Listing prices are now $155K below peak levels; inventory is flat
Two headlines duel in this week's analysis of MLS listings from Housing Tracker: Median listing prices dropped another $1,000 over the week and are now $155,000 below their bubble peak, while inventory dipped again and is now even with year-ago levels.
At $424,000, median listing prices are down 20.7% from year-ago levels -- the steepest decline yet measured in this slump -- and are 26.9% below their peak level of $579,666. The inventory of homes and condos for sale dropped by just over 1,000 units and is now just 0.8% ahead of year-ago levels.
I'm curious to hear your thoughts and theories on this: What's going on with inventory?
Date Median listing price Inventory
4/06 $579,666 27,251
4/07 $545,000 35,489
5/07 $545,000 38,297
6/07 $540,000 40,766 (up 20.4% y/y)
7/07 $535,000 42,685 (up 14.5% y/y)
8/07 $529,000 44,483 (up 13.6% y/y)
9/07 $520,000 46,414 (up 16.9% y/y)
10/07 $510,000 46,603 (up 15.6% y/y)
11/07 $499,900 46,503 (up 19.0% y/y)
12/07 $495,000 (down 10.0% y/y) 43,174 (up 28.2% y/y)
1/08 $479,900 (down 12.6%) 40,850 (up 33.3% y/y)
2/08 $475,000 (down 13.5%) 43,625 (up 38.3%)
3/08 $464,900 (down 15.5%) 42,098 (up 31.4%)
4/08 $450,000 (down 17.4%) 42,430 (up 16.7%)
5/08 $449,900 (down 17.4%) 42,532 (up 11.1%)
6/08 $440,000 (down 18.5%) 42,398 (up 4.0%)
7/7/08 $425,000 (down 20.6%) 44,726 (up 5.2%)
7/14/08 $425,000 (down 20.6%) 44,636 (up 4.6%)
7/21/08 $424,000 (down 20.7%) 43,584 (up 0.8%)
Posted by Peter Viles
Your thoughts? Comments? E-mail story tips to peter.viles@latimes.com.
xtine,
I'll help you to understand this property specifically, I'm sure the others are the same. From public records:
1916 W COURT St LOS ANGELES, CA 90026
SALES HISTORY (truncated)
Sold to Rafael Cisneros Dec 11, 2006 $435,000
Foreclosed by Citibank on Apr 11, 2008 for $344,179
CITIBANK thinks the property is "worth" $344,000 so it is listing it in the hope of selling...
LISTING HISTORY (full) BY CITIBANK trying to sell the REO
May 07, 2008 $334,900
CITIBANK Reduced price on Jun 10, 2008 $299,000
CITIBANK Reduced price on Jul 14, 2008 $259,900
Hope it clears the picture.
Posted by: Laker | July 22, 2008 at 08:57 PM
Christopher Thornberg has said today that the housing correction is only half way through. He said 40% decline from peak, would signal stabilization, until then, no way for bottom. Since we have just seen about 20% decline in the last 12 ,months, if everything is kept same, and not worse, another 12 months we will have the 40% decline.
Well if you take X as the peak price, and after 12 months, you have 0.8X, then another 12 months will get you 0.8x0.8X or 0.64X. While 40% down is 0.6X.
In any case, 40% is really a safe number to bet, the bottom will at least be at 40% down from peak or maybe even lower if we see over correction.
A very important note to keep in mind is the ability to detect a ligit peak price. If you buy today a foreclosed house that has reached some peak price in 2006, check if this number is not a mere fraud / some mortgage fraud or alike. Those figures tend to be discount 50% in some case...Be careful.
Posted by: Laker | July 22, 2008 at 09:05 PM
Laker -
OOOOhhhh. So the "sale" listed on 4/11 was actually a foreclosure (IOW, the property changed hands, back to the bank).
Got it. Extremely helpful. Thank you.
X
Posted by: xtine | July 23, 2008 at 07:06 AM
The Real Estate Market Starts Climing Again
During the past couple of years we've all seen a tremendous change in real estate in the country.
This change actually has spread all over, businesses loosing money while gas prices are extremely high.
The real estate market has become a big issue for all of us out there, we've seen many homeowners loosing their homes and struggling to find a home to rent because of their credit.
What happen to us?
Remember the bubble 4 years ago?
That's exactly the answer, from years of prosperity and times of spending, traveling and investing in stocks and real estate, we are now experiencing another bubble but this time the bubble is going in a different direction and we are wondering what to do.
So real estate was going down and it's still going down, some economists say that it will get stable in 2 years from now.
The sellers market became a buyers market, and today we all know it by now.
Investors and renters that saved their money for better days to buy to make money are in the market today, that's making the real estate market busy.
Real estate agents that learn how to change with the market also learned how to make money from the changes, these real estate professionals are making lots of money and while we are all struggling for business they're making the business.
Today you can get a home directly from the banks for almost half the price.
I've seen homeowners that are so desperate that they're willing to give their homes for free, just come and take their loan and continue their payments.
On the other hand, investors are looking to buy homes in bulk, they can get homes $.50 on the dollar.
Some banks like bank of america and countrywide are selling hundreds of homes in bulk to investors at a discount prices.
So real estate agents are busy getting hundreds of listings and reo's from banks, then they're selling these homes at a low price to future homeowners and investors.
It's definitely a buyer's market like we had in the early 90's, so if you're an investor or a homeowner.
This is your time!
Posted by: yanni raz | July 23, 2008 at 02:29 PM
There are probably many reason why the inventory is slowing, frankly what does it matter? A quick look at the statistics will tell you that's not because they're being sold.
Posted by: Westside Home Buyer | July 23, 2008 at 03:12 PM