L.A. listing prices drop $4K, now down $154K from peak

Median listing prices in Los Angeles County dropped by another $4,000 over the past week, according to Housing Tracker's weekly analysis of MLS listings, and have now fallen $154,000, or 26.7%, from their April 2006 peak.

Numbers: Housing tracker reports median listing prices fell to $425,000 from $429,000, marking a decline of 20.6% over the past year. That 20.6% rate of annual decline marks the highest rate of decline in this housing cycle. Inventory of homes and condos for sale dropped by more than 400 units, to 44,726, and is pacing 5.2% ahead of year-ago levels.

Date              Median listing price                    Inventory

4/06               $579,666                                      27,251
4/07               $545,000                                      35,489
5/07               $545,000                                      38,297
6/07               $540,000                                      40,766 (up 20.4% y/y)
7/07               $535,000                                      42,685 (up 14.5% y/y)
8/07               $529,000                                      44,483 (up 13.6% y/y)
9/07               $520,000                                      46,414 (up 16.9% y/y)
10/07             $510,000                                      46,603 (up 15.6% y/y)
11/07             $499,900                                      46,503 (up 19.0% y/y)
12/07             $495,000 (down 10.0% y/y)      43,174 (up 28.2% y/y)
1/08               $479,900 (down 12.6%)            40,850 (up 33.3% y/y)
2/08               $475,000 (down 13.5%)            43,625 (up 38.3%)
3/08               $464,900 (down 15.5%)            42,098 (up 31.4%)
4/08               $450,000 (down 17.4%)            42,430 (up 16.7%)
5/08               $449,900 (down 17.4%)            42,532 (up 11.1%)
6/02/08         $446,500 (down 17.3%)            42,458 (up 4.9%)
6/09/08         $440,000 (down 18.5%)            42,398 (up 4.0%)
6/23/08         $429,990 (down 20.2%)            45,493 (up 8.2%)
6/30/08         $429,000 (down 20.4%)            45,164 (up 7.4%)
7/7/08           $425,000 (down 20.6%)            44,726 (up 5.2%)

Your thoughts? Comments? E-mail story tips to peter.viles@latimes.com.

Comments

[Fred]

Just to flesh out Peter's report: the 50th and the 75th percentile of homes were both down $4,000 in the past week. The 25th percentile was down $6,000.

[Laker]

Summer is known to be the time when most RE transactions occur and ususally prices rise at that time.
Looking at the current trend, it looks like more and more sellers are starting to reduce their wishing prices.
Also, i think it is important to look at the rate of listing price decline, so far it is just growing...in physics, when YoY rates are increasing, it means there is an acceleration or economic deterioration in asking prices. You see, if we had 0 YoY rate of listing prices, then we would know that prices are decreasing in a linear way. However, since YoY is positive (greater than zero) and moreover, it is increasing, that means prices are falling faster and faster as in free fall and accelerating using gravity.
Very bad news for our RE Bulls and shills.

[save your ammo]

Peter, I'm lazy. When you do your weekly price drop
story (always my favorite read of the week), please give us
the percentage off the top not just the year-over-year drop.

The bigger number always needs to be in there. It's
not only how fast we're falling, it's how far we've
fallen. Sellers often confuse the percentages when
they're thinking about what their house is worth.
Let's keep the value lessons very clear. There's been
enough fantasy these past seven years. Thanks.

[esp4p3]

I'm sure this has been brought up before but I thought it was worth repeating. These are listing prices, not actual sale prices. People are not paying actual listing prices so the actual drop is even more. Maybe people are starting to come back to reality and reduce their prices.

[Keith]

Here's another request - give us more numbers into the past. I would like to see what month and year we have gone back to. i.e. when was the current median last hit?

[keith]

But of course none of this actually affects LA, now does it?

[puckhead]

I’ve been looking at houses in South Pas and I’m definitely seeing cracks. The biggest differences I see now vs. the last few years is that houses on the market now that have flaws; such as size, condition, busy street, bad landscaping etc. are staying on the market even with the decline in prices. Over the weekend I saw two houses in South Pas that had some of the above flaws that were short sales from 2005 and 2006. The listing prices were way below the previous selling price. On the other hand, I’ve also seen some houses that were really nice and they were sold pretty quickly. Maybe I would have considered the houses with flaws a few years ago. But in today’s environment, there’s no rush.

[Rich]

We're coming close to that place where Californians who've been holding out from the market because of price find homes they like for prices within reasonable range of their income, and then the next stage happens: are you able to get a mortgage? Are you able to sell your own reasonably home to get into a new one? The individual stories about borrowing difficulties may be the next phase of this bubble, so anyone who gets off the fence to enter the market should tell us whether lower prices were the only issue or whether other issues are still keeping them out of a house...

[tew]

Only about another 20% to go! We're about "half way" there in just two years!

[Fred]

2001 prices. 2001 prices.

Repeat it as a mantra.

[dclogang]

House prices will come down below $200,000. We are in a free fall... aaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhh.

There are 4 houese right next to each other with For Sale signs on them on Saticoy st. in reseda / van nuys that have been on the market for at least a year.

I need to take a picture of it. It's really a telling sign..

[MyLessThanPrimeBeef]

Courtesy of Robert Herrick, the 17th Century poet/house flipper:

Gather ye money while ye may,
Old Time is still a-flying:
And this same offer that smiles to-day
To-morrow will be dying.

The glorious lamp of heaven, the sun,
The higher he's a-getting,
The sooner will his race be run,
And nearer he's to setting.

That age is best which is the first,
When youth and blood are warmer;
But being spent, the worse, and worst
Times still succeed the former.

Then be not coy, but use your time,
And while ye may,, get real in a hurry:
For having lost but once your prime,
You may for ever tarry.

And this about the endangered species known as home buyers from his summer-intern real estate agent, William Shakespeare:

Shall I compare thee to a summer's day?
Thou art more languid and more deliberate:
Rough winds do shake the darling asking prices of May,
And summer's lease hath all too short a date:

[150 Multiple Choice Questions]

Welcome Puckhead, it's nice to have you aboard.

[Jason K]

I agree that the prices will continue down. I believe we'll stabilize at 2003 levels (if we factor in inflation those will in fact be 2001 levels). Cheers, Jason

[shockg]

wow Inventory is back down to the same level as last August. We could see a YOY decrease next month.

[BigBuyer]

BUY BUY BUY... I Always do what everyone else isn't. Whatever people tell you to do, do the opposite, this is true for everything, except my comment.

[tealeaf]

shockg keeps looking for something, ANYTHING, to justify his beliefs.

Like mixing and matching periods for comparison.

Or ignoring that the LISTING price has fallen off a cliff.

Have you looked at RedFin lately at the so called "nice areas"? They are lit up like Christmas Trees, and there is serious pricing penetration - even in places like M-B - not seen since 2003.

But ignore all that - the inventory number is close to August's number from last year !

Oh, I miss lefty.

[tag heuer]

"wow Inventory is back down to the same level as last August. We could see a YOY decrease next month."

yes, and most of the inventory out there is crap. Look at everything that is for sale in Eagle Rock, for instance. It's all houses that have been on the market forever that are on main roads, have zero curb appeal, need work, are really close to apartment buildings, etc. It's no good.

in fact, desirable homes are still selling. It's taking much longer and they are getting less than asking price, but they are selling.

[tag heuer]

"Only about another 20% to go! We're about "half way" there in just two years!"

keep dreaming and get used to apartment living.

[i do like cheesy doritos, though.]

"There are 4 houese right next to each other with For Sale signs on them on Saticoy st. in reseda / van nuys that have been on the market for at least a year. I need to take a picture of it. It's really a telling sign."

No, the telling sign is that someone actually wanted to live in the valley in the first place. What a powerful force this housing bubble was to create such a climate where someone would actually say out loud, "Hey, we should live in Van Nuys."

The only thing worse than that ghetto would be one of those sprawling pits in West LA like Palms. Imagine saying "Honey, let's look at this charming little bungalow in Palms." What was everyone smoking ?

Please, let prices come down so the poor people can move back into their neighborhoods.

Oh, and by the way, granite countertops are cheesy and if you paid to have them put in your house, you are cheesy. And if you think you added value to your house by doing that, you are cheesy.

[cdub]

Hey no dissing Palms! I live there as a renter - but yeah - buying a house there isn't too smart unless you wanted to be surrounded by APTs - but buying a condo is a different story.... they're still overpriced though.

[eternal summer]

yay!

now, let the interest rates rise to the heavens so I can make some money on my money & these delusional sellers can "discover" what their shacks are really worth.

please wake me up or email me when a 3/2 in the south bay hits 500K-thanks

[shockg]

yay!

now, let the interest rates rise to the heavens so I can make some money on my money & these delusional sellers can "discover" what their shacks are really worth.

please wake me up or email me when a 3/2 in the south bay hits 500K-thanks

Posted by: eternal summer | July 08, 2008 at 07:30 PM "

Yay, let the interest rates rise so when you housing speculators decide to buy your money won't get you any nicer of a house. YAY!

[E]

Tag Heuer said...

"keep dreaming and get used to apartment living."

I actually like apartments. Well...condos to be more precise.

Sure glad I'm only paying 34% of my LL's monthly nut.

Buying a 600k 1BR luxury condos are a suckers bet.

ShockG said

"Yay, let the interest rates rise so when you housing speculators decide to buy your money won't get you any nicer of a house. YAY!"

I'll be paying cash for my next place. But thanks for taking out a mortgage. If it weren't for the "little people" such as yourselves going into debt, banks wouldn't pay interest on CD's.

CRANK THOSE RATES TO THE MOON!

[Cal]

shockg: "Yay, let the interest rates rise so when you housing speculators decide to buy your money won't get you any nicer of a house. YAY!"

An oft repeated line, especially popular with realtors (just given by NAR president yesterday in fact).

Except nobody uttering the line can quite figure out that if monthly payments are aligning with income because financing is rationalizing.. and financing gets more expenive... wouldn't that just mean that prices come down to match?

Oops.