Listing prices dip another $1,000

Housing Tracker reports that median listing prices in Los Angeles County have slipped another $1,000 over the past week, and are now down $160,000 from their bubble peak.

Numbers: Housing Tracker's analysis of MLS listings shows median listing prices dropped to $419,000, and now trail year-ago levels by 20.9%. The inventory of for-sale houses and condos continues to drop, falling to 42,812, a decline of 2.7% from year-ago levels.

Date              Median listing price                        Inventory

4/06               $579,666                                          27,251
4/07               $545,000                                          35,489
5/07               $545,000                                          38,297
6/07               $540,000                                          40,766 (up 20.4% y/y)
7/07               $535,000                                          42,685 (up 14.5% y/y)
8/07               $529,000                                          44,483 (up 13.6% y/y)
9/07               $520,000                                          46,414 (up 16.9% y/y)
10/07             $510,000                                          46,603 (up 15.6% y/y)
11/07             $499,900                                          46,503 (up 19.0% y/y)
12/07             $495,000 (down 10.0% y/y)           43,174 (up 28.2% y/y)
1/08               $479,900 (down 12.6%)                40,850 (up 33.3% y/y)
2/08               $475,000 (down 13.5%)                43,625 (up 38.3%)
3/08               $464,900 (down 15.5%)                42,098 (up 31.4%)
4/08               $450,000 (down 17.4%)                42,430 (up 16.7%)
5/08               $449,900 (down 17.4%)                42,532 (up 11.1%)
6/08               $440,000 (down 18.5%)                42,398 (up 4.0%) 
7/7/08           $425,000 (down 20.6%)                44,726 (up 5.2%)
7/14/08         $425,000 (down 20.6%)                44,636 (up 4.6%)
7/21/08         $424,000 (down 20.7%)                43,584 (up 0.8%)
7/28/08         $420,000 (down 20.8%)                43,086 (down 1.4%)
8/4/08           $419,000 (down 20.9%)                42,812 (down 2.7%)

--Peter Viles

Your thoughts? Comments? E-mail story tips to peter.viles@latimes.com

Comments

[shockg]

Inventory down, prices flat and sales volume going up up up!!

[Laker]

shock is telling us that we are going to get priced out tomorrow. down 20.9% year over year in prices...and price are flat?
shock, you alway call me with names and argue about my motives.
Now, what are your motives??? Why are you so excited and energetic trying to convince potential buyers to buy???
Are you a good Samaritan? Or is there any agenda?

I think you gotta be a RE agent. Am i correct?

[Rational Renter]

This week's drop means that the median only has a further 34.4% to fall. Median will settle around $275,000 to satisfy fundamentals. For more info on that math, check out the blog link in my name.

[WG]

shockg, you're still posting under that name. You got run off the OC blog due to your repeated bad predictions that the RE market wasn't nose diving. Looks like you're at it again. Inventory down, hardly and thats not including shadow inventory, and prices are'nt flat, they dropped another thousand in one week, and the majority of sales are distressed. You are either a unemployed realtor or you are ignorant of facts.

[Seller]

That's because people like me who bought in '01 (when prices were mildly insane, not stratospheric) are getting out now while there's still equity left.

[IToldu2CashOut]

Optimistically for sellers this number will stop around 300k. We have at least 2 more years of this folks, its a bad times a coming for LA housing...This really is the tip of the iceberg. Sorry to say it but I really believe two years from now people are going to look back at today wish they would have put that 20-30% discount on sooner.

[Laker]

Seller wrote: "...That's because people like me who bought in '01 (when prices were mildly insane, not stratospheric) are getting out now while there's still equity left...."

Seller,
If you are moving out of the region,
You are a smart Person! Good luck.

[amir]

Unfortunately, this pace is too slow. At this pace we're facing three years of price reductions. That's bad for the economy. It will destroy the construction and real estate business. Nobody can live through three or four bad years.

I really hope for a more massive drop. When prices actually hit bottom (about 20-30% down from here) the market will begin to recover.

At this pace, it's a slow and painful bleed.

[The original RZ]

Another $1,000 down, another $99,000 to go...

[Rob]

Pete,
I know LA Land is oriented toward residential property, but I rarely see anyone talking about the commercial real estate. From what I have read, that is the 800lb Gorilla in the room. Any news?

[jag]

ShockG reminds me of the top Iraqi official that went on live television telling the world that the Americans were no were in sight at the beginning of the invasion. During the live broadcast the US soldiers were toppling Saddam's statue. Talk about DENIAL!

[puckhead]

Rational Renter has a blog????? Does everyone have a blog about how far RE will fall? What happen to the good old days when we use to look at naked chicks on the web instead of blogs?

[MyLessThanPrimeBeef]

Seller @ 11:08PM spoke the truth, amen.

As for you ex-sellers who took their homes off the market, thus helped reducing inventory, remember this: Any time is a good time to sell. A home is for joy, fun and seasons in the sun (some strange tune keeps playing in my head), and is not an investment. Don't dwell on the fact that you will be losing $400K, OK? Sell now!!!!

[Rational Renter]

Amir - I agree. In fact, I think the best course of action for the country would be for the government to run PSAs urging people not to buy houses for their own financial self-interest. That would get prices moving down quickly. Or they could raise rates, which is more plausible.

the original Rz - actually, we still have $144,000 to go, not 99,000. Sounds like another 1.5-2 years to me.

[MyLessThanPrimeBeef]

Rational Renter, it could be $144,000, $99,000, or $200,000.

Nothing is etched in stone.

Best to remain open minded and flexible. Use your intuition. Get in touch with your feminine side. Be friends with Goddess worshippers. You will know when the time comes. Remember to throw away your spreadsheets and all the best laid plans of mice and men.

[weho19]

Everyone is way too optimistic about how much farther we have to fall. When median sales are around $200k, where it was in 2000-2001, we will be at bottom. That is when the bubble started. That is where it will end. 50% more to go. Figure 3-5 years.

[Ace]

"Inventory down, prices flat and sales volume going up up up!!'

Was that meant to be a positive statement?

Dropping inventory numbers will only help lower prices. All of the $800k listings are expiring and being replaced by $400k bank owned properties... which actuall sell.

So, technically you are right. Inventory down (sellers are giving up) and sales volume is going up up up (banks are moving their properties). I am not sure why you added 3 exclamation points.

[jjs]

it's all about multiples on income...this is where prices will return to. areas that are more desirable and have higher incomes will support a higher multiple due to more disposable income. expect prices to return to multiple levels between 3-6 times avg. HH income. areas w/ lower avg. HH income will be in the 3x range and areas w/ the highest avg. HH incomes will be in the 6x range.

[sfvrealestate]

Thanks, Puckhead. I think there's actually a blog that helps coach bloggers to create bubble blogs. Hmm, Bubble Blogs -- a new growth industry? Can I make money on this? If so, is there a line and can I get in it?

[John D.]

How is it all you geniuses know where the market "should" be? Markets, unfortunately, don't work in predictable patterns. My guess is that house prices could fall further, but I don't know this, and neither do you.

[rewarren]

The decline in asking prices remains linear (a straight line fit accounts for > 98% of the variability). If prices continue to decline at the current rate, median asking price on New Year's Day would be $379,956. To get to the $200,000 level that was suggested above, price would have to continue to decline at the current rate until Columbus Day, 2010.

[Cal]

I can envision scenarios where prices don't overshoot to the downside in the LA Metro area. If the economy can not get much worse and taxes stay in the same ballpark, then I can see it is possible due to changes in financing and demographic factors that the inflation adjusted bottom would be higher than the 90's bust. But I am not optimistic for that scenario to come to fruition, I think the psychology of ownership is changing and the economy is hurting. But I still think its a distinct possibility of hitting a higher low than before.

People don't understand the huge difference in financing that has taken place from now and then. The looser guidelines create more competition, even with a number of sellers being eliminated ecnomically from the market, with the majority of the LA being renters I think we have more than enough slack to create a higher bottom. I think many national markets don't have as many available buyers and so won't fair as well.

Before anyone accuses me of being too optimistic, I am well aware of the massive debt and low equity positions that many sellers are currently buried under. I'm also well aware of the low savings and aggregate load of Americans in general. But it isnt clear that the spenders of society aren't the ones loading up on the debt and the savers are watching them do it and think they are crazy. The saver/spender ratio and how will willing and able savers will be to spend in a downturn will define how bad the downturn will be. It is also a moving target because of things like credit availability and how bad the economy gets.

[Rob]

"The saver/spender ratio and how will willing and able savers will be to spend in a downturn will define how bad the downturn will be. "

Easy for you to say Cal. I agree about the economy it is the unpredictable factor here. Keeping an eye on unemployment, and inflation will gauge the market in a more progressive form.

[Laker]

jag,
His name was Muhammad Saeid Al Sahaf. This clown was so funny that back those days, i used to change my (and my family's) dinner schedule just so that we could hear this "Saturday Night Live style" real time comedy.

I wish shock was 1/4 as funny and entertaining as Al Sahaf...

[Laker]

puckhead,
Why don't you create a blog that will discuss the RE in your area of Pasadena? The great schools? I'm sure there are many people that are interested and will find that beneficial.

sfvrealestate was asking: "...Can I make money on this? If so, is there a line and can I get in it?..."

sfvrealestate ,
There is a 6% commission split between the blogger and the commenter ....I'm sure you like it now even more...