L.A. County listing prices dip $4K, to $415K

Median listing prices in Los Angeles County fell another $4,000 over the last week, to $415,000, and have now declined 28.4% since peaking in April 2006, according to Housing Tracker's weekly analysis of MLS listings.

Median listing prices have fallen 21.6% over the last year, the fastest rate of decline measured in the current downturn. Inventory of houses and condos for sale continues to decline as well; it fell by 200 units over the last week, to 42,612, and is now 4.2% below the year-ago level.

Date              Median listing price                        Inventory

4/06               $579,666                                          27,251
4/07               $545,000                                          35,489
5/07               $545,000                                          38,297
6/07               $540,000                                          40,766 (up 20.4% y/y)
7/07               $535,000                                          42,685 (up 14.5% y/y)
8/07               $529,000                                          44,483 (up 13.6% y/y)
9/07               $520,000                                          46,414 (up 16.9% y/y)
10/07             $510,000                                          46,603 (up 15.6% y/y)
11/07             $499,900                                          46,503 (up 19.0% y/y)
12/07             $495,000 (down 10.0% y/y)           43,174 (up 28.2% y/y)
1/08               $479,900 (down 12.6%)                40,850 (up 33.3% y/y)
2/08               $475,000 (down 13.5%)                43,625 (up 38.3%)
3/08               $464,900 (down 15.5%)                42,098 (up 31.4%)
4/08               $450,000 (down 17.4%)                42,430 (up 16.7%)
5/08               $449,900 (down 17.4%)                42,532 (up 11.1%)
6/08               $440,000 (down 18.5%)                42,398 (up 4.0%)
7/08               $425,000 (down 20.6%)                 44,636 (up 4.6%)
8/4/08           $419,000 (down 20.9%)                 42,812 (down 2.7%) 
8/11/08         $415,000 (down 21.6%)                 42,612 (down 4.2%)

-- Peter Viles
Your thoughts? Comments? E-mail story tips to peter.viles@latimes.com
Photo credit: Getty Images

Comments

[Mike P.]

Isn't this the 'peak home selling' season according to the NAR? BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!! Looks like we are in for a long decline.....

[Rational Renter]

I wish HousingTracker would give us info on April 06 high-end houses. I'd be interested in knowing how far the 75th percentile has dropped (like the 50th percentile has dropped 28.4%).

[Rational Renter]

Correction to my previous post: turns out HousingTracker does provide that data. The 75th percentile was at $805,300 at the peak of the market (April 06). So the 25th percentile has fallen 33.4% already, the 50th percentile has fallen 28.4%, and the 75th percentile has fallen 19.3%

What I would like to know now is what were the figures for 2001.

[Nelcisco]

keep a drop'in

[Yearning For Home]

Listing prices for homes in the 75th percentile seem to be tenanciously hanging on, this calendar year especially: down less than 4.5% from December 2007 levels. For me and my family, who are looking to buy in the lower-end of the 75th percentile, this is frustrating. I wish this market correction would materially extend into the better neighborhoods and the higher-end homes. Perhaps the drop is still coming, but the current data appears to suggest a leveling-off in the prices in the top quarter?

[terminal_velocity]

Interesting - from 12/07 to 6/08 the y/y decline accelerated from 10% to about 20% at which point the y/y percentage acceleration slowed.
From this data it looks like a y/y fall of about 20% is akin to "terminal velocity" for y/y percentage declines.
I just hope the realtors and banks weren't drinking too much koolaid when they packed the auxillary parachute!

[Laker]

Yearning For Home,
The 75% percentile is due to decline the most as of today.
The low end decline more than 33%, median about 28, and high end only 20%. That suggest that the high end has more to give.
Look at history, low, mid, and high gave the same percentage, and the housing market is a food chain. You can't just take a way at one place, every thing is tied together. Besides, there are many properties being listing at really wishing prices. This is specially true for high end houses. That is the reason why the 75% seems to be holding.
In fact the soon pull back of the GSE from the junior jumbo market will essentially kill most houses that are prices in the $500,000-1M range. I have a feeling that by the end of the day, when the dust settles, high end will actually collapse the most ! Simply because there are no more mortgages available to service this market compared to incomes.
The only but really only way high end will survive and stay flat is if we bring back stated income Option ARMS. If you think these are coming back in a month or two...good luck....

[mucker]

Terminal:

If you take a closer look at that data the rate of change from 06 08 till 07 08 was $5,000.00 with the y over yr percentage change went from 18.5% to 20.6%. BUT since then the drop has been $10,000 in 10/11 days. That's figuring the rate quoted for the end of the month. We still have 20 statistical days to show for August. If the rate holds at 10 k per ten days that would be 30 K for the month of August. One might expect the price decline to accelerate now with the fall season softening the sales market. Don't forget that throughout the traditional high sales months the price has continued to drop at a steady rate.

Yearning will get to their target price - perhaps before the end of the year.

[Peter V.]

When the median asking price drops into the 300s, I'm buying everyone a round at Bennigans.

[Joe Shmoe]

The rooting for prices to drop at a particular price point strikes me as a bit gauche.

Talk about a "wishing price."

[J.W.]

To: Yearning for Home:
Patience, Grasshopper.....................Patience.
The next two years will show you a substantial drop in your price range. Housing bubbles always deflate a little at a time in the upper range and when denial and reality sets it...................they drop a lot.
Don't be tempted to jump too quickly as there will be plenty of homes to go around and few qualified buyers to purchase them.
Patience, Grasshopper.

[Ragnar]

When the median asking price drops into the 300s, I'm buying everyone a round at Bennigans.

Posted by: Peter V. | August 11, 2008 at 10:55 PM

Nice one, PV. Didn't Bennigans just file for chapter 11 bankruptcy? Those cold be some cheap@$$ drinks.

[tedson]

Who can afford a $4000 p/mo mortgage unless you're making
$150,000 p/yr? Impossible.

[The original RZ]

Liike I say everytime this info comes out, "come on down!" :-)

Peter V., I'm there when the median drops in the 300s!

[CD]

When will the NAR will capitulate and raise the white flag? No surrender !!!! says Lawrence Yunn to his realtard
troops " Now is time to buy,always and forever " Go to every blog in the country and preach our Gospel and bring the ultra spiked KOOLaid."

[big lebowski]

I just got back from a Chamber of Commerce event. All the realtors were prattling on, "it's a great time to buy" yada yada yada. I can't believe they still use those exact words everytime they open their mounths. It boogles the mind that they can repeat this nonsense to a room full of business people.

[Rational Renter]

Hooray for Peter! I'll get the next round at $350k.

[peteviles]

Peter V. wrote, "When the median asking price drops into the 300s, I'm buying everyone a round at Bennigans."

Thanks, Peteness. Just for the record, that was not me. It was an imposter. I will not be buying rounds at Bennigans. Or Chili's, or Applebees, or TGIFriday's, for that matter.

[Cal]

Bennigans went bankrupt, so I think the fake Pete V has to come up with a plan B.

[It All Happens on the Margin]

Saying the high end is not falling as much is like saying the upper deck of the Titanic is still dry.

Don't worry, this baby is going down - and the band will play on.

[Laker]

Hey Happens on the margin,
I'm sure shock will agree that ...."the upper deck of the Titanic is still dry....."

Great point. For those that doubt that, open history books or at least the archive of LA Times from 1980s or 1990s