decline for the entire set of 14.

Area/ZIP                     July median/% change from '07     Aug. median/% change from '08
Sherman Oaks/91423      $750,000 / -34.8%                   $968,000 / +8.2%
West Hollywood/90046    $940,000 / -28.4%                   $765,000 / -36.3%
Stevenson Ranch/91381  $650,000 / -23.5%                   $717,000 / -23.5%
Northridge/91326           $625,000 / -18.8%                   $566,000 / -25.5%
La Crescenta/91214        $619,000 / -15.3%                   $599,000 / -14.1%
Agoura Hills/91301         $870,000 / -12.5%                    $735,000 / -18.4%
Arcadia/91006               $698,000 /  -11.6%                    $775,000 / -6.3%
Torrance/90503             $693,000 / -10.6%                     $608,000 / -21.1%
L.A./Mar Vista/90066    $810,000 / -8.7%                       $697,000 / -16.5%
Pasadena/91104            $621,000 / -6.5%                       $585,000 / -10.0%
L.A./Westchester/90045 $693,000 / -5.8%                     $700,000 / -6.5%
Woodland Hills/91364      $726,000 / -3.2%                     $593,000 / -23.4%
Redondo Beach/90278      $755,000 / +4.6%                    $620,000 / -22.3%
Arcadia/91007                 $930,000 /  +3.6%                   $848,000 / +13.5%

Median                            $710,000 / -11.1%                  $698,000 / -17.4%

As you can see, the median of these medians is lower in August. I'm fairly certain this is not a particularly valid statistical analysis, but I throw it out there nonetheless for your discussion. Many of you have suggested I drop these median home prices in this kind of analysis, and switch to price per square foot -- which has certain advantages, and certain disadvantages. Thoughts on that?

--Peter Viles

Comments

[150 multiple choice questions]

I think the most important #'s are #homes sold trends and # homes for sale trends...

Where I live the median is up this month y-y after being way down last month y-y, but the # of homes sold is ~50% less than the last few years and the #of homes for sale is ~ 3x higher than the last few years. Those tell us where we're headed.

[depressed in LA (wish i didnt have to stay)]

is the spike in sherman o. from july to august 08 an anomaly (like a few $$$ houses south of the blvd)?

.....sick to my stomach about the bailouts

[fezco]

This makes perfect sense. Those that are 'well to do' will continue to be fine and home prices will continue to climb in those areas, I regretfully predict. This is a typical separation of the rich and poor since Paulson, Greenspan, and the other backroom lovers are bailing out the rich. Welcome to the fiefdom! All we need now are walls around these zip codes and some moats.

[TWillie]

Peter: Where did you find the Aug #s? TWP

[MyLessThanPrimeBeef]

It is well known that gravitational anomalies exist on the surface of the planet - some places it's weaker and some stronger.

Now, Sherman Oaks may just be, I repeat, just maybe, now remember freedom of speech, we are still a democracy, even though we are no longer capitalistic, perhaps Sherman Oaks is one such place. So, I wouldn't recommend it, if water flowing upwards is not your kind of thing.

[N_C]

Do both! square feet and median sales prices

[mbob]

Oh give me charts, lots of charts, where the data and beliefs collide,

don't fence me iiiinnnnn....

[Wes Boudville]

Peter,

I think your table column "Aug. median/% change from 08" should say "07" at the end instead of "08".

[latesummer2009]

Price per square foot would be more helpful at this stage of the mortgage meltdown. Available credit is now skewing median price data. It would appear, that people are definitely getting more for their RE dollar these days.

http://www.westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[El Guapo]

May I recommend dollar volume transacted per zip YOY?

[patient_vulture]

How can Arcadia/91007 be $930,000 / +3.6% July 07-08, then $848,000 / +13.5% Aug 07-08??
It goes down -$82,000 (-9%) in Aug medians over July (year to year), yet you post a +13.5% increase for Aug medians?

??

[patient_vulture]

Another note about medians that isn't taken into account: Properties that have been upgraded, by flippers, etc. A extreme example is that house in Los Feliz on the Bravo show Flipping out. He bought it at $800k, put a good $500k+(?) into it, complete rebuilding the whole house, and sold it 1 year later for $1.5m to a famous actor/star. That will skew medians in that zip up. My guess is that house, if sold 1 year later untouched, would have sold at a loss.

[John in Palms]

If you really want to create a good thermometer, you should build an index model -- just like they do on Wall St.! Encompassing ---

--median price
--price per sq. foot
--average months properties are listed
--how far under/over their listing

[Ron Burd]

Can anyone answer this? We started looking for a house
last week. 91311 area. Most of the sales ovet hte past 6 months have been at or near listing price. Many have been over the listing price.
I would expect to see many below list sales.

Our agent also told us that the market is pretty good, They have multiple offers on several hiomes and that sale are really picking up now.