L.A. listing prices flat over past week

Median listing prices in Los Angeles County were flat over the past week as inventory of for-sale homes and condos dipped a little, according to Housing Tracker's weekly analysis of MLS listings,

 Median listing prices held at $425,000, down 20.6% from year-ago levels. Also worth noting: inventory is now running just 4.6% ahead of year-ago levels.

Date              Median listing price                    Inventory

4/06               $579,666                                      27,251
4/07               $545,000                                      35,489
5/07               $545,000                                      38,297
6/07               $540,000                                      40,766 (up 20.4% y/y)
7/07               $535,000                                      42,685 (up 14.5% y/y)
8/07               $529,000                                      44,483 (up 13.6% y/y)
9/07               $520,000                                      46,414 (up 16.9% y/y)
10/07             $510,000                                      46,603 (up 15.6% y/y)
11/07             $499,900                                      46,503 (up 19.0% y/y)
12/07             $495,000 (down 10.0% y/y)           43,174 (up 28.2% y/y)
1/08               $479,900 (down 12.6%)                40,850 (up 33.3% y/y)
2/08               $475,000 (down 13.5%)                43,625 (up 38.3%)
3/08               $464,900 (down 15.5%)                42,098 (up 31.4%)
4/08               $450,000 (down 17.4%)                42,430 (up 16.7%)
5/08               $449,900 (down 17.4%)                42,532 (up 11.1%)
6/08               $440,000 (down 18.5%)                42,398 (up 4.0%) 
7/7/08           $425,000 (down 20.6%)                44,726 (up 5.2%)
7/14/08         $425,000 (down 20.6%)                44,636 (up 4.6%)

Your thoughts? Comments? E-mail story tips to peter.viles@latimes.com.

Comments

[Laker]

Peter,
All this is going to be nonsense if the no mortgages are going to be available to Joe and Jane....
Asking price will be slashed by half.
If Fannie and Freddie are in trouble and they did not even participate in the LA mortgages...what will happen to LA mortgages...Look at Indymac that specialized in jumbo loans and ALT-A loans in LA....
This is scary, we are heading to times, when no mortgages are available, and besides, even if you could get one, the growing unemployment here does make you think twice if you would still have a job in 6 months to pay it.....

[anonymous]

Lake
do you see why i was predicting sub-2001 levels? the whole tinderbox is about to blow. this is the balkans in 1915 and the arch duke franz ferdinand has a snub nosed pointed at his big hat wearing head.

and. you know, the graph shows that the arch of the bubble started late 90s. the perfect storm. overcorrection. we're going to be in the 70s again wear assets are cheap, but wages stink. and no one has spare cash for starbucks and drycleaners. and houses are being sold for cash.
btw lake - i always imagine you to be 1/2 luke & 1/2 papa walton. tell me there's a resemblance.

[pugtv]

Greedy NAR and Greedy lenders and Greedy refinancing homeowners and Greedy ...

Hey ShockG ... did I finger point greed at the right people? I forget who you wanted me to complain about ... let me know if I missed anyone ...

Btw, which greedy category do you fall under?

[It All Happens on the Margin]

Don't look at the fannie/freddie bailout.

Ignore the lines at your local IMB branch (the one on Ventura in Encino had police managing the crowd at 7:30pm this eve).

Forget about the hiring freezes and nutty labor actions threatening this town.

shockg says inventory is slowing, by golly, there's hope.

[puckhead]

Laker,

Lets not get carried away, Fannie and Freddie are not going away. The actions on Monday put an end to that speculation. Loans are available if you have the $ for a down, income and good credit. I know this is only antidotal evidence to everyone, but within the last 2 weeks I’ve had a co-worker sell their home in the low $1M range and buy another home in the high $1M range. I also saw two properties in South Pas both in the $500K’s range that were both small cracker boxes and they both sold in a week. The world is moving on and if people want to buy and are able, they’ll get a loan.

[Fred]

Laker is 100% correct. Asking prices could literally be cut in half to snag the all-cash buyers. That might be the only way to get a house next year.

[dclogang]

I've said it before, I'll say it again.

House prices in LA will go down another 50% from today's asking prices not from peek.

GDII is coming (Great Depression).

[Laker]

anonymous,
I like Luke, he has high basketball IQ, but he really stunk in the NBA finals...
I'm totally not like the Walton family, not at all.
I tend to agree with you. All along, my prediction of 2001 prices is/was based on the fact the mortgages will be available, employment will be pretty much same, and rents will be same, such that the only correction would be afford ability to match 30 year fix mortgages. Now if we take away a substantial decrease in mortgage availability (increased qualification), add to that higher interest rates, and couple with increased unemployment....There are the ingredients for over correction. Prices lower than 1999 are crazy when you think about the worthless dollars of today.
....unless we are going to see some serious deflation. I really doubt that the dollar can gain that much value over the rest. With Helicopter Ben and 2% Feds rate.....No Way Jose.

[MyLessThanPrimeBeef]

This is like tracking a hurricane. One moment, you think it's stalling or weakening, only to find out later it has strengthened into a category 5.

That's bad news, really bad, for people who are under water, that is, under or below sea level.

[DSL]

To wit, Puckhead, my downstairs neighbor who is selling his Pasadena condo has had 3 offers and it's been listed for 3 weeks. The market is not dead. And no, I am not a "permabull" to use the parlance of many on this thread, it just seems that many of you are renters or frustrated would-be buyers trying to convince yourselves prices will be at 2000 levels soon.

[keith]

!!!OMG!!1!1!!!

This is it! This is the bottom! Call your agent and raise your list price today! C'mon people, we can do it!

[Visfxguy]

So, I've got a theory. And it could be crazy...but I'm gonna put it out there and see what everybody thinks about it.

Could it be that the banks are holding off on putting their REO's onto the market, waiting for some sort of rescue plan? That's about the only reason I can imagine for inventory staying at the level it's at.

Last year, when I was thinking about buying, I had a Realtor start sending me new listings on the MLS for the areas I was looking in. After deciding that buying now wouldn't be a good idea, I thought I'd still keep the emails coming and check them regularly to see how many new properties were coming onto the market. You know -- sit back and watch the housing market tank from the cheap seats.

But here's the weird thing -- back at the beginning of the year -- it was easy to see that we were going to see trouble. Every week ten or twenty new houses would be listed. But now, very few houses are being put on the MLS -- REO's or otherwise. It's like, all of a sudden, somebody turned off a spigot. It's almost as if they wait until one house is sold in order to put another one out on the market -- it's reduced that much.

We've all seen the foreclosure numbers and we know that the houses are out there. And I'm not buying the idea that the lenders are so slammed with them that it takes too long for to process a house from N.O.D. to R.E.O.

Could there be some sort of bailout that the banks are hoping for? Maybe they're looking to the federal government to take the foreclosures off their hands -- which is artificially keeping the supply lower than it should be (and prices high).

So, am I crazy? Just curious.

[Bob Warren]

List prices continue their linear trend, but the slope is getting steeper -- this means somewhat lower listing prices predicted for year's end ($381,425 this week). I've posted the graph at: http://www.pixentral.com/show.php?picture=
1qdHW3N5581moUu2DBZ1SWxk0Er9U

[RM]

Perhaps what may be happening is that sellers and banks may be thinking that todays high inflation will actually start to push home prices higher in the not too distant future. Todays dollar by no means has the same buying power that it did just eight years ago. Price a house today in gold bullion or oil vs ten years ago and home prices are actually much cheaper. The real problem lies in that the value of the dollar is being decimated and wages for the average person are not keeping pace. At some point in time this "crude" reality will hit people hard in the face, perhaps when in California a gallon of gas is the same as the hourly minimum wage.

[IToldu2CashOut]

In the eye of the storm.

[150 Multiple Choice Questions]

Puckhead, I agree that the market isn't going to zero sales, but wonder what the prices for the properties would have been last year or the year before?

Would the low 1's have been 1.5? 1.7? And what would the upper 1's have been?

Where I live there are certainly sales, but it's 50%+ less sales than last year and two years ago and just about all are reduced from asking and peak pricing. They're certainly not 50% off, but what's going to change to stop the decline from getting to 30-50%? A year ago you "couldn't lose money buying here" now everyone who's buying wants 10% off. And three months from now and six months from now... who knows what buyers will want?

[DF]

@Visfxguy: I recently spoke with a friend who works in Westside real estate, and she told me that banks are holding off foreclosing there as long as possible in order to stop the growth of inventory and, likely more important, the perception of a crisis in even high-end markets. Also, a lot of people have taken their homes off the market because they're not getting anything like the price they wanted. These are two of the factors that contribute to the relatively flat levels of inventory. It doesn't mean that there's any improvement, it just means that the worsening conditions have chilled attempts to sell.

[keith]

Banks will hold their inventory as long as they can, but when the floodgates open, you are going to hear a a big whosshing sound.

A bank can take a mid term view, 2 to 4 years, to see what happens on the market, but of course no one will want to be the last one sitting on dead inventory. You are starting to see more cracks appear, so don't be surprised when the number of banked own properties on the market at low prices really takes off.

[shockg]

Hey PUG, the greedy ones around here are the ones who are trying to profit by timing the market. Oh and lets not forget the self-serving doom and gloom banter that you fools soil this blog with.

[pugtv]

Shockg,

Dang, I knew I forgot someone ... dang greedy bloggers. How dare you to want to buy a house at a low price. That's just offensive.

Btw Shock, you forgot to answer which greedy category you fall under =)

[shockg]

Hey PUG, Those that want to buy a home at a low price to live in is one thing. Those who are housing speculators and are attempting to line their pockets and cheering for people to lose their home are disgusting. Lets face it, you and almost everyone lese here has owned a home before sold not out of neccesity but greed. Thats the category you fall under. I am just a homeowner who bought with a fixed mortgage and plans to stay put for 10 yrs.

Keep in mind that nothing you say here will influence buyers and sellers. Create all the bubble blogs you want.

[pugtv]

Shockg,

I have no interest in influencing the market. I wouldn't recommend people to listen to a crazy nut like me.

So now I'm even more curious. Why would a "homeowner who bought with a fixed mortgage and plans to stay put for 10 yrs" spend so much time blogging, trying to influence home prices upwards.?

Is there something you wish to disclose to everyone? =)