Tracking foreclosure rates in your ZIP Code

Where is the rate of foreclosures rising the fastest in Southern California? So glad you asked: Our tech guys have put together this excellent chart showing ZIP Codes with the biggest percentage increase in foreclosures since last year.

A sneak peak at some neighborhoods at the top of the list:

                                    Foreclosures
City                ZIP          Q2 2007     Q2 2008
Glendale       91201             1                12
Culver City    90230             1                11
Long Beach    90806            4                38
Whittier        90601            3                 32

You can also use this handy widget to search for foreclosure -- and median sales price -- stats on the ZIP Code of your choice.

A note about the four ZIPS above: I chose them deliberately because they are all on the high side of median prices for greater Los Angeles (Glendale 91201 had a median sales price in June of $638,000; Culver City 90230 was $665,000; Long Beach 90806 was $570,000; Whittier 90601 was $485,000).

-- Peter Viles

Your thoughts? Comments? E-mail story tips to peter.viles@latimes.com
Photo: Culver City's City Hall. Credit: L.A. Times

Comments

[firesale]

The Westside is burning!
BURN, BABY! BURN !!!

[lasmitty]

Peter, the pic you show of CC City Hall is actually in the 90232 zip, which has had zero forclosures this year against 1 last year in Q1. The 90232 encompasses downtown CC, Sony and the arts district. 90230 is the area west of the 405 south of Washington that houses the Mar Vista Gardens projects.

I'm not saying that downtown CC in invulnerable, but that so far, it's faring well.

[Nick]

A suggestion for the tech guys:

It would be nice to be able to set simple filters on the data. For example, sorting by increase in foreclosure % would be more useful if I could exclude those areas which had less than 5 foreclosures in Q2/2007 (ie: areas where the data set is significant). Or, if the areas could be aggregated so the data is flatter, but while preserving area differences.

Just some thoughts, good info.

[lasmitty]

Oh, and median price is 793k, down 7% from this time last year, according to your chart.

[PositiveCarry]

SoCal doesn't include San Diego? :)

[It All Happens on the Margin]

Mortgage rates are now at 1 year high...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121677
010658575383.html

More pressure on pricing.

As defaults rise and banks & brokers go bust, interest rates simply have to rise as a risk premium.

I've always said higher rates are better for buyers as it lowers the tax basis for the property, the required down payment $, and the loan principal. Plus, you can always refi when rates come down. And if you're subject to AMT, the deduction is higher as property tax is non-deductuble.

All things being equal, I'd take higher rates over higher principal any day of the week.

[iriecricket]

You couldn't pay me to live in Long Beach's 90806 - while there are beautiful and historic homes in some of the neighborhoods, the crime rate is quite high. It is not a very desireable area of Long Beach. Unfortunately, I can't access the chart to search by zip codes but I'm guessing Long Beach's 90803 zip code isn't even close to the rate of foreclosures that 90806 is seeing.

[sheila]

from today's article in the LA Times about the Feds plan:

Finally, it includes measures aimed at stimulating the housing market, including a tax credit for first-time home buyers and authority for states to issue an additional $11 billion of tax-exempt bonds to refinance subprime loans, provide loans to first-time home buyers and fund the construction of low- income rental housing.

now, what's wrong with this picture? we have roughly 30,000 vacant, rotting houses in SoCal, and the fed's package includes a Building Industry giveaway in the form of NEW CONSTRUCTION? why don't the states enter into long-term cheap lease agreements with the lenders on those foreclosed houses and use them for low-income housing? no need for massive bailout, no need for more wasteful construction, the houses get maintained and everyone has a roof over their head...

[ocrenter]

the LA Times graphed the CA foreclosures in Q1 2007 and compared it to historic data including the prior historic peak in 1995.

But that graph was not updated since. Using the original graph and its axis, I've updated the graph to include data to Q2 2008, please see here:

http://bp2.blogger.com/_QMoXJ8fOgo4/
SIY7CGuO44I/AAAAAAAACfM/xjlMkKKNcD8/s1600-h/
CA+foreclosure+2008+q2.JPG

[John D.]

Again, this shows the distress is located primiarily is areas that are well-below median price. Five or less foreclosures in a whole zip code do not a major real estate correction make. It's starting to look like the wave isn't going to break in the better westside communities. Too much wealth, too much demand. You're not going to see a 20-30% decline in house prices in Westwood, SM, etc.

[Fourth Generation]

No PositiveCarry, San Diego is LoCal. Just to let you know about the local distinctions in nomenclature :-)

[Kathy]

Not all of the Westside is in flames; 90025 has fewer foreclosures than last year, AND the last 2 months on Dataquick, the sales and price have been significantly higher than last year. There is something squirrely, though; sales and price in that zip showed a precipitous drop in April yoy Dataquick, so I'm not sure what's going on there. It's right next to Brentwood/Westwood, and a lot of $600+k 2 bedroom condos were sold there in the last several years...

[sfvrealestate]

John D. is right. And I don't think you're going to see 20%-30% correction in even the more centrally located middle areas either for the same reason.

[Not Tom Vu]

Agree that Culver City 90232 prices are holding up relatively well, although still falling, with a lot of sitting inventory.

However, the foreclosed home in 90230 (assuming it's the REO sold on Pickford in June), was actually in the very desirable Lindberg Park neighborhood, east of the 405 and nowhere near the Mar Vista Gardens project (which, BTW, is outside of Culver City limits). Though in a good neighborhood, the house itself was not in a good location, sharing an alley with businesses on Overland Avenue.

[Not Tom Vu]

Agree that Culver City 90232 prices are holding up relatively well, although still falling, with a lot of sitting inventory.

However, the foreclosed home in 90230 (assuming it's the REO sold on Pickford in June), was actually in the very desirable Lindberg Park neighborhood, east of the 405 and nowhere near the Mar Vista Gardens project (which, BTW, is outside of Culver City limits). Though in a good neighborhood, the house itself was not in a good location, sharing an alley with businesses on Overland Avenue.

[annon]

The formatting change in the article (now showing 2Q 2008 numbers in comparison to the 2Q 2007 numbers) makes all the difference...

[Laker]

sfvrealestate,
Central middle class areas like good part of the SFV are already 20-25% down year over year.
You are in a serious state of denial...
God, i thought you already on your way to acceptance and/or capitulation, but you are so behind the market...
Wake up and smell the coffee, there are no (qualified) buyers .

[puckhead]

What's interesting about the June sales numbers is that I'm tracking 10 zip codes and 9 of the 10 had month over month increases in sales price. I have not seen that since I started tracking this about a year ago.

[the problemwithcaring]

These realtors will NEVER EVER EVER let up.

Ugh-- shouldn't you all be busy leaving congratulatory comments on the blogs of knifecatchers buying overpriced REO's Highland Park and mid-Wilshire?

[puckhead]

Laker,

There are no good middle class areas of the SFV anymore. Nobody with kids wants anything to do with LAUSD. When I was growing up, the SFV was a viable option for the middle class. That day has come and gone.

[John D.]

tpwc,
I don't know who you are talking to, but I am not a realtor and, actually, don't particularly care for realtors. My point is that there is no sign of distress in areas w/ an average house price at or near $1 million. So, everyone hoping for a buyers' market on the Westside had better keep hoping. BH, SM, Westwood, West LA, Venice, Brentwood and even areas further in like Hancock Park, Fairfax, etc. remain very strong, with barely any foreclosures and stability in house prices.

The Valley is a different story. There have been increases in a number of foreclosures in decent areas there (Woodland Hills, Tarzana). But in areas where the land, per square foot, costs a lot, the prices are very, very resilient. I expected things to get much worse, much faster. Could still happen of course, but I would not count on that $1.3 million 3 bedroom house, going for $1.0 million anytime soon.

[shockg]

Wake up and smell the coffee, there are no (qualified) buyers .

Posted by: Laker | July 23, 2008 at 11:53 AM

I like how no one in the "real world" is qualified to buy but everyone here is.

[Arvin]

I live in the 90806 zip code in Long Beach and I find it quite nice. I live just north of Willow and it's a great, middle-class, culturally-diverse, family neighborhood. Housing prices were getting a bit out-of-hand (in the $600k range) and I admit there are crimes but it is not crime-ridden (we do live in an urban area). I compare it to Silverlake or Echo Park...nice neighborhoods near urban centers (we are only a few miles from downtown). Willow Street can use some sprucing up but if you drive into the neighborhood (up Golden or Maine or Daisy), then you'll find nice pride-of-ownership homes along tree-lined streets. So, if you're looking for a nice home at below LA County average prices, then consider this area of Long Beach. It may not be "desirable" to some people, but one may be pleasantly surprised.

[Knifecatcher (with my teeth)]

An update on some hopefully valuable stats for those in-the-know:

Since the areas you are tracking do not include the O.C.,
I found a little diamond in the ruff over by Biola University.
90638 sold for 496,000 in May of 08 and and between 375,000 and 485,000 today, and that is median.