LA listing prices now down $149K from peak

Interesting numbers tonight from Housing Tracker's weekly analysis of MLS listings: Median listing prices in Los Angeles County dropped sharply over the past week, falling by more than $10,000, as inventory of for-sale houses and condos spiked higher. Here's your headline: Median listing prices in Los Angeles have now fallen $149,000, or 25.8%, from their April 2006 peak.

Numbers: Housing tracker reports median listing prices fell from $439,999 to $429,900, marking a decline of 20.2% over the past year. That 20.2% rate of annual decline marks the highest rate of decline in this housing cycle. This tracks pretty close to median sales prices as reported by DataQuick: down 23.3% over the past year in Los Angeles, to $422,000.

Inventory of for-sale homes and condos rose by more than 3,000 units, to 45,493, and is pacing 8.2% ahead of year-ago levels.  That sharp rise broke a long streak during which inventory had stayed fairly flat.

Analysis: A decline in the median sales, or listing price, doesn't necessarily mean the value of a typical home has declined by the same amount. It suggests some decline in overall values, but also that the market of listings and sales is increasingly dominated by cheaper homes.  This is the foreclosure factor: more and more homes on the market are cheaper, foreclosed homes.

Date               Median listing price                      Inventory

4/06               $579,666                                      27,251
4/07               $545,000                                      35,489
5/07               $545,000                                      38,297
6/07               $540,000                                      40,766 (up 20.4% y/y)
7/07               $535,000                                      42,685 (up 14.5% y/y)
8/07               $529,000                                      44,483 (up 13.6% y/y)
9/07               $520,000                                      46,414 (up 16.9% y/y)
10/07             $510,000                                      46,603 (up 15.6% y/y)
11/07             $499,900                                      46,503 (up 19.0% y/y)
12/07             $495,000 (down 10.0% y/y)      43,174 (up 28.2% y/y)
1/08               $479,900 (down 12.6%)            40,850 (up 33.3% y/y)
2/08               $475,000 (down 13.5%)            43,625 (Up 38.3%)
3/08               $464,900 (down 15.5%)            42,098 (Up 31.4%)
4/08               $450,000 (down 17.4%)            42,430 (up 16.7%)
5/08               $449,900 (down 17.4%)            42,532 (up 11.1%)
6/02/08         $446,500 (down 17.3%)            42,458 (up 4.9%)
6/09/08         $440,000 (down 18.5%)            42,398 (up 4.0%)
6/23/08         $429,990 (down 20.2%)            45,493 (up 8.2%)

Your thoughts? Comments? E-mail story tips to peter.viles@latimes.com.

Comments

[tealeaf]

uh oh.

shockg is running out of excuses.

[shockg]

Analysis: A decline in the median sales, or listing price, doesn't necessarily mean the value of a typical home has declined by the same amount. It suggests some decline in overall values, but also that the market of listings and sales is increasingly dominated by cheaper homes. This is the foreclosure factor: more and more homes on the market are cheaper, foreclosed homes.

And that is the reason the most vocal, angry and greedy speculators here (Teabag, Laker) will never see their agenda fully materialize. If they sold their home in 05 for the chance at 15% off in the better areas than I stand corrected. If they aspire to be a proud homeowner in Watts or Compton than I stand correted as well.

[BottomFisher]

Lower comps affect ALL houses. Just ask a bank for a loan and find out.

[tealeaf]

shock:

I would agree with you (esp on the foreclosure bit), if only the data backed you up.

Fact is, average sale price per foot is down as high as 27.6% in Irvine (average 16%) from Apr 06 to May 08.

I say again, that's Irvine, not Compton.

http://tinyurl.com/5fbddj

Go on, deride dataquick, doubt the sales figures, but you're running out of excuses. Pete's post proves your "inventory is flat" theory bunk, the facts prove your "Compton and Watts" line wrong, and the NOD data proves the high end areas are not immune.

for the record, our home sale was tied to a job change from south OC to the SFV. I have been highly candid on my personal situation, and laid claim to my terms of purchase, which are quickly materializing: parity with renting.

[pugtv]

ShockG,

Still waiting for you to back up your bitter rants. When are you going to invest in the CME market? If you are right, you can make a lot of money.

However, if you're wrong, greedy speculators like me can make a lot of money off you =)

So what do you say? Are you going to back up your bitter rants with money yet?

Btw, why are you so angry? Is it because you speculated and lost? Hahaha ...

[puckhead]

Sorry shockg, price for 75th% drop significantly and inventory spiked. Not a bullish sign at all. Ya gotta call em as you see them.

[Laker]

shockg, lookout below. Just for you, my last place is now worth about 20-25% less than it did when i sold it...ok?

Peter, I think you should update the post with saying something about the high end 75% losing $20,000....We haven't seen that in 4 months...
You mention foreclosures and low end, but keep in mind that even without any formal problem with the option ARM, there are many higher end $600,000-1,000,000 houses now in foreclosure....
In the last 4 months, the median was going down, low end was going down, but high end was steady or even slightly up (as a result of fresh new stratospheric wishing prices). Now, if high end is down $20k a week...watch out below!

As the incomes do not support high end prices in mass, 75% for LA is probably $400,000-500,000 tops. When we get there, we could start talking about bottoms.

[keith]

"This is the foreclosure factor: more and more homes on the market are cheaper, foreclosed homes."

I completely concur with this statement.

What happened to Lefty? Has he morphed into another persona? I really miss him.

[Fred]

Shockg - why don't you actually read the report instead of interpolating what you want to hear? It's nicely broken into tiers. The 25th percentile (those low-end foreclosures) is down $9,000 this past week. The 50th percentile is down $10,000. And here's the kicker: the 75th percentile is down $20,000 in one week. That's the biggest decline on record for the 75th percentile (the pricey houses).

In addition, inventory had a gargantuan spike this week. It's going to get really ugly, folks.

Here's the data - read for yourself: http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/
California/LosAngeles-LongBeach-SantaAna/
LosAngeles-LongBeach-Glendale

[Still on the sidelines]

He who lives by the comps, dies by the comps. The bubble was built on the practice of creating listing prices by adding $10k to last comparable sale in the neighborhood. The bubble will fizzle on the practice of creating listing prices by subtracting $10k from the last comparable sale in the neighborhood (which just so happens to have been a bank-owned foreclosure).

[John T Watts]

The longer buyers stay out of the market, waiting for the bottom, the lower prices will go.

[Rob Dawg]

Remember it takes a 35% rise in prices to erase a 20% drop.

[Tommy Boy]

Auugh! You are going to be priced out forever! Rent is throwing money away! $500 gets you in! Prices never go down! You are paying your landlord's mortgage! Buying a home on credit is the key to building wealth! It's priced under market value! It's got GRANITE for Pete's sake! Please, please, come baaaaack!

[Rob]

Rob Dawg Wrote:
"Remember it takes a 35% rise in prices to erase a 20% drop."

The average investor never realizes his loss.

I too miss Lefty, Tbone and Mike !!!

[tealeaf]

Sorry shockg, price for 75th% drop significantly and inventory spiked. Not a bullish sign at all. Ya gotta call em as you see them.

Posted by: puckhead | June 23, 2008 at 09:45 PM

Puckhead, you deserve serious respect for your honesty and candor. Fantastic example, and I commit to returning it in kind!

[Arti]

"The longer buyers stay out of the market, waiting for the bottom, the lower prices will go."

Not in Santa Monica, where for SFRs prices have held steady--not even a 5% decline from the very top. Yet . . .

[tag heuer]

has anyone actually checked out what is available in this mass of inventory. it's a ton of shit....listing after listing of corner lots on busy streets, ugly houses, houses built next to towering condos, etc.

take away all that and you're left with desirable homes are still too expensive and for the most part are selling close to asking price.

[desmo]

Shockg called me a speculater when I sold in 2005 and started renting, she failed to note that I bought in 1990.

[timd]

how many months of inventory is this?

[tealeaf]

tag

spend some time on irvinehousingblog, mb confidential, or some of the housing blogs that review listings on a daily basis.

it's far from, ahem, STUFF, that you describe and it is drastically discounted.

if your neighbor's comp doesn't get you, the NOD filed on the other side will.

[jag]

I think Shockg is Lefty. No matter how much evidence there's about the real estate downturn they both are in complete denial.

Arti, you always talk about Santa Monica real estate being intact in the downturn, but it is a matter of time.

I belive most of us bloggers are ready to purchase a home, but we are not dumb enough to pay high inflated prices. It appears that Leftyand Shockg are pist off about this.

[GDC]

I've been closely watching the high end markets on the Westside and SFV (south of Ventura) for about 3 years now. This recent data confirms my anecdotal observation. The desirable $1m + houses are not selling and the ones that sell do not fetch close to the asking price. Far from it. Even really nice homes on great streets are selling at 10% - 15% off the listing price. I think for these homes, it's just the beginning. I want to buy but I'll wait until early next year to re-assess.

[yours truly, Johnny Dollar]

Fat is fat.
I might be interested in dating a 325 pound woman
AFTER she loses 200 pounds (of fat).
The housing market still needs to spend more time
(a lot more time) on the tread mill.
Fat is fat.
I can hear Clara Peller now: "where's the beef?"

[Laker]

GDC,
just for you, check out this south of the bl in the SFV 5116 Bascule Ave
Woodland hills 91364.
2,755 sf 4/4 Nice house, 22000 sf flat lot just sold for $765,000 still expensive buy the other comps in the hood are in the $1M...and higher...Comp Killer....awch...

[Annon]

If Beverly Hills is having problems, then it's top to bottom folks:
_______________
AT THE LUXURY END, HOME PRICES ARE FALLING

The rich may indeed be like the rest of us. Prices of their homes are now falling too.

Gated mansions and hillside estates have held their own through most of the real estate slump, but data released Monday showed big drops in the region’s most exclusive neighborhoods.

Median sale prices fell by 13% in Beverly Hills in April, compared with the same month last year. Rancho Palos Verdes dropped 18% over the same period, while Newport Beach’s 92660 ZIP Code took a 34% hit, according to DataQuick Information Systems.

Experts say these areas and others are catching up with price declines that struck first in outlying suburbs such as the Antelope Valley and the Inland Empire, where many first-time home buyers purchased their properties with sub-prime loans.

“You can’t have one market hugely cheaper than another forever,” said UC Berkeley professor Thomas Davidoff, who specializes in real estate.

Davidoff and others say the time lag stems from the fact that affluent homeowners generally don’t have to sell under duress, unlike struggling borrowers facing escalating mortgage payments. But wealthy homeowners are increasingly finding out that if they want to sell their homes, they will need to discount the prices.

[Big E]

Are we seeing the fall-off already? All I have to say is, September is going to be U-G-L-Y..