It's worse out there, chapter two
A while back I bloviated that the housing collapse was not an equal-opportunity destroyer of value and would ultimately be "worse out there" -- that is, worse in remote suburbs. The enterprising folks at zillow.com have documented exactly that. The above graphic shows declining home values in concentric rings spreading out from the center of Los Angeles. Here are the numbers:
0- to 10-mile radius (Los Angeles, Glendale, Pasadena, Inglewood): -14.2%
10- to 20-mile radius (Long Beach, Los Angeles, Whittier, Torrance): -16.0%
20- to 30-mile radius (Anaheim, Huntington Beach, Garden Grove, Fullerton) -18.4%
30- to 40-mile radius (Irvine, Palmdale, Santa Ana, Ontario) -20.5%
40- to 50-mile radius (Riverside, Fontana, Lancaster, Corona) -23.5%
The percentages represent year-over-year decline in home values, as estimated by Zillow, from Q1 2007 to Q1 2008.
Your thoughts? Comments? E-mail story tips to peter.viles@latimes.com
I had a boss who loved the word and used it more accurately, and now I just look for reasons to use it.
Posted by: peteviles
o ok. cool.
Posted by: the problewithcaring | July 16, 2008 at 03:13 PM
TC-
You can see Zillow's accuracy on a county by county basis here - http://www.zillow.com/howto/DataCoverageZestimate
Accuracy.htm
Posted by: Drew Meyers from Zillow | July 16, 2008 at 10:15 PM
Brett Shaw from Cyberhomes:
How can you come to a conclusion about a certain market with exact circles? As I read the comments (not being from L.A. and all), this map is useless. It fails to distinguish different areas within a ring. It's a nice pretty little target pointing right back at zillow.
If you really want a good heat map about an area, check out the explore maps section at Cyberhomes.com There are nearly 20 heat maps that show everything from change in prices, crime, and schools to popultion density and if there are a lot of babies in the area. It blows this map out of the water.
Posted by: Brett Shaw | July 17, 2008 at 12:48 PM
"OC is cratering, dude. Sorry."
--Even if that is remotely true, doesn't change the fact that there are still more opportunities in OC if you are qualified for a good job. Such "cratering" involves housing, banks, construction, and these issues apply throughout CA, to a lesser extent in SF. Low pay / low skill jobs may be hit hard (as expected). The fact that there are fewer wannabe RE agents and loan doc paper pushers with high school educations is actually a good thing. Those jobs should have never existed in the first place so such "cratering" is basically removal of excess that was never intended to be, back to the norm / trend line. If that is "cratering", I'll take it. And mid to high level employment is just fine and seems to be expanding.
When I worked downtown, 90%+ of my meetings and clients were outside of that area. I know more and more people moving out of LA, and I can honestly say I do not know a single person who has recently moved in the opposite direction. Just what I am seeing - may not apply to everyone, but I hear the same thing more and more each month for the same reasons - loss of job in LA, schools or family matters.
Posted by: SoCalJim | July 17, 2008 at 01:03 PM
SoCalJim:
Interesting : I am seeing exactly the opposite, especially in technology, which has been the one bright spot for the county.
I was at a conference last night with 60+ IT execs; the handful in transition were from OC. Every single one was actively exploring opportunities in LA.
Quoth one: "the OC job market is just dead."
Posted by: It All Happens on the Margin | July 17, 2008 at 01:19 PM
Interesting how it looks different depending on where you are / what you do. I know we are hiring and are busier than we have ever been. We are not involved in anything related to RE, banking, construction, auto. We deal a lot with tech and we are not hearing about much of a slowdown. The company I was at before in LA has been cut in half, and the company I was at before that has been cut by at least 1/3. Good thing I left before that. So at least based on my workload, I do not work with anyone in LA (maybe once a year, but that is about it). Recent earnings reports also looked good / OK, even with postive surprises from some banks (despite a loss), so I would guess that 2013 as a projected "recovery" for OC is a bit far out.
Posted by: SoCalJim | July 17, 2008 at 02:45 PM
It may also be a case of "bad here - have to move somewhere else" "Oh wait, bad there too..." Now what do I do? I guess move to the midwest and use your downpayment or gains (if any) from your house here and buy a house for cash and relax in the snow...
Otherwise, have to play the waiting game...
Posted by: SoCalJim | July 17, 2008 at 02:49 PM