Home sales in the Santa Clarita and San Fernando valleys

Does this support the notion that what goes up must come down?

The Southland Regional Assn. of Realtors' recent monthly tally showed a 3.5% increase in the number of Santa Clarita Valley home sales in July compared with June. The 237 existing single-family home closings represented a 22.2% increase from July a year ago.

Sales prices, of course, were another matter altogether. The group's statistics showed the median fell 22.8% to $399,000 in July 2008 from $517,000 in July 2007.

Although foreclosures and short sales still have to work their way through the market before prices can recover, there appears to be more sales movement afoot. Pending escrows were up 33.9% in July from the same month last year.

Meanwhile the San Fernando Valley saw similar trends in the resale market in July,  with sales up 6.9% from June and up 16.2% from a year ago. But there was a more dramatic price drop: The single-family median sales price of $435,000 was down 31% from July 2007.

   

-- Lauren Beale

Your thoughts? Comments?

Photo: Jeff Barnard / Associated Press

Comments

[Cal]

While we have definitely hit the bottom for the SFV as far as sales, this isn't a tremendous bounce back it is in fact the second worst year on record for single family home sales. With tremendous churn in the pending ratio it will be interesting to see the final year end tally, I am guessing maybe 7-9% above the previous worst year on record (which happens to be 2007). The churn (lots of houses going pending then falling back out) and the fact that escrows are taking longer makes pendings seem higher and inventory lower. You simply can't compare pendings in a time of stated income and 24 hour lender turn around times with a time filled with short sales and lenders going over their borrowers paperwork with a fine tooth comb.

There is merely easy yearly (the Alt-A part of the credit crunch which swallowed Countrywide started in July of last year) comparisons and blessedly (for the Realtors at least) lots of foreclosures otherwise we would have an even deeper and longer sales lull than was seen from August '91 forward. I would be more worried that a 31% drop in median price for home sales only barely brought home sales above their previous historic low. A healthy market this is not, sales bottom has been reached, but it is foreclosures and short sales that are driving the market.

I think we will see a fast sales drop off in September (August numbers will be lower but not dramatically so) and beyond as the selling season ends. Foreclosures will still try to drive volume though which means we should see some more dramatic price drops.

Condos are hard to compare since there is a lot more condos now than was in the early 90's. Their sales haven't hit the lows of 90's but they won't be seeing any sales rebound either. Their sales will just be in the doldrums as the weak developers die on the vine and existing condo sellers watch as buyers bypass them and go buy a home instead.

Only low prices can solve the sales volume problem but then that creates new problems for those who weren't smart with their money and decided to participate in the boom. It will take a long time to flush these bad loans and overleveraged borrowers through the system.

[inaweofe]

Cal makes some really good points and I agree with them for the most part. The only thing that is lacking in his arguement is that flavor that E brings to the table. No where in his comment are words like "Loanowner", "Homedebtor" or "Realtard". Cal...really if you are going to make rational and inspired comments could you at least pepper them with some insults and spitefull remarks aimed at the stupid..you know kool aid drinkers?

[Amazing_Happens]

I don't really care about the year-over-year trend numbers, what's interesting to me is that sales are up 6.9% from last month, and that median home prices are UP 1% from last month! We know that things are worse than last year, but if you're trying to track the bottom for prices, wouldn't it be better to look at the month-to-month numbers to get some indication of the current direction of sales and prices?

[D]

Where's the Santa Clarita's a horrible place to live and they're the next Lancaster comments. You people are sleeping on it.

[Cal]

inaweofe : "Cal...really if you are going to make rational and inspired comments could you at least pepper them with some insults and spitefull remarks aimed at the stupid"

lol, all the good insults are taken at this point all I am left with is facts and numbers.

Amazing_Happens:"if you're trying to track the bottom for prices, wouldn't it be better to look at the month-to-month numbers to get some indication of the current direction of sales and prices"

Home sales are highly seasonal so comparing monthly sales and price is wrong (for example, compare a February to March and it will look like home sales are going to go to the moon). Year over year is the proper metric as you will have much less seasonal variance.

[westham]

nah amazin,
you're ignoring or unawares of the macro factors. this dump-hole economic collapse is in the 2nd inning. i don't care if your inventories drop 50% one month and your median price goes up 15%, This is a lonnnnnnnnng term collapse. Don't be the loser in vegas who thinks his luck has changed after losing 5K, because he won a round at th $1 table. Short term is nothing. This thing doesn't fully unwind until 2020 and half of so-cal is wearing barrels and suspenders like the old time depression-era funny pages in the free newspapers.

[Laker]

".... Mary Funk, president of the Association. “Demand is increasing because people realize that what they could not afford before they probably can afford now. Come next year, people who are waiting will find that they will be paying more....”
The greatest Realtard fool in SFV is this Funk lady. she is saying that next year people will be paying more??????
What a moron. Prices in the SFV are at least 30-40% above incomes. That means with super optimistic view that there will be no over correction, price still need to fall another 30% by minimum. that will happen at least towards the end of 2009 or most likely 2010.

"....Because buyers are striving to take advantage of a rare opportunity to buy a single-family home at a favorable price,...."

2004 is a favorable price??? Are you comparing it to 2006-7 hayday prices based on free mortgage for anybody????
How about the price in 1997?? These were much closer to be affordable.

sometimes I'm amazed by the level of sheer stupidly and straight face liars that are running that clown show called NAR/CAR/SRAR. What type of a drek organization is that? Absolutely ZERO credibility.
Please.....

[Nick]

Re: timing the bottom via m/m changes

The problem with this approach, generally speaking, is that you run the substantial risk of misinterpreting seasonal patterns or temporary fluctuations as signs of a bottom. Unless you're very careful to correct for seasonal patterns and outside factors, you can come to inaccurate conclusions; and it's very hard to account for all the possible outside factors. For example, if a large bank is holding shadow inventory for accounting level 3 asset purposes pending a bailout, and that's skewing reported inventory numbers, you may get a bad conclusion. Generally speaking, it's better to look at the longer-term averages.

Besides, most reasonably competent and unbiased economic observers agree that the bottom is likely to last a while, and the market be flat-ish for at least a year after it gets there. Why would you run the risk of trying to guess the start of the bottom, when the bottom is likely to be easily observable during the flat period?

[Tony]

I read the following on the jsmineset website, run by Jim Sinclair. Can anyone verify or dispel his following comment? This also may account for the increases in sales.
---

"In the statistics a foreclosure results in two home sales. The first is when the house is foreclosed on and the second is when it is disposed of. The deed changes twice therefore each foreclosure will result in two home sales statistically."

[inaweofE]

Well, don't worry folks. E is probably interpreting the data as we speak. The insightful and elegant prose is sure to follow at any moment. E is diligently at his desk in his apartment crunching the numbers as we speak. Once the figures are tabulated his decree along with the usual slams aimed at the kool aid drinkers, loanowners, helocers, slavestodebt etc, etc; will grace the internet.

E, are you listening? What should we do? Hurry,it's wednesday... I have to wax the wheels on my hummer and polish my refi-boat.

[Cal]

Tony,

Dataquick, who looks at public records, removes trustee sales from its statistics.

http://dqnews.com/RRStatChg070214.aspx
" Intra-family transfers are not included, nor are foreclosures until a home is re-sold to a new buyer. "

Realtor groups don't monitor trustee sales in their stats which are based on the MLS (those sales are done at the courthouse steps and not through the MLS).

It is an oft repeated myth. Any quoted statistic regarding existing home sales has trustee sales (house reverting back to the lender) removed.

Also, stop listening to gold bugs, it'll do you no good.

[Milla]

inaweofE is awesome.

[inaweofE]

Milla,

It is not I that is awesome, as you so succintly put it. It is E that is awesome. Without E and his wit where would we be? I know you bought a house and like it, even though E did his best to dissuade you from it, his insight is the voice of the people...so stop being happy about your home. Yes I know Laker pointed out the whole bmw/toyota thing the other day and that makes lots of sense since your house could have 100k miles on it by the time you want to sell it...wait I guess that doesn't makes sense. See...that's why E is awesome.

E, seriously...where are you? We need the decree, stat!